A Deep, Competitive Grade 1 Where the Trip Makes the Difference

The Grade 1 Hollywood Derby at Del Mar is one of those races that usually attracts a good field, but this year it’s a flat-out scramble — a legitimately competitive group where four or five can win without surprising me. It’s the kind of three-year-old turf showdown where the trip, the tempo, and a split-second decision are going to matter more than any one dazzling figure on paper. And that’s exactly why this race has produced so many future Grade 1 horses over the years.

Friendly Confines is the fulcrum of the whole puzzle. He’s dangerous — very dangerous — if he shakes loose. On paper I think he has a pace advantage, and at Del Mar, especially on this course, a horse who clears off early and gets into that smooth, uncontested rhythm can make a lot of good horses look ordinary. If they hand him the lead and nobody wants to take the risk early, he can take this field a very long way. I won’t be shocked if he’s still there past the eighth pole.

But in a field this deep, a soft lead is never guaranteed, and I’m ultimately landing on Salamis.

This horse is getting better, growing up, and starting to look like he’s figuring out who he is. Some three-year-olds hit their best stride at the perfect time, and Salamis feels like one of them. He’s been finishing with more purpose, more professionalism, and he’s carrying himself like a horse who wants more real estate, not less. The stretch-out to a mile and an eighth is exactly what I want to see — he’s bred for it, he runs like it, and visually he’s always looked like a horse wanting to uncork that longer, steadier run instead of being rushed in a shorter spot. I didn’t think he had the best of trips last out and things should go better here.

In a race where several horses have legit winning chances, I want the one moving forward, the one whose ceiling we may not have seen yet. That’s Salamis in my opinion. If he gets anything resembling a fair trip and doesn’t have to check, pause, or angle out three or four paths too early, I think he runs his best race right here.

Friendly Confines is the pace danger, a big one. A couple others can pick up the pieces if the race collapses. But the horse who feels like he’s coming into his own — and the one I’ll be siding with — is Salamis.