Friday October 24

Valley View Stakes – Race 9 at Keeneland – Post Time 5:16 PM Eastern

Top Win Contenders: Tabiti, Play With Fire, Classic Q

Tibiti finished third of 12 in the tough Grade 2 Music City Stakes (September 6), her first race after moving to the U.S., for trainer Brad Cox. Tabiti earned her previous (July 30), winning in a field of 13, in the Group 3 Oak Tree Stakes. Group 3 European stakes are equivalent to Grade 2 in the U.S., and she fits perfectly in the Grade 2 Valley View Stakes. She earned her career-best Equibase Speed Figure, 109, in the Oak Tree Stakes, the fastest of any horse in this field, and now, in a second U.S. stakes, she should be considered the best.

Play With Fire finished her stakes with three top efforts, achieving a win or second-place finish, all races ridden by Prat, who will ride her in the Valley View. In her most recent effort, she tried hard but was beaten by half-length after encountering trouble. Her second and third efforts earned 100 and 101 figures to make her a contender.

Classic Q came out of the Music City in fourth, just half-length behind Tibiti. Classic Q was in 10th place in the first quarter, which is as far behind as she has been in any race. She ran second, beaten by a neck on  July 25, before the Music City. For this race and one earlier, she earned top figures of 101 and 100.

Handicapper Picks:

Win: Tibiti for a win bet at fair odds, at 9 to 5 odds.
Play With Fire and Classic Q can be considered for win bets at 5 to 2 odds.

Saturday October 25, 2025
Bryan Station Stakes – Race 9  at Keeneland – Post Time 4:44 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender: Tenacious Leader
Other contenders: Plensa, Giocoso, Troubleshooting, Golden Afternoon, Salamia

Tenacious Leader won three weeks ago, after a 10-month layoff. That win came with a 105 Equibase Speed Figure on the Keeneland turf.  Last August (2024), Tenacious Leader was nearly beaten by a neck in the What Anticipation Stakes on turf. Tenacious Leader had been a strong contender last November in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Stakes; he chose to run in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (dirt) instead, but finished sixth of 11. He had some issues, which allowed some time to come back, but trainer Pletcher has put Tenacious Leader in the Bryan Station Stakes, and this is a significant short. That race is hard to get a horse to win off a layoff, and he was headed to hold the runner-up by a head at the wire. This horse is likely to run even better in his second race.

There are five more horses I would also consider, all having run first or second in stakes on turf in their recent races. Plensa earned a win in the Gun Runner Stakes last month with a 102 Equibase Speed Figure after a 96-figure in his previous race; he is improving. Giocoso finished second in the same race, earning a 101 figure. Troubleshooting won the Franklin-Simpson Stakes last month with a 109, top figure in this field, with runner-placed Golden Afternoon only half-length behind, earning a 108 figure. Both horses show a pattern of improvement. Salamia won the recent Gio Pioni Stakes, also having improved to a 102 figure.

Handicapper Picks:

Win: Tenacious Leader is considered a win bet at fair odds, at 3 to 1 odds.

I think any of the five considered – Plensa, Giocoso, Troubleshooting, Golden Afternoon, Salamia – on any one of or even two horses, at odds of 6 to 1.
Exacta: There are many ways to go, but I think Tenacious Leader will be first or second, so I will play both:
Tenacious Leader over Plensa, Giocoso, Troubleshooting, Golden Afternoon, Salamia
Plensa, Giocoso, Troubleshooting, Golden Afternoon, Salamia over Tenacious Leader

Hagyard Fayette – Race 9 at Keeneland – Post Time 5:16 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender: Moonlight
Other contenders: Dragoon Guard, Gosger

Moonlight was a promising two-year-old, winning his second race (September 2023) while jogging to an eight-length lead. In his third career effort he finished second in the Street Sense Stakes (September 2023). In his fourth career finish in the Remson (December 2023), Moonlight finished behind the top three-year-olds, Dornoch (winner) and Sierra Leone (second). After that, Moonlight finished poorly (ninth) in the Risen Star in February (2024) and was no longer a contender for the Derby. Then he had seven poor efforts, including four tries on turf. Then this year, as a four-year-old, he hit his stride, winning three straight wins in four races.  His last race, September 28, came off a nearly four-month layoff; this recent effort gained a 114 Equibase Speed Figure. That is the best not only of his most recent, but also the best race of any of his recent 10 entries.  He can do better in the Fayette, his second race coming off his layoff. Gaffalione will be riding him again after his first win last month.

Dragoon Guard placed in his maiden then won his next four races and came in third in his last race of 2024 before an eight-month layoff. Last year, Dragoon Guard won the Indiana Derby and the West Virginia Derby after having won the nine-furlong Fayette Stakes. His Equibase Speed Figures this year include one earning, which was strong, two faster efforts, 108 and 109. His last race was easy at 93; it was just a race to tell him to have an easy time in this race.

Gosger in this year’s Pennsylvania Derby had his only finish worse than first or second in five career races. It is interesting that Dragoon Guard also had his worst finish in the Pennsylvania Derby in the year prior (2024). Gosger finished with 108 paired figures behind the horse handicapping division leader, Journalist.

Handicapper Picks:

Win: Moonlight for a win bet at fair odds, at 5 to 2 odds.
Dragoon Guard and Gosger can be considered for win bets at 7 to 2 odds.