Key Races & Bets for Saturday July 13, 2024
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My Dear Stakes - Race 8 at Woodbine - Post Time 4:48 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Bound to Be True, Soupergirl, Obliging, Bullet
This two year old stakes race for fillies drew a field of nine, with ALL nine having won their most recent race, and for seven of those that win came in their debut. All of these two year old fillies can improve, and considering Bound to Be True ran the fastest of the group and opens at 8 to 1, she gets top billing. She showed a lot of maturity rallying from fourth in her debut and gets a contested pace to close into again as up to FIVE of the others may be need-the-lead types. Better still, Bound to Be True was FLATTERED as both the runner-up and third place finishers won their next starts. The 78 Equibase Speed Figure she earned, which is expected to be improved upon, is the best in the field and she has no knocks.
Soupergirl has one small question mark and that is she draws the rail after getting the five post in a field of seven. She too rallied with maturity from third in her debut, getting up by a head, and she now moves privately to the top Drexler barn off what appears to be a private purchase. She earned a 74 figure and will improve as well, and she put in a strong half-mile workout coming into the race which was the sixth best of 91 on the day, signaling top form yet again. She opens at 6 to 1.
Obliging and Bullet are only slightly less preferred, more because of their starting odds of 3 to 1 and 2 to 1, respectively, than for any other reason. Neither are standouts but both can win. Obliging won in had in her debut at Monmouth and the last time trainer Delgado shipped up to Woodbine, in the spring of 2023, he won a stakes race. Her 76 figure is fine as well. Bullet comes from the top Casse barn and won a stakes race in a field of eight in her debut in May, on turf. She’s been working well on the all-weather at Woodbine and Casse won this race in 2021 with a shipper from Gulfstream just like this filly. Her 77 figure is also fine and can be improved upon.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Both Bound to Be True and Soupergirl can be considered for win bets at 3 to 1 or more.
In this race there may be an opportunity for a mathematical edge by using a dutching tool, which prorates wagers for the best value. There’s a free dutching tool at Amwager.com, where you can set the amount you want to bet and the math is done for you to help achieve the best edge. This is just one of many tools, and perks, for bettors at Amwager.com
For exactas we will try to split the favorites as any exactas between them would pay the lowest off all the combinations.
Exactas: Bound to Be True and Soupergirl over Bound to Be True, Soupergirl, Obliging and Bullet
Also – Bound to Be True, Soupergirl, Obliging and Bullet over Bound to Be True and Soupergirl
Diana Stakes - Race 10 at Saratoga - Post Time 5:43 PM Eastern
Win contenders: Didia, Neecie Marie
Other win contenders: Whitebeam, Chili Flag
Trainer Chad Brown entered five of the 10 in the main body of the race but he still may not be found in the winner’s circle when all is said and done. This is because the horse to beat may be Didia, trained by Ignacio Correas IV. Winner of 11 races in 15 turf starts, the six year old mare proved she has not lost a step with a powerful victory last month on this course in the New York Stakes. The one and three-sixteenths mile distance of that race is a bit further than the one mile and one-eighth distance of this race but similar enough, and she won her only race at this distance since importing to the U.S. in the summer of 2022 when taking the Modesty Stakes in May of last year. In the New York Stakes, Didia earned a career-best 113 Equibase Speed Figure which is the best this year among any horse in the field. Jose Ortiz was aboard for the win in the New York, as well as in the Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf Invitational Stakes in January and rides the mare back in the Diana, so the chances of her repeating her effort from one month ago appear pretty strong.
Neecie Marie started 11th of 13 in the New York Stakes, showing an excellent kick when going from 10th to fifth after a half-mile had been run, then moving up from fourth to second in the stretch. Prior to that Neecie Marie returned from nearly six months off to win the Beaugay Stakes, beating Whitebeam by a neck, and earning a 103 figure. Improving to a 111 figure in the New York, the pattern suggests Neecie Marie is going to take another step forward in her third start off a layoff, and considering she is a four year old she certainly has room to improve on that count as well. As such, Neecie Marie may have an upset shot in this race, particularly as she may be ignored by bettors who will be gravitating to horses which won their most recent race and those trained by Chad Brown, which she is not.
Whitebeam and Chili Flag finished second and first, respectively, in the Just A Game Stakes, run at the shorter distance of one mile over the Saratoga turf. Both are trained by Chad Brown, who also entered Coppice, Gina Romantica and Fluffy Socks. Whitebeam won this race last year with a 113 figure, the same figure Didia earned winning the New York Stakes last month. However, in the Just A Game, run on the same day as the New York, Whitebeam earned only a 96 figure, not good enough to win this race if repeated. On the other hand, she earned a 102 figure when beaten just a neck by Neecie Marie in the Beaugay Stakes in May and she is also making her third start following a five month layoff so there is room to improve. This is particularly true because prior to winning the Diana in 2023, Whitebeam earned only an 87 figure winning the Gallorette Stakes before improving to 113 in her third start off a layoff, the same as she is making in the Diana.
Chili Flag has won five of her last eight races going back to last summer, including three graded stakes in succession. She won the Honey Fox Stakes in March with a 104 figure before improving to a 109 figure when victorious in the Distaff Turf Mile in May. She earned a 97 figure winning the Just A Game on the same day Didia earned a 113 figure winning the New York last month over this course. All three recent wins have come at the distance of one mile and the only time she ran this distance she lost by a nose. That isn’t to say she can’t win the race but one mile may be her preferred distance as compared to this mile and one-eighth trip.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Both Didia and Neecie Marie can be considered for win bets at 3 to 1 or more.
Whitebeam and Chili Flag can be considered at 4 to 1 or more.
Exactas: Didia and Neecie Marie over Didia, Neecie Marie, Whitebeam and Chili Flag
Didia, Neecie Marie, Whitebeam and Chili Flag over Didia and Neecie Marie
Horseshoe Indianapolis Handicap - Race 4 at Horseshoe Indianapolis - Post Time 6:35 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Kodiak Wintergreen, Everland, Do It Divi, Neom Beach
This race is interesting because there is not likely to be a clear or low odds favorite and we have a full field of 12 with the opportunity for value, and therefore profit. Kodiak Wintergreen stretched out to a mile on turf for only the second time in her career last month at Churchill Downs and ran pretty well when rallying from last of 11 to get third, under a length from second, in spite of traffic trouble in the stretch. She showed a lot of energy when clear and with a better trip, particularly moving from three year olds and upward to just three year olds, she can post the upset.
Everland opens as the 3 to 1 starting favorite based on the drop in class from the Grade 3 Regret Stakes on June 1. She finished fourth of seven in that race and really didn’t change position from start to finish but two before that in the Bourbonette Oaks she rallied from sixth of 10 to win going away and that was a non-graded stakes like this one. She put in a very strong workout before leaving her home base in Kentucky and Abel Cedillo, who was aboard for her last win, rides her here.
Do It Divi is undefeated in two starts, an all-weather sprint and a turf route. She ran very well in that route on May 22 and should improve in her second route and third career start, similar to the runner-up from her last race who came back to win.
Neom Beach gets the extreme outside post but has a late running style so should be able to take back and make a strong later run. She tried turf for the first time on May 31, her most recent race, rallying from ninth to fourth, and Torres rides back as well as was up for her last win.
Handicapper Picks
Win: All four fillies have about the same chance to win in my opinion so fair/minimum odds are 4 to 1. The best strategy is to bet the two at the highest odds near post time, using a Dutching tool like the one at Amwager to help prorate our bets for the best edge.
Exactas: Box Kodiak Wintergreen, Everland, Do It Divi, Neom Beach
Doubles:
Race 4: Kodiak Wintergreen, Everland, Do It Divi, Neom Beach
Race 5: Aspenite
Caesars Handicap - Race 5 at Horseshoe Indianapolis - Post Time 7:09 PM Eastern
Win Contender: Aspenite
Possible minor win contender: Beyond Stoked, Twirling Point, Conspiractherapist
Aspenite nearly won the Grade 3 Penn Mile Stakes on May 31, missing by a nose on the wire after having to wait for a place to run in the stretch. Torres rides back and also rode the horse to a strong win in the half-million Juvenile Stakes last September at Kentucky Downs. Those were the colt’s only two turf routes and the 98 Equibase figure from that last race is hands down the best in the field so he could be tough to beat.
Still, given that grass races in general lend themselves to traffic issues, and as it appears there may be some good value among a trio of others, we should take a look. Beyond Stoked won over the course when shipping up from Kentucky on June 13, likely with this race in mind, and ships back up after returning to trainer Lynch’s home base. He earned a 95 figure which can be improved upon and opens at 6 to 1. Twirling Point opens as the 9 to 5 favorite and has less probability to win than Aspenite, who opens at 5 to 2, so we can likely only use him on exacta tickets. He won the Jersey Derby on June 1 at Monmouth with a career-best 92 figure and has now won three of seven but is a poor win bet at low odds because that 92 figure isn’t as good as the 98 Aspenite earned last out, the 95 Beyond Stoked earned last out and it is tied with the 92 figure Conspiractherapist earned last out. Conspiractherapist debuted in a two turn race on turf and won as if he had run before, showing a lot of maturity to rally from fifth after a slow start. He opens at the highest odds of the four potential win contenders, 10 to 1, and should not be dismissed.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Aspenite at 5 to 2 or more
Consider win bets on Beyond Stoked, Twirling Point and Conspiractherapist at 4 to 1 or more.
Exacta: Aspenite over Beyond Stoked, Twirling Point and Conspiractherapist
Box Aspenite, Beyond Stoked, Twirling Point and Conspiractherapist
