Key Horse Races & Expert Handicapper Bets - January 23, 2021
La Prevoyante Stakes – Race 8 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 3:09 PM Eastern
Cap de Creus and Always Shopping both share the Pletcher barn and both have credentials to win, but Cap de Creus opens at 12/1 while Always Shopping opens at 3/1 and as such there’s profit to be made using them both. Cap de Creus finished third of nine in the Via Borghese Stakes over the course last month, won by Always Shopping, but Cap de Creus had significant traffic trouble with an eighth of a mile to go as a horse came over in front of her, causing John Velazquez to check hard, losing all momentum. Cap de Creus then finished with interest for third and even though her career turf record is 1-7-1 in 15 races I believe with a better trip she can turn the tables on her stablemate and post the upset. Always Shopping has run three “A” races in a row since blinkers were added including a head defeat in the identical Dowager Stakes in October. She runs second off the layoff and Irad Ortiz, Jr. rides back so she doesn’t need any talking up and will be a strong contender. Sister Hanan may be worth a look as a gem of consistency who has never been worse than second once (when third) in her six career starts since her debut on dirt. The six since have all been on grass and she too is running second off a layoff and could make some noise, opening at 12/1.Handicapper Picks
Win: Always Shopping to win at 2/1 or more and Cap de Creus to win at 7 to 2 or more. When making multiple win bets, use a “Dutching” tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. A Dutching tool lets you set the amount you want to bet or the amount you want to win, then based on the odds your bets are proportioned accordingly. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features. I would make a token ($5 or $10) bet on Sister Hanan to win at odds of 5/1 or more. Exacta: Always Shopping, Sister Hanan and Cap de Creus over Always Shopping, Sister Hanan, Cap de Creus, Lovely Lucky, Heavenly Curlin and Traipsing Double: Race 8: Always Shopping, Sister Hanan, Cap de Creus Race 9: ThisismytimeGet up to $500 signup bonus and cashback rewards when you bet with AmWager.
Inside Information Stakes – Race 9 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 3:40 PM Eastern
Thisismytime is every bit the KEY OVERLAY win bet on the card. Opening at 7 to 2, she should be 3 to 2 in my opinion as she sticks out like a sore thumb in this field. Although she won just two of her first seven races, her last two efforts have been spectacular and I expect even better in her first start as a four year old. She won the Millions Filly and Mare Turf Preview (which was taken off turf and run on dirt) by almost 11 lengths, at this seven furlong trip, then she showed the same form easily defeating allowance company last month. The 110 and 101 figures are by far the best last two figures in the field, and HIGHER than the figures horses in the Grade 3 Sugar Swirl or Grade 3 Rampart earned. Zayas has been up for three of her four career wins and the filly can win on the lead or from just off the pace so if another horse wants to go fast early that won’t diminish her chances to succeed.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Thisismytime to win at 3 to 2 or more, a true low odds overlay KEY BET.
Exacta: Thisismytime over Dream Marie, Cinnabunny, Bronx Beauty, Piedi Bianchi and Sound Machine
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Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational – Race 11 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 4:59 PM Eastern
Largent and Anothertwistafate share the bulk of the probability to win this race in my opinion, with about five others capable of completing the exacta or trifecta. Largent has been nearly perfect in his nine race career to date, winning six and finishing second in the other three. In two of those defeats he was beaten a head or a neck, and if this wasn’t a 12 horse field composed of other stakes winners he would be the odd-on favorite. Instead he opens at 9 to 2, a gift of a price in my opinion particularly after making a huge five wide move from seventh to first on the turn in the Fort Lauderdale stakes last month in preparation for this race.
Anothertwistafate ships out from California off the best race of his career in a similar race to the one Largent won, the Grade 2 San Gabriel Stakes 19 days ago. He had been away from the races for 16 months until last September and won the Longacres Mile on dirt then moved to turf and finished fourth before the win. The win came with the addition of blinkers and Rosario was up then as now. He earned a 117 Equibase figure in that race which when compared to Largent’s 118 figure really makes these two stand out. If you toss his 10th place 2019 Preakness finish, which led to the 16 month layoff, and his debut sprint, Anothertwistafate has five wins and two runner-up finishes in eight races, nearly as stellar a record as Largent.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Largent and Anothertwistafate at odds of 2/1 or more.
This is the perfect race for using a “Dutching” tool like the free one at Amwager, because it will allocate the win bets based on odds, putting more on the lower odds horse automatically. That is just one of many other great features and perks at Amwager.com
Exacta: Largent and Anothertwistafate over Largent, Anothertwistafate, Breaking the Rules, North Dakota, Aquaphobia, Cross Border, Pixelate and Say the Word.
Doubles (two tickets):
Race 11: Largent, Anothertwistafate
Race 12: Knicks Go
Race 11: Largent, Anothertwistafate
Race 12: Knicks Go, Last Judgment, Harpers First Ride, Sleepy Eyes Todd
