The Grade 1 Aristocrat Franklin-Simpson Stakes
It feels like everyone loves betting on Kentucky Downs racing. After all, why not? They have big quality fields, only turf racing, nice pools, good handle and plenty of large payoffs. I find it a very challenging track, but I will indulge. I call it Kentucky “play at your own risk” Downs. Uphill, downhill, shippers galore, plenty can happen. That curve in the stretch just when you think you are home or finished adds to the intrigue.
On Saturday they run the two-million-dollar Grade 1 Aristocrat. Six and a half furlongs around one sweeping turn downhill and then uphill into the stretch. As usual they have 12 set to go and we will see how they look.
Right off the bat I think the horse on the rail, Hedwig is a contender. He has been training at Turfway Park where they seem to get legged up good and run well coming off that strip. He has speed to stalk, pounce or even lead depending on what Saez sees develop. I don’t think these are much if at all better than some he has faced, and I look for a big race from him in here. The 10-1 morning line seems generous to me.
Evade makes his US debut for Mike Maker and deep pockets Resolute Racing and Qatar Racing. He was okay across the Atlantic and is now gelded. I’m not sold but you can’t say he would be a surprise.
General ledger has some speed which has been deadly at this meet. That said I do not believe he is good enough.
Yellow Card is a little interesting. He looks like he will like both this course and the added ground he will get. Johnny V helps his cause also. I would not talk anyone off this one.
Bear River is another with the always dangerous speed but again I do not think he is this good.
Apollo Ten is yet another with speed and looks like he has some improvement in him. He can also sit a trip and rally which makes him even more dangerous in here.
Joe Shiesty brings even more speed to this party. He may also improve second off the lay-off and in only his third turf race. I think he has a chance, but I like a few others more.
Please Advise cuts back in distance which is an angle I like and usually like a lot over this track. This meet however speed has ruled which dampens my enthusiasm for this angle. He should be running late but maybe too late for me.
I will vote no for Vote No. He looks a cut below a few of these to me.
Howard Wolowitz has plenty room for improvement and won’t need to improve much to be smack in this race. He has the looks of a contender and major player in here.
Mansa Musa gets a great set up in this race. He should be one of the better finishers today and that gives him a big chance.
Smokey Smokey should be in a good spot throughout. I am not sold he is good enough or that he won’t wind up getting hung out or caught up with all the speed.
If there wasn’t so much speed I would lean to Hedwig on the rail. There is a lot of speed on paper however and that narrows it down for me to either Howard Wolowitz or Mansa Musa. I think I will go with Howard. He should get the jump on any deep closers and theoretically in the second start on this surface he may have enough speed to be wherever Irad wants him to be. That can’t be a bad thing. Good old Kentucky “play to your own risk” Downs.
