Key Horse Races & Expert Handicapper Bets - January 02, 2021
Limehouse Stakes – Race 7 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 3:11 PM Eastern
I really like stakes races for two year olds in the fall and by the same token, for three year olds in the winter and this is one of them. In this race we get an eight horse field full of horses which have shown only a need-the-lead style. Young horses rarely change their styles, or perhaps I should say many trainers don’t know how to get horses to change their styles, so in this case there could be up to FIVE horses wanting the lead. Of the remaining three, Runway Magic sticks out, and “IF” his post time odds are anywhere near his 7/2 morning line odds he would be a low odds overlay and a gift. Runway Magic just ran his best race ever, in his third career start, at seven furlongs. Cutting back to six furlongs gives him some extra energy late compared to others and as he made a big middle-move from sixth to second into the stretch before dominating after that, he’s really set up well to win today under Leparoux, who was up last time out.
Ocean Ride and Drain the Clock are the two other horses which aren’t need-the-lead types and can get a piece but don’t appear to be anywhere near as fast, or have the same improvement to show us, as Runway Magic. Just the same I’ll box them in the exacta with the top pick and use them a bit on double and pick three tickets played.
Handicapper Picks
Win:
Runway Magic to win at 3 to 2 or more
Exactas:
Box Runway Magic and Ocean Ride.
Box Runway Magic and Drain the Clock
Double:
Race 7 – Runway Magic
Race 8 – Floriform, Crew Dragon and American Great
Double:
Race 7 – Runway Magic, Ocean Ride, Drain the Clock
Race 8 – Floriform, Crew Dragon and American Great
Pick 3:
Race 7 – Runway Magic
Race 8 – Floriform, Crew Dragon and American Great
Race 9 –Honey Pants, Karakatsie and Con Lima
Pick 3:
Race 7 – Runway Magic, Ocean Ride, Drain the Clock
Race 8 – Floriform, Crew Dragon and American Great
Race 9 –Honey Pants, Karakatsie and Con Lima
Note: Race 8 is a maiden race I included on double and pick three tickets above but otherwise have nothing to write about.
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Ginger Brew Stakes – Race 9 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 4:13 PM Eastern
This stakes for two year olds is at a mile on turf and so preference must be given to those which have run on the grass and particularly those which have run two-turns on turf. Honey Pants fits the first of the two criteria and there’s little doubt she’s bred to run this far. She was in an irrelevant dirt sprint first out and finished sixth but moved up considerably to win by four lengths second out in a turf sprint then finished second in a stakes at Aqueduct last time out, also a turf sprint. That effort earned her a field high and career best 95 Equibase figure and she’s on a pattern to run even better, particularly with 2020 North American leading jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. getting on for the first time, particularly for Clement, as they have a very strong 7 for 17 record at GP over the last year.
ALL that being said, Karakatsie opens at much higher odds (12/1) vs 3/1 for Honey Pants and is absolutely the better win bet of the pair (trio when all is said and done) of contenders to win this race. She won at a mile, on turf, at Gulfstream, in her one and only start. That earned an 89 figure. Honey Pants went from 86 to 95 in her second turf start and we can expect similar improvement from this filly, hence giving her a legitimate shot to post the upset.
Con Lima rounds out the trio of win contenders. She ran five times on dirt last summer and fall, NEVER worse than second in all five including two stakes. Those stakes were BOTH scheduled for turf. When she finally got to run on grass, last month, she dominated by five lengths. Even with Irad Ortiz, Jr. getting off, Paco Lopez getting on is just fine with me and with no other “Early” pace type in the race this filly is going to try to control the tempo from the start just as she did last month at this distance over the track, perhaps successfully.
Handicapper Picks
Win:
Karakatsie to win at 3 to 1 or more.
“IF” Honey Pants or Con Lima are 3 to 1 or more near post time the one at the highest odds of the pair can be bet to win as well.
If that becomes the case, This is the perfect race for using a “Dutching” tool like the free one at Amwager, because it will allocate the win bets based on odds, putting more on the lower odds horse automatically. That is just one of many other great features and perks at Amwager.com
Exacta:
Box Karakatsie, Honey Pants and Con Lima
Double:
Race 9 –Honey Pants, Karakatsie and Con Lima
Race 10 – Easy Time, Mutasaabeq, Pickin’ Time and Big Thorn
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Mucho Macho Man Stakes – Race 10 at Gulfstream – Post Time 4:45 PM Eastern
Pickin’ Time didn’t like the slop in the Remsen Stakes last month, or perhaps the two-turns, but the return to one turn over a likely fast track gives him every shot to return to the form shown just before that on 11/8/20 when he won the Nashua Stakes, a one-turn mile just like this one. He won a stakes prior to that and was second in another stakes before that, so he fits perfectly at the level. He’s got a stalking style and the 92 Equibase figure earned in the Nashua is as good as the 92 figure Mutasaabeq earned winning the Bourbon Stakes (on turf) so Pickin’ Time fits on all counts and is the one to beat in my opinion.
Big Thorn is a strong contender as well. Even though he beat a statebred restricted field when last seen he did so easily by four and one-half lengths under Lopez, who rides back and who also rode him to a five length maiden win prior to that. He won at seven furlongs last out so the one-turn mile is not an issue and his pattern of improving figures (72 to 81 to 89) suggests he can run as fast as Pickin’ Time.
There’s no way Easy Time is going to go to post anywhere near his 12/1 starting odds. On the other hand, he should be around 5 to 2 or 3 to 1 given his probability to win and we will likely get a nice overlay over those odds. He’s only run once, back in October, at seven furlongs and over the all-weather at Woodbine. He showed a lot of maturity that day stalking in fourth and drawing off late under wraps and the fact Jose Ortiz takes the call on this son of HOT sire Not This Time suggests he’s going to improve a lot since we last saw him three months ago.
On the double tickets started in race 9 I’m reluctantly using Mutasaabeq off his Bourbon Stakes win, but I think the 5/2 morning line is low and his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf effort was horrible at 5 to 1. He is bred to run well on dirt but didn’t when beaten 12 in the Hopeful Stakes (at seven furlongs) in September.
Handicapper Picks
Win:
Pickin’ Time at 5 to 2 or more
Big Thorn at 5 to 2 or more
Easy Time at 3 to 1 or more.
This is the perfect race for using a “Dutching” tool like the free one at Amwager, because it will allocate the win bets based on odds, putting more on the lower odds horse automatically. That is just one of many other great features and perks at Amwager.com
Exacta:
Box Pickin’ Time, Big Thorn and Easy Time’
