Key Races & Bets for Saturday October 19th, 2024
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Race 8 at Keeneland - Post Time 4:44 PM Eastern
Top Win Contender: Paros
Other contenders: Bold Discovery, Dripping Gold, Taking Candy, Irish Aces
Paros just ran the best race of his career, in his 16th career start, but more importantly first for Mike Maker off the claim. He had won two in a row prior to that, all on turf, then on 9/1 at Saratoga the horse showed a visually impressive turn of foot going from seventh, to fifth, to the lead with a strong 111 Equibase Speed Figure and sensational 22.2 last quarter mile. He’s likely to improve upon as he moves up in class just one step from NW2X to NW3X and gets the rail to save ground before launching his late bid.
Bold Discovery makes his U.S. debut after importing from Ireland and gets Lasix. He’s a Kentucky Bred who won a GROUP 3 stakes in May and he just ran one month ago so may not suffer from needing a race like many European imports do. Dripping Gold won at the one lower NW2X level by six lengths last month at Kentucky Downs and has a win at Keeneland. The 110 Equibase Speed Figure earned is right there with the 111 Paros earned recently and the 109 figure Bold Discovery earned in his last win so Dripping Gold must be considered a contender, but his 3 to 1 starting odds are much lower than the other two. Taking Candy has finished first or second in four straight and that’s why he starts at 7 to 2. He fires often and should once again but the value for a win bet may not be there compared to Paros and Bold Discovery. Irish Aces won a year ago here at Keeneland at the NW1X level and earned his third career win in the restricted Tapit Stakes at the end of August. He has been in the money in seven of 10 career turf races and Gaffalione, who rides today, has been aboard for his last two wins.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Paros at 5 to 2 or more
Bold Discovery, for a lesser amount than on Paros, at 7 to 2 or more.
When betting more than one horse to win, an edge can be obtained by pro-rating your bets to obtain the same profit. This is called “Dutching” and there’s an easy to use “Dutching” tool at Amwager where you set the total amount you want to bet and all the math is done for you.
Double:
Race 8: Paros
Race 9: My Mane Squeeze, Fibber, Haulin Ice, Emery
Race 8: Paros, Bold Discovery, Dripping Gold, Taking Candy, Irish Aces
Race 9: My Mane Squeeze
Athenia Stakes - Race 10 at Aqueduct (Belmont at the Big A) - Post Time 4:52 PM Eastern
Top Win Contender: Edict, Spirit and Glory
For exacta tickets: Child of the Moon, Prerequisite
Edict imports from Argentina where she won four of eight, including two wins in stakes versus males. She won the Group 1 Copa de Plata Roberto Vasquez Stakes in December, beating males in her first start against older and now she’s a more mature four year old. She’s been in regular training in New York and gets John Velazquez to ride. She’s won three of five on grass at distances ranging from seven furlong to a mile and one-quarter so this nine furlong trip is no big deal. Her last two wins in Argentina earned 108 and 105 Equibase Speed Figures which are far superior to any figures the other seven have earned and if she’s ready to run as it appears she could be very tough.
Spirit and Glory won the similar Plenty of Grace Stakes at Aqueduct in April, then nearly won the Grade 3 Beaugay Stakes (with a 102 figure) on this course in May, before going to Monmouth and finishing third after leading in deep stretch. Her race at the end of August at Kentucky Downs can be ignored as some horses just don’t run well over that twisting uphill and downhill course but back in New York, and with a sensational half-mile workout on 10/1 which was the best of 77 at the distance, and was 47.6, Spirit and Glory appears ready to run as well as she did over the course in the spring, which might be good enough to win particularly if Edict isn’t ready to run as expected off the layoff.
Child of the Moon and Prerequisite deserve mention. Child of the Moon has a neck defeat and a win in two races since importing from France and although her best effort yielded a 98 figure a few points short of the best figures for Edict and Spirit and Glory, she can still improve as a four yare old making her third start off a layoff and third since joining the Brown barn. Prerequisite won at Saratoga in September after 13 months off, under Prat, who also rode Child of the Moon to a win on the same day. Prat chooses Prerequisite and the 100 figure she earned should be bettered second off the layoff.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Edict should be considered for a win bet at 8 to 5 or more. Spirit and Glory can be considered for a second win bet, at 3 to 1 or more.
Exactas:
Edict and Spirit and Glory over Edict, Spirit and Glory Child of the Moon and Prerequisite
Edict, Spirit and Glory Child of the Moon and Prerequisite over Edict and Spirit and Glory
Raven Run Stakes - Race 9 at Keeneland - Post Time 5:16 PM Eastern
Top win contender: My Mane Squeeze
Other contenders: Fibber, Haulin Ice, Emery
My Mane Squeeze has won six of 12 races but around one turn she has won six of nine. Her best distance is the seven furlong trip of the Raven Run Stakes, as evidenced when winning the Eight Belles Stakes in May at this distance earning a career-best 100 Equibase Speed Figure at the time. My Mane Squeeze came close to that figure in her most recent race four weeks ago when victorious in the Dogwood Stakes by five lengths, earning a 96 figure which could have been higher had she needed to run faster to win. Prior to the Dogwood, My Mane Squeeze finished second in the Charles Town Oaks at this distance but that race was run around two turns. Jockey Luis Saez has been aboard for both of those significant wins this spring and summer and rides back, having chosen to ride this filly over Twirling Queen, who he has ridden to three wins this year. As such, My Mane Squeeze appears bound for another graded stakes win.
Fibber was no match for My Mane Squeeze in the Dogwood as she was two and one-half lengths behind her rival with an eighth of a mile to run and five lengths behind at the wire. Fibber won a highly rated allowance race in June, two races before the Dogwood, earning a career best 102 figure in the process, then won the Audubon Oaks at the distance of the Raven Run easily by two lengths with a 95 figure. Although regressing to an 86 figure in the Dogwood, Fibber has a shot to be competitive with My Mane Squeeze if running as fast as she did in June. Even if she doesn’t win, she is highly probable to finish second or third considering she has never finished worse than third in nine career dirt sprint races.
Haulin Ice apparently didn’t like the two-turns of the Charles Town Oaks, fading to seventh after racing fourth for most of the race. Prior to that she won the Azalea Stakes, at the distance of the Raven Run and earning a career-best 98 figure, bringing her career record around one turn to four wins and three runner-up finishes from seven races. Returning to one turn, Haulin Ice may return to the highly competitive form shown in these kinds of races to date.
Emery has won four of six starts, all around one turn. One of those wins came in the Leslie’s Lady Stakes at the distance of the Raven Run in June. Since that was run at Churchill Downs, we can compare it to the effort My Mane Squeeze put forth in the Eight Belles Stakes in May. Emery earned a 98 figure and My Mane Squeeze earned a 100 figure at the same distance. In her two subsequent races, Emery won the Victory Ride Stakes with a 98 figure and finished second in the Test Stakes with a 99 figure. Both of those were strong efforts, but not so strong she should be favored over My Mane Squeeze in this race, nor were those two efforts any better than the top recent efforts put forth by Fibber and Haulin Ice, who are likely to go to post at higher odds than Emery.
Handicapper Picks
Win:
My Mane Squeeze can be bet as low as 2 to 1, likely to be a low odds overlay.
Fibber and Haulin Ice can be considered for smaller win bets (than on My Mane Squeeze) at odds of 4 to 1 or more. In this case I’d likely bet the one at the highest odds of the two.
Using a dutching tool, the math is done for you when wagering on multiple horses to win as might be the case here.
Exactas:
Box Fibber, My Mane Squeeze, Haulin Ice
Box Emery, Fibber
Box Emery, Haulin Ice
The reason for the exactas above it there is little value in an exacta box between My Mane Squeeze and Emery
Trifecta:
My Mane Squeeze and Emery over Fibber and Haulin Ice over Fibber, My Mane Squeeze, Emery and Haulin Ice
