Sugar Swirl Stakes – Race 6 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 2:38 PM Eastern

Bronx Beauty, who has won nine of 19 races on fast dirt tracks and seven of 14 at this six furlong trip, opens at 8/1 and that’s just ridiculous. Three back she won the similar Regret Stakes at Monmouth before a big runner-up effort in the Skipat Stakes at Pimlico and we can ignore her most recent race on a sloppy track. With Saez riding if this mare repeats either of those two other recent efforts she can win, particularly as she’s a stalker in a race with a very likely HOT pace battle between Lady’s Island, Golden Ami and Ginnabunny she can sit off before rallying to win.

Aunt Nadine finished second on turf in her most recent start when leading from the break BUT on dirt one before that stalked nicely in fourth before rallying to win and from an outside post that same running style has her in line for a big piece if not the win. Claimed by Maker the ONLY time she was ever entered for a claiming price three back, her two since have both been career-best efforts and as she’s been first or second in six of eight career starts she could easily be in the exacta at the very least.

Sound Machine ran three “A” races in a row at Gulfstream last November, January and February, finished fifth in a grade 2 stakes, then was only beaten three-quarters of a length for second in the similar Miss Preakness Stakes before a fine second place effort last month in the Sunshine Millions Distaff. She put in a spectacular best of 55, 46.2 half-mile workout last week and gets Jose Ortiz so must be respected.

Bets:

Win: Bronx Beauty to win at 5 to 2 or more

Exactas: Box Bronx Beauty, Aunt Nadine and Sound Machine

Doubles–

Race 6: Bronx Beauty, Aunt Nadine and Sound Machine

Race 7: Will Take Control

Pick 3 (multiple tickets)

Race 6: Bronx Beauty, Aunt Nadine and Sound Machine

Race 7: Will Take Control

Race 8: Lady Lawyer

Race 6: Bronx Beauty, Aunt Nadine and Sound Machine

Race 7: ALL

Race 8: Lady Lawyer

Race 7 is a maiden race and as you can see from the double and pick three plays above I like Will Take Control. He’s a first time starter by Will Take Charge out of a mare who has had three foals, one of which WON FIRST OUT AT THIS ONE TURN MILE TRIP AT GULFSTREAM. Saez rides and hidden among a bunch of average workouts was five furlong drill on 11/14, 59.8, which was the best of 62 and which tips his hand at having some ability.

Will Take Control can be bet to win at 3/1 or more.

Pick 3 (multiple tickets)

Race 7: Will Take Control

Race 8: Lady Lawyer

Race 9: ALL

Race 7: ALL

Race 8: Lady Lawyer

Race 9: Phat Man, Royal Urn and Tatweej

My Charmer Stakes – Race 8 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 3:38 PM Eastern

Lady Lawyer opens at 2/1 and that would be fine here. The field is weak even for a non-graded stakes like this and the filly won last month in her first two-turn race since importing to the U.S. in June. Gaffalione was up then and rides back and the 101 Equibase figure is the best last race figure in the field. She was in the top hands of John Gosden in Europe and won three of her first four, finishing second in the other, so now she’s proven at a route on turf she’s likely to earn her first U.S. stakes win here.

Bets:

Win: Lady Lawyer to win at 8 to 5 or more.

Double:

Race 8: Lady Lawyer

Race 9: Phat Man, Royal Urn and Tatweej

Harlan’s Holiday Stakes – Race 9 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 4:09 PM Eastern

Tatweej could be any kind for Pletcher, although I think he may never earn back the $2.5 million they paid for him at auction as a yearling three years ago. He finished second in his career debut in June then won three in a row, took two months off, and returns off a strong set of drills with Zayas up (as he’s been for all three wins). The colt has good tactical speed and the seven post is no issue as a few inside of him have no early speed so he’s likely to get a great trip or even lead from the start on his way to earning his first stakes win.

Royal Urn opens hard to ignore at 12/1 considering he’s won three of five since moving to the Breen barn in July. All were stakes for New Jersey breds but the 104 and 100 figures earned in two tell me he fits in open (not restricted) company as compared to Tatweej, who earned a 105 figure when last seen. Bravo was up for one of the wins and rides back and this colt must be considered for any bets we make involving this race in my opinion.

Phat Man is certainly a contender but tough to bet to win anywhere near his 5/2 starting odds. First of all he has more runner-up finishes (8) than wins (7) in his career and although he won the similar Fred W. Hooper Stakes in January that was a one turn mile race as opposed to this two turn mile and one-sixteenth trip, which he finished second at in last year’s Harlan’s Holiday. He had a good prep at seven furlongs last month which is better than it appears to be on paper and he is a must to use on exacta tickets at the very least.

Bets:

Win: Tatweej to win at 2 to 1

For a smaller amount Royal Run to win at 7 to 2 or more

When making multiple win bets, use a “Dutching” tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. A Dutching tool lets you set the amount you want to bet or the amount you want to win, then based on the odds your bets are proportioned accordingly. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Exactas: Box Tatweej, Royal Urn and Phat Man

Soviet Problem Stakes – Race 8 at Los Alamitos – Post Time 6:58 PM Eastern (3:58 PM Pacific)

Sensible Cat, Dylans Wild Cat and I’m So Anna have an edge over the other seven in this stakes for two year old Cal-Bred fillies. Sensible Cat is one of few with a win around two turns AND one of few who isn’t a NEED-the-LEAD type which four of the other nine are. She won nicely on turf and is bred for dirt. Dylans Wild Cat led late and came up a head short in a similar stakes last month, around one turn, so must be respected as her pedigree suggests the two-turn trip will be no problem BUT it must be noted not only does she open at lower odds (7/2) compared to Sensible Cat (5/1), her 78 last race Equibase figure is lower than the 86 Sensible Cat earned in her last race. I’m So Anna, like Sensible Cat, has a two-turn win to her credit, earned on the all-weather at Golden Gate. She also won at a mile on turf in the OPEN (not restricted) Pike Place Dancer Stakes at the end of October so she’s two for two around two turns, and she won here at Los Alamitos on dirt in July when breaking her maiden so she rounds out the main contenders.

Bets:

Win: Sensible Cat to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more.

Exacta: Box Sensible Cat, Dylans Wild Cat and I’m So Anna