Vagrancy Handicap – Race 7 at Belmont – Post Time 4:32 PM Eastern

This four race sequence of stakes starts with a predictable race in which the two starting favorites, Chalon and Come Dancing, have a significantly higher probability to win than the other five. The best way to make money in a race like this is in doubles and pick 3s. You could also play the pick 5 but I didn’t handicap the last race in the sequence (11) for the blog.

Chalon finished second in this race in 2018, after making the lead late in the stretch, and she’s done little wrong since then, having finished first or second in four of five races last year. If you exclude the race in October which led to the layoff she’s coming back from today, Chalon run four “A” races in a row including when winning off a layoff in May very similar to the one she’s coming back from today. She doesn’t need the lead to win and can sit in third or fourth behind likely early leader Jakarta then take over and battle with Come Dancing to the wire. The race I’m looking for her to repeat which is good enough to win was last July when second in the Honorable Miss Stakes at Saratoga with a career-best 112 figure, that figure as good as all but one of Come Dancing’s best figures.

Come Dancing ran the worst race of her career when 12th of 14 in the Apple Blossom in April and the second worse race of her career when sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint in November before the five month layoff into the Apple Blossom. She’s definitely past those two poor efforts with a sensational work tab at Belmont including a 47 half mile and a blistering 57.8 five furlong drill. Castellano gets back on and rode her to the second best race she ever ran when winning the Gallant Bloom Stakes last September, at this distance and on this track so she should run back to that effort here.

Bets:
This is definitely a situation where low odds overlay win bets can be made but only “IF” the horse are at or above minimum odds.

Win: Chalon at odds of 6/5 or more. Come Dancing at odds of 7 to 5 or more.

When making multiple win bets, use a “Dutching” tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Pick 3:
Race 7: Chalon, Come Dancing
Race 8: Call Me Love, Mrs. Sippy, Mean Mary
Race 9: Midnightcharly, Wait for It, Promises Fulfilled, Firenze Fire

Double:
Race 7: Chalon, Come Dancing
Race 8: Call Me Love, Mrs. Sippy, Mean Mary

New York Stakes – Race 8 at Belmont – Post Time 5:04 PM Eastern

Call Me Love, a group 2 stakes winner in Italy last fall, made her U.S. debut 24 days ago at Belmont in the Grade 3 Beaugay Stakes at 1 1/16 miles which appears to absolutely have been a prep for this mile and one-quarter race. She ran pretty well considering she had been off for seven months and was running much shorter than nearly all her overseas races, finishing second to multiple grade 1 stakes winner Rushing Fall and clearly ahead by almost three lengths over the next horse. She loves this 10 furlong trip, with a five-for-six record, including that group 2 win with a 111 Equibase figure which very likely will be improved upon second off the layoff. Irad Ortiz, Jr. getting on cinches the top pick.

Mrs. Sippy imported to the U.S. last August and won the Grade 2 Glens Falls Stakes at Saratoga pretty easily, then missed by only three quarters of a length to the exceptional Sister Charlie in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl Stakes at this 10 furlong trip. After a poor ninth in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf, Mrs. Sippy went on the shelf but considering she won a grade 2 stakes off a layoff last summer there’s no concern she can’t run as well here and if she does and if Call Me Love doesn’t improve off her U.S. debut Mrs. Sippy can win as she earned a 118 figure in the Glens Falls.

Mean Mary is the one the other two contenders have to run down to win after easily leading from start to finish in two stakes races in January and March. Saez rides back and there’s little doubt Mean Mary will have no company for the first mile here as no other horse has her running style. She earned back-to-back 105 figures so will need to improve to get to the 110+ range of the other two but a “lone frontrunner” like her is capable of doing just that.

Bets:
Note: Similar to the seventh race, there is likely more profit opportunity in making double and pick 3 bets here and cashing the double bets started in race seven while moving through to the third leg of the pick 3 started in the previous race as well.

Win: Call Me Love at odds of 9 to 5 or more.
Mrs. Sippy at odds of 3 to 1 or more.
Mean Mary at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

When making multiple win bets, use a “Dutching” tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Pick 3:
Race 8: Call Me Love, Mrs. Sippy, Mean Mary
Race 9: Midnightcharly, Wait for It, Promises Fulfilled, Firenze Fire
Race 10: Zofelle, Uni, Beau Recall, Got Stormy, Newspaperofrecord

Doubles:
Race 8: Call Me Love, Mrs. Sippy, Mean Mary
Race 9: Midnightcharly, Wait for It, Promises Fulfilled, Firenze Fire

True North Stakes – Race 9 at Belmont – Post Time 5:36 PM Eastern

Among this four race stakes sequence, this race, the True North Stakes, is the most likely to make or break today’s bet in terms of making a profit in doubles and pick 3s. Both Midnightcharly and Wait For It, opening at 20/1 and 12/1, respectively, can post the upset. The other two win contenders, Firenze Fire and Promises Fulfilled, open at much lower odds and as you’ll see in the exotic wagering section if we can split them we can make more money in this race. Both Midnightcharly and Wait for It are shipping in from Pennsylvania for trainer Coletti and both have the same owner. They’re an uncoupled entry because there are no coupled entries in stakes. Midnightcharly gets Castellano and Wait for It gets last week’s national jockey of the week, Manny Franco (who guided Tiz the Law to win the Belmont last Saturday). These are two hard-knocking sprinters with a combined record of 13 wins and 11 seconds in 36 races and nearly $700K in the bank. Midnightcharly ran on from last of eight to second behind Firenze Fire in the Fabulous Strike Stakes last November and can fire fresh with a very good pair of recent works and a 109 top figure, while Wait for It is a bit more of a middle distance horse who should be rolling late on the cut back to six and one-half furlongs, his best effort garnering a 113 figure in January. BOTH were scratched to run here, Midnightcharly from the G1 Carter and Wait for It from the G3 Westchester. As they form an entry, although not coupled in the betting, if we bet one we must bet the other as well.

Promises Fulfilled only has one way to go, to the front, the style which has accounted for his seven career wins, the most recent in the nearly identical Nerud Stakes at Belmont 11 months ago. He comes back from an eight month layoff and should be very fresh so likely to lead from the start, perhaps too fast for his own good, perhaps not. Firenze Fire is approaching the $2 million mark in career earnings but comes in off a real dud when fourth, beaten 12 lengths, in the Carter. It was probably the sloppy track he hated as the reason BUT then he was one of the horses which left the Servis barn when that trainer was indicted in March. Firenze Fire gets Irad and his G3 General George Stakes win in February earned a 112 figure so if he can repeat the effort he should be right there at the end.

Bets:
Win: Midnightcharly and Wait for It at 4 to 1 or more.

When making multiple win bets, use a “Dutching” tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Exactas:
All over Midnightcharly and Wait for It (this is instead of the place bet above because, particularly if one of the favorites wins, it will likely pay more than if you bet the same amount of money to place.

Midnightcharly and Wait for It over Midnightcharly, Wait for It, Promises Fulfilled and Firenze Fire.
Midnightcharly, Wait for It, Promises Fulfilled and Firenze Fire over Midnightcharly and Wait for It.

Trifectas:
Midnightcharly and Wait for It over Midnightcharly, Wait for It, Promises Fulfilled and Firenze Fire over Midnightcharly, Wait for It, Promises Fulfilled and Firenze Fire.

Promises Fulfilled and Firenze Fire over Midnightcharly and Wait for It over Midnightcharly, Wait for It, Promises Fulfilled and Firenze Fire.
(This bet splits the favorites because there’s no value in Promises Fulfilled and Firenze Fire finishing first and second).

Doubles:
Race 9: Midnightcharly, Wait for It, Promises Fulfilled, Firenze Fire
Race 10: Zofelle, Uni, Beau Recall, Got Stormy, Newspaperofrecord

Just a Game Stakes – Race 10 at Belmont – Post Time 6:08 PM Eastern

Although Newspaperofrecord came back huge to win the Intercontinental Stakes on 6/6 following 11 months off, that was seven furlongs and I’m not convinced 1. She can get an easy lead with Valedictorian inside her in the gate and 2. She’s as good at a mile as others in here. She opens at 8/5 and so if we beat her there’s money to be made although Uni, who opens at 7/5, is a strong miler (7 for 8).

Still, I’m going to start with Zofelle, who ran huge in the Mint Julep last month at Churchill, beaten a head and a neck on the wire. She’s better at a mile than that 1 1/16 mile trip, evidenced by her huge closing finish in the Sand Springs prior to that where she ran the last ¼ mile in sub 22 seconds, and that’s as good as Uni, who opens at 7 to 5 compared to 12/1 for Zofelle. Zofelle is a lightly raced four year old second off a layoff and already a stakes winner in the states, who gets Castellano for a very sharp trainer in Walsh, and she can run past most of these, if not all, in the stretch at sweet odds plus she gets six pounds from the favorite which can’t hurt her chances one bit.

Uni won her 2019 debut (of a similar long layoff) in a non-graded stakes so this is a tougher ask but I’ll not question Brown, who wins with nearly 33% of his turf route starters who have been away for six months or more. Rosario has been up for five wins from six races and the filly is seven for eight at a mile with some really strong last quarter fractions of 22 and 21.8. She is the one to beat on paper but she’s not unbeatable, and she offers no value for win bets.

Beau Recall finished ninth in the Mint Julep which Zofelle nearly won but she lot all tactical position at the start when she was bothered by another horse and began 11th. Two before that she won the G2 Yellow Ribbon Handicap last summer at Del Mar when fourth early, and she won the Distaff Turf Mile on Derby Day last spring so she’s got the right to run big in spite of opening at 10/1.

We can and should use Got Stormy and Newspaperofrecord on multi-race bets like the double and pick 3 because of the value offered in the ninth race, and we should use them both on exacta and trifecta tickets as well.

Bets:
Win: Zofelle and Beau Recall at odds of 7/2 or more.

When making multiple win bets, use a “Dutching” tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Exactas:
Zofelle over Beau Recall, Got Stormy, Newspaperofrecord and Uni
Beau Recall, Got Stormy, Newspaperofrecord and Uni over Zofelle

Beau Recall, Uni and Zofelle over Beau Recall, Got Stormy, Newspaperofrecord and Uni over Zofelle

Trifecta: Zofelle over Beau Recall, Got Stormy, Newspaperofrecord and Uni over ALL.