The Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup has always been one of my favorite fall turf races at Keeneland. This year’s edition has a little bit of everything.

Lauerelin tries to keep her unbeaten record intact, and you have to respect that. Each start she’s looked better and better and that is how her Thorograph sheet reads as well.

Then there’s Fionn, who has also done nothing but improve race by race. She keeps answering every question, and it’s hard not to admire her progression. She’s sharper now, finishing stronger each time, and her connections clearly have her going in the right direction. These two are clearly the ones they all have to beat. I think two have chances but I will take one.

Opulent Restraint and Lush Lips make things interesting. Both have danced some tough dances and proven themselves against quality company. Opulent Restraint always gives you an honest run, but I keep coming back to Lush Lips. She’s drawn the rail, and from there, I think she gets the trip. She has just enough tactical speed to save every inch of ground and should be able to slip through when the real running starts.

So while Lauerelin may have the flash and Fionn may be the “now” horse, I’m siding with Lush Lips to pull off a little upset. From the rail, with a perfect trip and her late kick, she might just turn the tables and grab the QE II crown.

Lauerelin will take plenty of money and likely go off favored, while Fionn should be a solid second choice. Those roles could flip but they will be first and second choice. That makes Lush Lips a fair value play if she is anywhere near 4-1 or better. I’ll take her to win and key her on top in exactas and triples and she’s the one I’ll lean on in late multi-race sequences like the Pick 4 and Pick 5.

I’ll take my chances that Lush Lips, saving ground every step from the inside, gets first run and proves best when it counts.