Key Races & Bets for Saturday December 14th, 2024
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New York Stallion Series Stakes (males) - Race 8 at Aqueduct - Post Time 3:06 PM Eastern
Top Win Contenders: Sacrosanct, Bold Fortune
Contender for exacta and trifecta: Soontobeking
Sacrosanct is undefeated in three races including two identical stakes for New York breds only. He shortens up from a mile to seven furlongs and won at this distance over the track one race before last. He continues to improve, with a career-best 92 Equibase speed figure earned last out, six points higher than his previous race. That being said, Bold Fortune has the same high probability to win based on his win versus New York breds in a stakes in his most recent race with a 99 figure. Bold Fortune dominated by eight lengths in that win when leading from start to finish, even after running the first half-mile on 44.8, and if he gets the early lead from the start he could be very tough to catch.
For exacta and trifecta tickets, Soontobeking is very logical as he’s only finished worse than third one time in seven races and that was in a grade 3 stakes for open (not restricted company). At this level he’s been second or third in four straight and should complete the exacta or trifecta once more.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Consider Sacrosanct and Bold Fortune at odds of 3 to 2 or higher, betting the one at the highest odds of the pair.
Exacta: Sacrosanct and Bold Fortune over Sacrosanct, Bold Fortune and Soontobeking
Trifecta: Sacrosanct and Bold Fortune over Sacrosanct, Bold Fortune and Soontobeking over Sacrosanct, Bold Fortune and Soontobeking
Doubles:
Race 8: Sacrosanct, Bold Fortune
Race 9: Idyll Gossip, Boston’s Phinest, Storm Changer, Princess Mischief
New York Stallion Series Stakes (female division) - Race 9 at Aqueduct - Post Time 3:35 PM Eastern
Top Win Contenders in slight preference order: Boston’s Phinest, Storm Changer, Princess Mischief, Idyll Gossip
12 are entered in this race and SEVEN of those earned their only wins leading from start to finish. Those are Bam’s Bliss Kiss, Stunning Sugar, Mischief Lady, Blossoming Erudite, Queen Atlas, D’s a Rock and Stone Smuggler. Therefore it will only take two or three of those to try to get the lead from the start, battle for said lead, and go faster than average, setting up the few closers in the field. The other horses who have a need the lead style may find themselves not knowing what to do, and although some may be able to relax and finish well, we can’t count on that.
The group of stalkers and closers is led by Boston’s Phinest, who rallied from fourth to win on 9/20 in her second career start, and then finished second in the nearly identical Maid of the Mist Stakes on 10/27. The winner of that race came back to win again but is passing this race, which leaves Boston’s Phinest with the best last race Equibase Speed Figure (90) to improve upon as she runs back to that 9/20 effort, which is good enough to win.
Storm Changer came from 11th and last to win her one and only race four weeks ago, showing a lot of maturity in doing so, over the track and against statebred maidens. She fits like a “T” here and may be closer up than 10th after a half-mile, so with the same strong late kick has a shot to run a ton better than her high odds suggest she might.
Princess Mischief also showed a big late kick in her most recent race when at six and one-half furlongs over the track she finished fast from ninth (12 lengths back) to draw off easily by more than five lengths at the end. She had improved off a third place finish before that and a fourth place effort two back so has potential to take another big step forward and have a say in the outcome here.
Idyll Gossip won a stakes at Finger Lakes five weeks ago with a nice finish from fifth (seven lengths back) after a half-mile. That was an “open” (not restricted) stakes so she is not really stepping up in class as she faces NY bred only here. She earned her first win leading from start to finish and is the ONLY horse in the field with the experience of two wins so must be respected when we consider our wagers involving this race.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Boston’s Phinest is a bit more probable than the other three by virtue of having run much faster so should be considered for a win bet before the other contenders, at odds of 2 to 1.
Among the other three contenders – Storm Changer, Princess Mischief and Idyll Gossip, I would consider betting on at least one of the trio, at odds of 4 to 1 or more.
When betting on more than one horse to win, there’s a way to get a mathematical edge using a “Dutching” calculator, which prorates your total amount wagered for the best advantage. Amwager has an easy to use Dutching tool which does the calculations for you, which is one of many perks and benefits of Amwager.com
Exacta: Box Boston’s Phinest, Storm Changer, Princess Mischief and Idyll Gossip
You can also consider a trifecta box using the same four horses.
Tropical Park Oaks - Race 8 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 3:53 PM Eastern
Top win contender: Belle of Rights
Other win contenders: Vive Veuve, In Our Time, De Regreso and Strike When Ready (if she draws in from the also-eligible list),
Belle of Rights finished second in a VERY highly rated allowance race for three year olds and upward at the end of October on the grass at Keeneland. The race was won by Kehoe Beach, who came back to win the Graded Mrs. Revere Stakes at Churchill Downs a couple of weeks ago. The 101 Equibase Speed Figure Belle of Rights earned in that race is tops in the field and the filly should improve upon the effort making her third start off a two month layoff, as well as moving from older to just three year olds.
Vive Veuve, In Our Time and De Regreso combined have five wins on the Gulfstream Park turf, in nine races and all three are stakes winners. Most recently, In Our Time, Vive Veuve and De Regreso finished first, second and third, respectively, in the Cellars Shiraz Stakes on November 1, with In Our Time going three wide on the far turn, De Regreso going four paths wide and Vive Veuve taking the worse of the trip when seven wide. Vive Veuve won the Sanibel Island Stakes over the course in March when coming home fast from eighth and red hot Gaffalione rides, which I think gives her a very slight edge on the other two, who are drawn outside of her in the gate today. Just the same, with Vive Veuve having earned a 98 figure one before last in a stakes at Kentucky Downs and with In Our Time having earned a 97 figure winning last month, all three fillies have a shot to succeed here if Belle of Rights doesn’t improve if expected. Note that Strike When Ready was fourth behind Kehoe Beach in the same race Belle of Rights was second in so if she gets in she deserves consideration as a contender as well.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Belle of Rights at 2 to 1 or more.
Among the other four (Vive Veuve, In Our Time, De Regreso, Strike When Ready), I’d consider the one at the highest odds for a second win bet, at odds of 4 to 1 or more.
If more than one of the contenders are above fair odds, we can bet more than one of them to win. The best way to do that is to use a “Dutching” tool, which prorates our wagers to maximize our edge. Amwager has a free dutching tool where all you need to do is enter the total amount you want to invest on win bets and the bets are then prorated based on the odds.
Exactas:
Belle of Rights over Vive Veuve, In Our Time, De Regreso, Strike When Ready
Vive Veuve, In Our Time, De Regreso, Strike When Ready over Belle of Rights
Trifecta: Box Belle of Rights, Vive Veuve, In Our Time, De Regreso, Strike When Ready
Tropical Park Derby - Race 11 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 5:21 PM Eastern
Top win contenders: Live High Live Low, Silent Heart, Cugino
Exacta/Trifecta contender: In a Jam
Live High Live Low has run the best two races of his career in his two most recent starts. Neither were wins but that’s not relevant as he gets the rail here and repeating either of those two efforts makes him very tough to beat. Two back he ran second in a stakes at Aqueduct to a very strong runner in Run Carson, who will be one of the favorites in the $250,000 Holiday Cheer Stakes later on Saturday at Turfway Park. After that, Live High Live Low finished very fast from seventh to miss by a half-length with a 106 Equibase Speed Figure which is the second highest last race figure earned by any horse in this field this year. The mile and one-sixteenth trip will be no issue either off the recent pair of six furlong races as he won at a mile on grass in September and at this distance at Gulfstream on all-weather in May in a race moved off the grass due to weather.
Silent Heart just won the identical Showing Up Stakes over the course on November 2, Perez in the saddle then as now. That effort came in his second start and first route following five months off and he should move forward nicely off that 97 figure effort.
Cugino ran on strongly from last of seven to second in the Grade 3 Hill Prince Stakes last month at Aqueduct and won the Audubon Stakes this June. Those efforts earned 111 and 103 figures, respectively, with the 111 figure the best in the field and he gets Irad Ortiz, Jr. The only knock is because he gets Ortiz, Jr. and comes out of a grade 3 race Cugino will go to post at lower odds than the other two contenders.
In a Jam has finished in the money in six of 10 races this year, but more importantly has NEVER finished worse than second in five races on the Gulfstream Park turf. He was second to Silent Heart in the Showing Up Stakes and won an off-turf race (on all weather) at this distance at Gulfstream in June, so has all the credentials for being in the money once again.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Live High Live Low and Silent Heart should both be strongly considered for win bets at 5 to 2 or more. Cugino has the same minimum odds but is unlikely to meet that threshold.
Exacta: Live High Live Low, Silent Heart and Cugino over Live High Live Low, Silent Heart, Cugino and In a Jam
Trifecta: Live High Live Low, Silent Heart and Cugino over Live High Live Low, Silent Heart, Cugino and In a Jam over Live High Live Low, Silent Heart, Cugino and In a Jam
