The Pennsylvania Derby
The Pennsylvania Derby, a Grade 1, one-million-dollar race at a mile and an eighth drew a competitive field of 11. I’ll run them down and see what it looks like to me.
Doc Sullivan breaks from the rail and is an honest New York bred who shows up every time. I view the rider switch to Jose Ortiz as a positive, but he doesn’t quite look this good to me.
Seize the Grey won The Preakness on the front end after winning The Pat Day mile stalking. He hasn’t run back to either of those races in two tries and I don’t see that changing here.
Lonesome Boy looks a cut or two below these. He would be a major surprise.
Timeout is improving and I think he can easily turn out to be this good. He should be running late but I also think there are a few in here who hold an edge over him right now. That said he is far from hopeless in my book.
Protective is another who I believe has a chance. He has had somewhat of an odd or different campaign competing in some tough stakes while still a maiden. He finally put it all together last time and I think we will find out if he is a legit top tier three-year-old right here. I think he might be, but it is no guarantee, and I will probably take a stand against him.
Just Step On It is another who appears to be a cut below in my book.
Dragoon Guard is the likely favorite and comes from a powerhouse barn. He has had some soft trips on the front end, and they have certainly helped him look very good. I don’t see that type of soft trip here, and these look better as a group than what he has been beating. I’ll probably take a shot against him also.
Unmatched Wisdom had a bad trip in The Travers, and I was not thrilled with the strangle ride either. I will toss that race and give him a big shot to bounce back going back to Prat who is three for three on this colt.
Who’s the King looks in over his head.
Uncle Heavy also looks over his head in here.
Stronghold is dangerous. The wide draw doesn’t help but he can run, and he will also fight when needed. He needed that last race, and the flow and pace didn’t work to his advantage and things could easily be different in here. I think he is a major player.
For Me it came down to Unmatched Wisdom and Stronghold and I will take my shot with Unmatched Wisdom. The post and projected trips swayed me in the end, and I’ll play it the way I see it.
Enjoy the races and get those head bobs!