The Tampa Bay Derby

The Tampa Bay Derby

We have an exciting Saturday of racing probably led by The Tampa Bay Derby. The race offers 50 points to the winner towards the starting gate of The Kentucky Derby essentially assuring a birth in that race should the winner stay on track.

At Oaklawn Park we have Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna making her return in a field she figures to dominate. They still have to run the race.

For me The Tampa Bay Derby came down to four possible winners, three more likely than the other.

Sometimes the best horses don’t win and in The Tampa Bay Derby I see that type of scenario playing out. I think Chancer McPatrick and Hill Road are clearly the best and fastest two horses in the race. That said neither has to win and both have loftier goals going forward. Maybe that creates a scenario where we could beat them on Saturday knowing full well they won’t be nearly as easy to handle in their next starts. Both are coming back off the bench since the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Those who attended our Breeders’ Cup Seminar will know I liked Hill Road that day at 61-1 and he ran third. He did that on a speed track against a wire to wire winner who has gone on to prove himself. That was Hill Road’s first race on dirt and he handled fine and I have no doubt Chad Brown who took over his training subsequent to that race will move him up. That said I don’t think the pace scenario really favors him.

Chancer McPatrick does look better than these overall despite his sub-par effort in the Juvenile. I am willing to forgive that thinking the race did not set up well for him and possibly he did not care for Del Mar. It was also his first start around two-turns. Like Hill Road he can win but I don’t think the race shape really favors him either.

Patch Adams has a nice outside draw where Geroux can watch and stalk the action from. He should get the jump on Chad’s horses and maybe he can hod them off especially if the track is a little speed friendly. I do not believe at this point he is as good or fast as either Chancer McPatrick or Hill Road but under a heady ride and favorable conditions maybe he can get home.

Brodeur should be the clear pace setter in here. While I do not think he is good enough at this point speed is always dangerous and more so if they let Jose walk the dog on the front end which does happen often enough.

I think I will take a little shot with Patch Adams as my go back horse based on the trip but in a pick 5 I’d look for a nice single or two somewhere else in the sequence and use all three on ne ticket and only Patch Adams the go back horse on the other. I’ll gamble against Brodeur going all the way.

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