San Antonio Stakes – Race 6 at Santa Anita – Post Time 4:30 PM Eastern (1:30 Pacific)

Kiss Today Goodbye and Azul Coast finished second and first, respectively, and separated by a neck in the Grade 3 Native Diver Stakes last month at Del Mar. Those were huge efforts which can be repeated here, particularly as Kiss Today Goodbye won the 2020 San Antonio off a win at Del Mar one month earlier and Azul Coast ran the best race of his career two starts earlier this summer at Del Mar. The heavy favorite is going to be Hot Rod Charlie off his fourth place effort in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, which was his first start versus older. Considering no horse was going to beat Knicks Go, the way Hot Rod Charlie ran that race, relaxed in fourth early then moving up after a mile to second before tiring, was certainly a good effort. Just the same the 112 Equibase Figure was IDENTICAL to the figures Azul Coast and Kiss Today Goodbye earned two weeks later, and except for the 120 figure Hot Rod Charlie earned in the Pennsylvania Derby, his other races are not better than the other two win contenders. Both Kiss Today Goodbye and Azul Coast are four year olds and have as much right to improve and run new career best efforts at Hot Rod Charlie, certainly at better odds.

The KEY to Kiss Today Goodbye getting back into top form in the Native Diver (after three poor efforts following his win in this race last year) was adding blinkers and a jockey change to Desormeaux. I’ve always felt if we can identify the reason for form reversal we are better able to predict if that form will hold, and in this case it should. Azul Coast is part of an uncoupled entry from the Baffert barn, with Eight Rings, who in spite of taking blinkers off will go as hard and fast as he can from the start as that’s the only way he wins. He pressed the pace in the Native Diver then got run over late when third behind Kiss Today Goodbye and Azul Coast, so even with the blinkers off he looks unable to hold off the stalkers and closers here.

Bets:

Win bets: Kiss Today Goodbye and Azul Coast (either or both) at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

We will use Hot Rod Charlie on double and pick three tickets played because he can win but he is not a good win bet.

When we consider wagers on two or more overlays from fair (minimum odds), we can and should adjust our bets accordingly in order to maximize our profit both in the short term and in the long term. That can be best accomplished by using a “Dutching Tool” like the one which is free and easy to use at Amwager.com. A Dutching tool lets you set the amount you want to bet or the amount you want to win, then based on the odds your bets are proportioned accordingly. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Exactas:

Box Kiss Today Goodbye and Azul Coast.

Box Hot Rod Charlie, Kiss Today Goodbye and Azul Coast.

Doubles:

Race 6: Hot Rod Charlie, Kiss Today Goodbye and Azul Coast.

Race 7: Law Professor

Race 6: Hot Rod Charlie, Kiss Today Goodbye and Azul Coast.

Race 7: Tarantino, Law Professor

Pick 3s:

Race 6: Hot Rod Charlie, Kiss Today Goodbye and Azul Coast.

Race 7: Law Professor

Race 8: ALL

Race 6: Hot Rod Charlie, Kiss Today Goodbye and Azul Coast.

Race 7: Tarantino, Law Professor

Race 8: Canoodling, Private Mission, Missy P

Santa Anita Mathis Mile Stakes – Race 7 at Santa Anita – Post Time 5 PM Eastern (2 Pacific)

Law Professor sticks out in this race in my opinion, but Tarantino is just a smidge away from being as good so he will be the other win contender. Law Professor ran a BREAKOUT race in his most recent start on 11/27, off a five month layoff. He was just one for five before that effort and had tried turf for the first time in the race before the layoff, finishing third of eight with a mild rally. Returning as a much more mature horse last month, and facing older at this mile turf trip, this three year old rallied from eighth of 11 early and poured it on late while five wide into the stretch, running the last quarter mile in a sizzling 22.6 seconds while earning a career best, and more importantly, field high 108 Equibase figure. That figure is very likely to be improved upon in the horse’s second start off the layoff and Jose Ortiz (who was in Southern California for the big stakes on 11/27) rides back. As such I expect Law Professor to inhale the field again today and earn his first stakes win.

Tarantino ran BIG in the first three starts of his career, all on grass, from September of last year through December, including a nose defeat in the Zuma Beach Stakes on this turf course in only the second start of his career. His connections got cute thereafter and tried the Derby Trail and even though Tarantino ran okay for second in the Holy Bull Stakes he ran poorly in two thereafter and had to go on the sidelines. Similar to Law Professor, when returning from seven months off in late October, and back on grass, Tarantino rallied strongly from 10th of 11 to get third, after completely blowing the start by being unprepared. He’s shipped into California and put in two superb five furlong workouts and the 104 Equibase figure is in range of Law Professor so in the event both step forward but Law Professor does not make as big an improvement as Tarantino, this colt could get the win.

Bets:

Win Bets: Law Professor at odds of 5 to 2 or more AND Tarantino to win at 7 to 2 or more.

This is another race where, when wagering on two horses for the best mathematical edge, a DUTCHING tool like the one at Amwager, really helps us maximize the value for our win bets.

Exactas: Box Law Professor and Tarantino

Doubles:

Race 7: Law Professor

Race 8: ALL

Race 7: Tarantino, Law Professor

Race 8: Canoodling, Private Mission, Missy P

Race 7: Law Professor

Race 8: Canoodling, Private Mission, Missy P

La Brea Stakes – Race 8 at Santa Anita – Post Time 5:30 PM Eastern (2:30 Pacific)

If the race goes as drawn, or if at least Kalypso and Livingmybestlife both run, there is going to be a very hot and contested early pace battle because NEITHER of those two fillies has any intention of sitting second in the early stages. Then there’s Brilliant Cut, who stalked a fast pace in second early in her most recent race and who may also be up front today on a fast pace. Even Private Mission and Missy P, two of three horses I think can win, haven’t really been any further back than second early in ANY of their eight combined dirt races. That puts shipper Canoodling in a great spot to post the upset, the main reason she’s going to be a longshot that she ships in from New Mexico. However, this Kentucky bred daughter of Pioneer of the Nile started her career on this circuit, breaking her maiden EASILY by two lengths before moving to the midwest and then the south earlier this year. She’s won FIVE of her last seven dirt races including a powerful three length win at this seven furlong trip in August. Regular rider Chirinos rides but the filly transferred to the strong barn of Mike Puype and put in a very nice five furlong workout (16th best of 101) coming into the race. Her three best efforts recently yielded 92-94 Equibase figures, not far from the 97 figure Livingmybestlife earned winning a pair of stakes recently, not far from the 97 figure Kalypso earned when second in the Grade 2 Las Virgenes Stakes this past winter and not far from the 98 figure Private Mission earned winning the Grade 2 Zenyatta Stakes in October. All in all, Canoodling fits with these and will likely go to post at odds much higher than are reasonable given her probability to win.

Missy P has only run twice on dirt and both were “A” efforts in March, and in May. She won by nine lengths in her debut with a 97 figure then earned a 94 figure when second in a stakes at this seven furlong trip two months later. She ran poorly on turf in an irrelevant race in June and returns to dirt off a six month layoff ready to run big for Mandella, who gave her a very strong seven furlong workout coming into the race.

Private Mission won both the Torrey Pines Stakes and Zenyatta Stakes after sitting in second for the first part of the race, the same way she won her debut sprint at Santa Anita 14 months ago. She was allowed to run the opening half-mile in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff in 44.8 seconds, a complete disaster, before ending up last of 11 and we can ignore that race as Prat will not make that mistake again, and as she cuts back from a route to a sprint, where Baffert has a very strong 9 for 26 (33%) record in stakes including Charlatan in last year’s Malibu Stakes.

Bets:

Win bets: Canoodling and Missy P (either or both) at odds of 5 to 2 or more.

(Again, this is an appropriate race to DUTCH win bets between the two horses if they both are at or above minimum odds near post time. The Dutching tool at Amwager.com makes this very easy and is just one of many tools, and perks, for the bettor. )

We will use Private Mission on double and pick three tickets started in earlier races because she can win but she is not a good win bet.

Exactas: Box Canoodling, Missy P and Private Mission