Key Races & Bets for Saturday December 7th, 2024
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Remsen Stakes - Race 7 at Aqueduct - Post Time 2:36 PM Eastern
Top Win Contenders: Tux
Other Win Contenders: Keewaydin, Studlydoright
When Bill Mott enters a two-year-old or three year old last out maiden winner in a Road to the Derby or Road to the Oaks stakes race, take note. Mott is an old school horseman who brings his talented charges along slowly most of the time, but he knows his horses well enough to be confident when putting them in stakes off a maiden win. He’s won the Risen Star, the Sam F. Davis and the Ohio Derby in the last few years with three-year-olds off maiden wins, just to name a few, and he also saddled the runner-up in many big stakes including the Florida Derby. As for two year olds, Mott moved Lake Avenue from the maiden ranks to win the Demoiselle Stakes on this day in 2019, and one year later saddled Millefuele to finish second in that race.
This year Mott enters Tux in the Remsen, similar to the Demoiselle but for males, off a strong three and one-half length maiden win over the track four weeks ago. Considering only one of the other six here have ever won a stakes race, the field is not strong for the level, so there is no issue with a last out maiden winner competing in this race. As a matter of fact, five of the last 10 winners of this race exited maiden wins. In his one and only race on November 9, Tux showed a lot of maturity as he was lapped on the early leader for the first quarter mile, then dropped back, before being asked by Alvarado (who rides again) and responded to pass that leader and draw off late. With likely mental improvement off the experience of a race and bred to adore this trip as a son of Tapit, Tux is the one to beat in this year’s Remsen.
Keewaydin also stretches out to two turns off a maiden win, by nearly two lengths, following a head defeat in his debut. He broke on top and jockey Davis (who rides back) let another horse pass before taking over and controlling the race. He’s bred for this trip but not as well as Tux, and Brown hasn’t won this race since 2014 with Leave the Lights On, who like Keewaydin had broken his maiden prior to the Remsen. All in all, Keewaydin can win, but he’s not a standout as it might appear based on his likely low odds.
Studlydoright leads the field with three career wins, and he’s only finished worse than second once in six races. He won the one mile (one turn) Nashua Stakes five weeks ago, the same race Mohayman won before taking the 2015 Remsen, and blinkers added for the Nashua saw him running the best race of his career. He’s also bred for the trip as he’s a son of Nyquist, and he would be no surprise if winning.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Tux can be considered for a win bet as a low odds overlay at 2 to 1 or higher.
Both Keewaydin and Studlydoright can also be considered for a win bet at odds of 5 to 2 or more, but for a smaller amount.
Exactas: Box Tux, Keewaydin and Studlydoright
Doubles, Pick 3 and Pick 4:
Race 7: Tux
Race 8: Beauty Reigns
Race 9: Mullikin, Senor Buscador, Post Time
Race 10: Treaty Obligation, Reynolds Channel, Quick to Accuse, Iridescent
For doubles and the pick 3 starting in race 7, you can also play:
Race 7: Tux, Keewaydin, Studlydoright
Race 8: Beauty Reigns
Race 9: Mullikin, Senor Buscador, Post Time
Race 7: Tux
Race 8: Beauty Reigns, Bless the Broken, Muhimma
Race 9: Mullikin, Senor Buscador, Post Time
Demoiselle Stakes - Race 8 at Aqueduct - Post Time 3:05 PM Eastern
Top Win Contenders: Beauty Reigns
Other Win Contenders: Bless the Broken, Muhimma
In my analysis of the Remsen, I went over the history of Bill Mott in graded stakes with horses coming off maiden wins in big races for two year olds and three year olds. Beauty Reigns fits the bill here the same as Tux did in the last race. She is bred to ADORE this trip as a daughter of Into Mischief out of a Tapit mare and her maiden win in her debut four weeks ago was superb, as she sat a half-length off the leader for the first quarter mile, and even after engaging head-and-head for the next half mile, edged away to win. She’s going to improve both physically and mentally off the race and she’s on the identical pattern to the 2019 winner of this race, Lake Avenue, also saddled by Mott. Based on the dates and distances of her last two workouts, it appears she’s been working in company with stablemate Tux and if that colt runs as expected in the Remsen, we can expect a huge effort from Beauty Reigns in this race.
Bless the Broken ships from Kentucky off a head defeat in a two turn race in allowance company, an effort which if repeated could be very effective here. Vazquez accompanies her from Kentucky and she takes blinkers off to help her see the horses around her late and respond accordingly. As such, Bless the Broken fits on all counts as a contender.
Muhimma is undefeated and untested in two races, with a combined margin of victory of 13 lengths. Stretching out from seven to nine furlongs is not an issue, and in both races she was well in front with an eighth of a mile to run and never threatened. She gets the rail and has the speed to lead early if no other horses wants to, or to sit second and pounce late. Cox wins nearly 33% of the time when stretching horses out from sprints to routes. All that being said, I do have one concern, which I don’t have with the other two contenders, and that her sire Munnings’ progeny are just one for 23 in all nine-furlong stakes races they’ve run in over the last five years.
Handicapper Picks
Win: We should consider win bets on Beauty Reigns at odds of 2 to 1 or more, and on Bless the Broken at odds of 3 to 1 or more.
Exacta: Box Beauty Reigns, Bless the Broken and Muhimma
For Double and Pick 3 plays: Refer to Race 7 and use the horses in races 8, 9 and 10
Cigar Mile Handicap - Race 9 at Aqueduct - Post Time 3:35 PM Eastern
Top win contenders: Mullikin, Senor Buscador, Post Time
For exactas and trifectas: Law Professor, Book’em Dano
In doing research prior to handicapping this race, I noted last year’s Cigar Mile Handicap winner, Hoist the Gold, had exited the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Scanning the Race Lens past performances, I noted the only horse in this year’s Cigar field to have run in that race was Mullikin, who had won four races in a row prior to the Sprint, including a career-best effort in the John A. Nerud Stakes, here at Aqueduct in July, earning a 110 Equibase Speed Figure. He earned that win, as well as his previous win one month earlier, while stalking the pace in second for the opening half mile under Flavien Prat. Prat rides Mullikin in the Cigar and, prior to the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, had a perfect three-for-three record riding this colt. In the Sprint, Mullikin found himself in the unusual position of seventh (among 11) after a quarter mile, which per the chart callers superb comments caused the colt to “climb,” which is when a horse appears to be climbing stairs and its stride is not nearly as efficient as when running parallel to the ground. After dropping back to eighth following a half mile, Mullikin settled down and started to rally, passing horses very willingly and ending up third at the finish. Now back at Aqueduct where he won his only race over the track, and likely to be second behind “need the lead” type Pipeline after a half mile, a repeat of his effort in the Nerud or in the Forego appears likely, which makes Mullikin the one to beat in this year’s Cigar.
Senor Buscador finished second in the 2023 Cigar, following a seventh-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. This year Senor Buscador enters the race off a fifth-place finish in the Classic and is on a pattern for another top effort in this race. The pacesetter last year ran the opening half mile in a lively 44.8 and six furlongs in 1:09 flat and that is what is expected here because Pipeline was the horse that pressed that hot pace a head from the lead through the opening quarter mile and just a half-length behind after a half mile. With that kind of hot pace in front once again, Senor Buscador figures to be coming on very strongly, similar to when missing by a neck in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational in January where he earned a then career-best 113 speed figure. One month later, Senor Buscador bettered that with a 114 figure when winning the Saudi Cup Stakes with a visually impressive rally. Joel Rosario got familiar with Senor Buscador when riding for the first time in the Classic and the cut back from one mile and one quarter to one mile should sharpen the horse’s late kick so he could run as well or better than one year ago in this race.
Post Time can rally from mid-pack or from nearly last, similar to Senor Buscador, and he has been exceptionally consistent this year winning four of eight races and finishing second or third in the other four. The most recent of those strong efforts was when rallying from last of 13 to get second in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, earning a 109 speed figure which is the best among the group of three exiting Breeders’ Cup races. Like the other two win contenders, Post Time has run well at Aqueduct previously. He won the Carter Stakes in April, one race before finishing fast for second in the Westchester Stakes with a 115 figure, which, if repeated, is good enough to win this race.
Law Professor has won three of four this year and three of six at this nine furlong trip. Although not a grade 1 level horse he could finish second. Similarly, Book’em Dano has finished first or second in five of six this year. He did win the Grade 1 Woody Stephens Stakes in June but at seven furlongs and versus three year olds only, so I think he could run well and finish second but not beat any of the top three contenders.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Mullikin absolutely can be considered for a win bet at 2 to 1 or more, followed by Senor Buscador and Post Time at 3 to 1.
If more than one of the contenders are above fair odds, we can bet more than one of them to win. The best way to do that is to use a “Dutching” tool, which prorates our wagers to maximize our edge. Amwager has a free dutching tool where all you need to do is enter the total amount you want to invest on win bets and the bets are then prorated based on the odds.
Exactas:
Mullikin, Senor Buscador and Post Time over Mullikin, Senor Buscador, Post Time, Law Professor, Book’em Dano
Race 10 at Aqueduct - Post Time 4:04 PM Eastern
Top win contenders: Treaty Obligation / Iridescent (Uncoupled Entry), Reynolds Channel, Quick to Accuse
Linda Rice has entered both Treaty Obligation and Iridescent in this race, and if they both run they must be treated as if a coupled entry even though they are not, because we can’t guess which one the trainer thinks is more likely to succeed.
Treaty Obligation was previously in the care of Chad Brown and was dropped into a claiming race for the first time on August 24, winning strongly and claimed by Rice for $50K then winning starter allowance race, again pretty easily. Prat rode him to the win for Brown and gets back on as Franco moves to Quick to Accuse for Cox, who he rode to back-to-back wins this spring. Considering his two most recent efforts, Treaty Obligation has every right to win his third race in a row.
Iridescent was claimed by Rice for $50K out of his most recent race, where he finished fourth as the 8 to 5 favorite. Oddly enough even though running eight times this year in non-stakes races as a four year old, he has never used Lasix until today. He’s also been very popular at the claiming box as he has been claimed in four of his last five races. Not only does Iridescent get the #1 jockey for the Rice barn in Lezcano, he also put in a very strong fifth best of 66 half-mile workout as his most recent coming into the race. Considering he lost by a nose under identical conditions in February and is in good form with runner-up efforts one before last and two before that, and that he gets a great outside post for this one turn mile trip, Iridescent could prove to be another very astute claim by Rice, who has won off the claim nearly 25% of the time over the past two years.
Reynolds Channel broke his maiden three back at Saratoga at Seven furlongs under Alvarado, who rides today but who DID not ride in his two subsequent starts, one when overmatched in the G1 Jerkens Stakes and the other at this level. Rested two and one-half months, Reynolds Channel would be competitive if running as he did in July. Quick to Accuse finished second under similar conditions when last seen two months ago and won back to back in NY Bred allowance company in March and April under Franco, who rides here. He won the first of the two off a two month layoff so this type of layoff may help him to run well fresh.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Treaty Obligation AND Iridescent should be considered as an entry and if we bet one we should bet the other, at odds of 5 to 2 or more and prorating our bets for the same result, which is best done using a dutching tool like the one which is free and easy to use at Amwager. If only one of the pair should run, minimum odds would be 2 to 1.
Reynolds Channel and Quick to Accuse may also be considered for win bets, at 7 to 2 or more if both Treaty Obligation Iridescent run, and at 3 to 1 or more if only one of the Rice pair runs.
Exacta and Trifecta: Box Treaty Obligation, Iridescent, Reynolds Channel, Quick to Accuse
