Key Races & Bets for Saturday November 2nd, 2024
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Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint - Race 4 at Del Mar - Post Time 3 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Soul of an Angel, Society, One Magic Philly
For exactas, include Vahva, Scylla
Soul of an Angel just ran the best race of her career at this seven furlong trip, rallying from last of nine to win the Princess Rooney Stakes by three lengths in visually impressive fashion. She had been running in two turn races and the cut back to one turn really helped here, so much so that she has a decent chance to post the upset in this race, opening at 12 to 1. Most of the main contenders like to race close up early in the top three and if the pace is faster than average this mare could get up in time once again.
On paper, Society is the one to beat based on her Grade 1 Ballerina win when last seen in August, also at this distance. She stalked in second for the opening half-mile then took over and won by the same margin Soul of An Angel did, but against Grade 1 company instead of Grade 3 company. Society has now won eight of 14 races, never finishing second, which is odd but on the other hand before that last win, her five previous wins all came when leading from the start, and many times when a horse is a “need the lead” type and doesn’t get its way, it gives up and finishes off the board. If her stalking style from the last race holds up she is a strong contender, but opens at 3 to 1 compared to 12 to 1 for Soul of An Angel so isn’t as good a win bet in terms of return for the risk.
One Magic Philly is a lightly raced three year old who has won three in a row since a second place debut in June. She won the Chillingworth Stakes four weeks ago, rather easily, and like Society she had stalked in second for the first half-mile. One Magic Philly won from fourth two before that so obviously can be rated as is needed and Fresu is the only jockey she’s ever known and they get along marvelously. It must be noted that similar to the Ballerina (won by Society) being a key prep for this race, used by previous winner Goodnight Olive, the Chillingworth was used as the last prep by 2022 Filly & Mare Sprint winner Ce Ce.
Handicapper Picks
Bets-
Win: Soul of an Angel and Society should be considered for win bets at 3 to 1 or more. It is likely only Soul of an Angel will meet that threshold, so she’s likely the main win bet. However, One Magic Philly can be bet at 4 to 1 or more as well.
When betting more than one horse to win, an edge can be obtained by pro-rating your bets to obtain the same profit. This is called “Dutching” and there’s an easy to use “Dutching” tool at Amwager where you set the total amount you want to bet and all the math is done for you.
Exactas: Soul of an Angel, Society and One Magic Philly over Soul of an Angel, Society, One Magic Philly, Vahva and Scylla.
Breeders’ Cup Classic - Race 8 at Del Mar- Post Time 5:41 PM Eastern
Top Win Contenders: Next, City of Troy, Tapit Trice
For exacta tickets: Ushba Tesoro, Newgate, Forever Young, Fierceness
Winning at the mile and one-quarter distance of the Breeders’ Cup Classic and similar races takes a combination of speed and stamina, and Next has that and more. A lot will be said about the fact that he has done his best at longer distances, ranging from one mile and three-eighths to one mile and three-quarters, but earlier in his career Next won three times at distances from one mile to one mile and one-eighth. After joining the barn of William “Doug” Cowans in the spring of 2022, Next won a turf race at nine furlongs then two races later was entered in a mile and one-half turf race which was moved to dirt. The rest is history as Next won the first of seven straight races all at those longer distances mentioned above. He led from start to finish in three of them but in four others he raced patiently in second until the final turn, when Next put in a burst of speed to be in front with an eighth of a mile to run. Averaging a seven length margin over his nearest rival at the eighth pole in each of those last seven wins, Next remained unchallenged to the wire. Using the GPS data contained in Equibase charts and available to racing fans everywhere, when winning the Greenwood Cup Stakes on September 21, Next never slowed down over the last five eights of a mile, consistently running 37 to 38 miles per hour. Next did this while never shortening his stride, as indicated by an average stride length of 23.5 to 24 feet and a stride frequency of 2.3 strides per second over more than a half-mile. Next has also earned very consistent Equibase Speed Figure of 109 and 110 in his last four races, demonstrating his 2024 campaign has been executed perfectly. There may be horses with more early speed than Next in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic Field, but I don’t think there is any horse as consistently fast, and as mentally tough, as Next and that could be the key to earning his eighth straight win and the biggest win of his career in this year’s Classic.
City of Troy only needs to run as well on dirt, which he’s racing on for the first time, as he has on turf, to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic. A Kentucky bred son of undefeated champion Justify, City of Troy certainly has the pedigree for one mile and one-quarter on dirt, and he’s won at the distance (or close to it) twice. When victorious in the Epsom Derby in June, City of Troy put in a very strong rally with three-eighths of a mile to run then drew off convincingly in a field of 16, earning a 123 Equibase Speed Figure. He then bettered that to 124 when winning the Coral Eclipse Stakes in July at the distance of the Classic, this time rallying from about three lengths back with three furlongs to run. Showing a new dimension in the Juddmonte International Stakes in August, City of Troy went to the lead in a field of 13 and held it all the way, improving to a career-best 129 figure. With such versatility and a tremendous pedigree for dirt, City of Troy has every right to run another “A” race good enough to win.
I had been toying with a number of superb equine athletes for my third win contender, and it was a surprise even to me that became Tapit Trice after I looked at a number of factors. Now six-for-12 in his career, Tapit Trice was considered a top contender for the 2023 Kentucky Derby after a neck win in the Blue Grass Stakes. He finished seventh in that race and was no better than third in three races following the Derby in 2023. Rested 11 months, perhaps with top trainer Todd Pletcher pointing to this year’s Classic all along, Tapit Trice won the Monmouth Cup Stakes with a 106 figure which was pretty strong considering the lengthy layoff. Regressing to finish fourth in the Jockey Club Gold Cup behind Highland Falls and Pyrenees, Tapit Trice got back on track in a big way with a victory in the Woodward Stakes at the end of September, earning a career best 110 figure in the process. Although the Woodward was run at one mile and one-eighth and although Tapit Trice has finished no better than third in three tries at 10 furlongs, that’s not enough to draw a conclusion that he can’t run as well at this distance as he has at nine furlongs. Additionally, as a son of Tapit, sire of 2022 Classic winner Flightline, I think this distance will suit him just fine. Last, but not least, the GPS data on Tapit Trice is very similar to Next, as the colt’s velocity through the last three-eighths of a mile in the Woodward was consistent at 36 to 36.5 miles per hour, his stride length did not shorten as it averaged 25.5 over that same distance, and his stride frequency remained constant at 2.1 per second. What this seems to suggest is, as others tire in the final quarter mile, Tapit Trice will be running the same speed and can pass those tiring pacesetters and pressers, possibly posting the upset win or at least running much better than his high odds suggest he will.
Other contenders, with their best Equibase Speed Figures: Ushba Tesoro (127), Newgate (122), Fierceness (110) and Forever Young (110). Ushba Tesoro closed from 12th to fifth in last year’s Classic but is a year older and more mature. Although second in his last three races, Ushba Tesoro won the Tokyo Daishoten just prior to that with a 123 figure and earned a 127 figure when second in the Dubai World Cup in March at this distance. Newgate finished ninth in the World Cup then after six months off ran absolutely the best race of his career when beaten a head and a nose in the California Crown Stakes on September 28, earning a 122 figure. Fierceness has won two stakes races in a row versus three year olds, earning a 108 figure in the Jim Dandy and then a 110 figure in the Travers (at the distance of the Classic), in which he beat the amazing filly Thorpedo Anna by a head. Forever Young missed in a three horse photo in this year’s Derby or otherwise might be undefeated in seven races. He has been pointing to this race since then and just beat 14 horses in the Japan Dirt Classic at this distance so he enters the race in top form, having earned back-to-back 110 figures in the Kentucky Derby and the U.A.E. Derby just prior to that.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Next can be considered for a win bet at 4 to 1 or more. City of Troy will likely be below any reasonable threshold, about the same, so likely can’t be bet to win. Tapit Trice absolutely can be bet at odds of 4 to 1 or more.
Using a dutching tool like the one which is free and easy to use at Amwager, even with a big odds disparity such as is likely between Next and Tapit Trice, all the math is done for you automatically.
Exactas:
Next, City of Troy and Tapit Trice over Next, City of Troy, Tapit Trice, Ushba Tesoro, Newgate, Forever Young and Fierceness
Then, because Next and City of Troy will be much lower odds than Tapit Trice we can play additional exactas as follows:
Next and City of Troy over Next, City of Troy, Tapit Trice, Ushba Tesoro, Newgate, Forever Young and Fierceness
Breeders’ Cup Mile - Race 11 at Del Mar - Post Time 7:45 PM Eastern
Top win contenders: Notable Speech, Ramatuelle
For exacta tickets: Geoglyph, Ten Happy Rose, Diego Velazquez, Porta Fortuna
The last six editions of the Breeders’ Cup Mile have been won by horses with a country code next to their name, indicating they were bred in another country, and this year should be no exception. Notable Speech won the Group 1 Sussex Stakes in July and the Group 1 English 2000 Guineas in May, both at this mile trip, and if he repeats either of those there’s only one horse which can beat him and that is Ramatuelle. Notable Speech is not a lock, however, as he threw in clunkers in June and last time out in September, but the latter was the Group 1 Prix de Moulin de Longchamp, one of the top mile races in the world, which has produced multiple winners of this race. William Buick, the only rider Notable Speech has ever known, and who has been aboard for all five of the colt’s wins, rides again, and the record of Buick and trainer Appleby in North American Grade 1 races the last five years, is exceptional at 15 for 35 (43%) with 27 in the money (77%).
Ramatuelle is a three year old filly sensation along the lines of the incomparable Goldikova, who won this race three times in a row. In 2009 Goldikova finished third in the Prix de la Foret in France and in 2010 she won that race, before winning the Breeders’ Cup Mile. Also, Space Blues won the Prix de la Foret before the mile in 2021. Ramatuelle was exceptional beating 15 horses in that race last month, setting her up for an even better effort here in here second start after three months off, and leading to what could be a very exciting stretch battle between her and Notable Speech.
Handicapper Picks
Win: I think both win contenders are exceptionally good bets, even at low odds, so minimum odds are 9 to 5 on Notable Speech and 2 to 1 on Ramatuelle and I won’t hesitate to bet both at or above those odds, using the free Dutching tool at Amwager to get the best mathematical edge.
Exactas:
Notable Speech and Ramatuelle over Notable Speech, Ramatuelle, Geoglyph, Ten Happy Rose, Diego Velazquez and Porta Fortuna
Also Notable Speech and Ramatuelle over ALL
