Key Races & Bets for Saturday January 11th, 2025
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Sunshine Classic Stakes - Race 10 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 4:48 PM Eastern
Win contender: Khozeiress
Khozeiress sticks out in this field, not only because he has won four of nine on the Gulfstream dirt track and only finished worse than third one time, but more importantly because he’s one of only four in the field to have won a two-turn race, which is much different from the one-turn mile distance and seven furlong distance many of the others have had some success at. Of particular note is it appears Khozeiress was pointing to this race when returning from four months off, four weeks ago, in a similar stakes race for Florida breds only, but at seven furlongs. Showing good early speed, he chased the leader a head behind for the first half-mile then ran third and evenly throughout the stretch. Getting the two post on the stretch out, jockey Luis Saez is very likely to put him on the lead from where he may not be caught, but even if other horses want the front, Khozeiress can sit as far back as fourth to sixth. As a matter of fact, that’s exactly what he did last June when, also second off the layoff and stretching out from a sprint to a route, Khozeiress rallied strongly to win a third level “OPEN” (not restricted like this race) allowance race pretty easily, and he did so from the same two post he gets today.
Handicapper Picks
Nothing fancy here, just a win bet on a potential low odds overlay.
Win: Khozeiress at odds of 2 to 1 or more.
Unusual Heat Turf Classic Stakes - Race 9 at Santa Anita - Post Time 6:30 PM Eastern
Win contenders: On the Whim, Aligato
Secondary win contenders: Old Pal, None Above the Law
Horses for second and third on exact tickets: Takes Three, Barely Functional, We Can, Coalinga Road
First, with a field of 11 and as wide open as this race is I don’t foresee a low odds favorite. It may actually be the favorite is 4 to 1 or higher, which provides an opportunity to play more exacta combinations than we might normally as the return may be worth the risk.
As to the main win contenders, between On the Whim and Aligato I have to start with the former because he draws the two post compared to 11. Although at this nine furlong trip, which starts near the top of the stretch, outside posts aren’t as disadvantageous as they are at shorter distances, On the Whim has an additional slight edge in that he has tactical speed, having earned one of his two-turn turf wins leading from start to finish and another when stalking in second for the first seven furlongs. He really loves the turf course at Santa Anita, having won three of five, and he won the nearly identical California Dreaming Stakes, for Cal-breds only, at Del Mar, this past August. He also won the California Flag Handicap for Cal-Breds at six and one-half furlongs at Santa Anita in October. He had traffic trouble in his only start since, which was against “OPEN” (not restricted as this race is) company and he also drew the 11 post for a mile. Today he gets a great post and if he repeats his California Flag or California Dreaming efforts, he can certainly win.
Aligato is a DEEP closer, so the post won’t negatively affect him much if at all. Jockey Flavien Prat comes off the best year of his career and gets back on after two races with another jockey, and Prat was aboard the horse for both the 2023 Turf Classic and last year’s edition of this race, when Aligato rallied to miss by a half-length and a nose on the wire. Glatt and Prat have only teamed up on 27 horses the last five years, for 39 starts, but have won with 10 of those (better than 25%).
Glatt also trains Old Pal, who has a respectable 3-2-4 record in 10 lifetime starts, all on turf. He won the Snow Chief Stakes (restricted to three year olds only) at this distance on this course in May of 2023 then was off for a year but won in May of last year as if he’d never been away. He’s winless in five since but hit the board in four and his last try at this nine furlong trip, on October 12 at Santa Anita, was a big effort when he came flying down the stretch to miss by a nose. None Above the Law went 1 for 11 last year but nearly won the California Flag and was only a half-length and neck behind On the Whim. Smith rode him for the first time then and gets back on after two races with other jockeys. Most importantly, None Above the Law drops significantly in class from the open Grade 2 Hollywood Turf Cup to this Cal-bred stakes level so he has a shot as well.
Handicapper Picks
Win: We should consider both On the Whim and Aligato for win bets at 3 to 1 odds.
We can also consider Old Pal and None Above the Law for win bets at 5 to 1 or more.
If more than one of the contenders are above fair odds, we can bet more than one of them to win. The best way to do that is to use a “Dutching” tool, which prorates our wagers to maximize our edge. Amwager has a free dutching tool where all you need to do is enter the total amount you want to invest on win bets and the bets are then prorated based on the odds.
Exacta:
On the Whim and Aligato over On the Whim, Aligato, Old Pal, None Above the Law, Takes Three, Barely Functional, We Can and Coalinga Road.
On the Whim, Aligato, Old Pal and None Above the Law over On the Whim, Aligato, Old Pal, None Above the Law, Takes Three, Barely Functional, We Can and Coalinga Road.
California Cup Oaks - Race 11 at Santa Anita - Post Time 7:30 PM Eastern
Top win contender: Take Another Card
Other win contenders: Musical Number, Sunset Grazen
Horses for second and third on exacta tickets: Tequilaandtherapy, Chilly Philly, Hey Jessie, Less Is More
Although drawing the outside post at a mile on grass can be disadvantageous, looking at the makeup of the field I have little concern Dettori can get Take Another Card into a good mid-pack position without losing much, if any, ground on the first turn. The filly ran spectacularly well in her debut just 13 days ago sprinting on the Santa Anita turf and it’s a highly confident move for trainer Callaghan to bring her back in two weeks for this race which is essentially similar to a first level allowance race, although there are some winners of Cal-Bred stakes in the field. This is a VERY TALENTED filly, as she lost many lengths at the start but neither she nor Dettori panicked. Instead, she relaxed in fourth after a quarter mile, then third after a half-mile. When called upon she rallied quickly to draw off, earning an 88 Equibase Speed Figure which is fantastic for a Cal-Bred filly at the end of their two year old year. As a matter of fact, that figure is at least five points better than any other horse in the field, and SHE IS LIKELY to improve markedly off that effort in her second career start. The only other foal of the dam to have run in a two-turn race on grass won a two-turn race on grass, so there are no knocks in that area as well.
Musical Number won the first two starts of her career, albeit in a maiden claimer and a starter allowance race, both on dirt and sprints. When stretched out to a mile for the Soviet Problem Stakes last month, she finished fifth of nine in a decent effort and considering the kind of success trainer Dean Pederson has had in these types of races (eight for 30 over the past few years in turf route stakes for Cal-breds) we can believe this filly may be able to run better than her high odds suggest she can.
Sunset Grazen won the Golden Gate Debutante Stakes around two turns on dirt at Pleasanton last month, with a decent 81 figure which was 10 points better than the one earned when winning a two-turn race one month earlier. She’s bred to adore the grass and is another with a shot to run well at high odds.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Take Another Card at odds of 5 to 2 or more.
Musical Number and/or Sunset Grazen at 9 to 2 or more
Exacta:
Take Another Card over Musical Number and Sunset Grazen
Box Take Another Card, Musical Number and Sunset Grazen
Take Another Card over Tequilaandtherapy, Chilly Philly, Hey Jessie and Less Is More
