Key Races & Bets for Saturday November 2nd, 2024

Top Win Contenders: Next, City of Troy, Tapit Trice
For exacta tickets: Ushba Tesoro, Newgate, Forever Young, Fierceness

Winning at the mile and one-quarter distance of the Breeders’ Cup Classic and similar races takes a combination of speed and stamina, and Next has that and more. A lot will be said about the fact that he has done his best at longer distances, ranging from one mile and three-eighths to one mile and three-quarters, but earlier in his career Next won three times at distances from one mile to one mile and one-eighth. After joining the barn of William “Doug” Cowans in the spring of 2022, Next won a turf race at nine furlongs then two races later was entered in a mile and one-half turf race which was moved to dirt. The rest is history as Next won the first of seven straight races all at those longer distances mentioned above. He led from start to finish in three of them but in four others he raced patiently in second until the final turn, when Next put in a burst of speed to be in front with an eighth of a mile to run. Averaging a seven length margin over his nearest rival at the eighth pole in each of those last seven wins, Next remained unchallenged to the wire. Using the GPS data contained in Equibase charts and available to racing fans everywhere, when winning the Greenwood Cup Stakes on September 21, Next never slowed down over the last five eights of a mile, consistently running 37 to 38 miles per hour. Next did this while never shortening his stride, as indicated by an average stride length of 23.5 to 24 feet and a stride frequency of 2.3 strides per second over more than a half-mile. Next has also earned very consistent Equibase Speed Figure of 109 and 110 in his last four races, demonstrating his 2024 campaign has been executed perfectly. There may be horses with more early speed than Next in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic Field, but I don’t think there is any horse as consistently fast, and as mentally tough, as Next and that could be the key to earning his eighth straight win and the biggest win of his career in this year’s Classic.

City of Troy only needs to run as well on dirt, which he’s racing on for the first time, as he has on turf, to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic. A Kentucky bred son of undefeated champion Justify, City of Troy certainly has the pedigree for one mile and one-quarter on dirt, and he’s won at the distance (or close to it) twice. When victorious in the Epsom Derby in June, City of Troy put in a very strong rally with three-eighths of a mile to run then drew off convincingly in a field of 16, earning a 123 Equibase Speed Figure. He then bettered that to 124 when winning the Coral Eclipse Stakes in July at the distance of the Classic, this time rallying from about three lengths back with three furlongs to run. Showing a new dimension in the Juddmonte International Stakes in August, City of Troy went to the lead in a field of 13 and held it all the way, improving to a career-best 129 figure. With such versatility and a tremendous pedigree for dirt, City of Troy has every right to run another “A” race good enough to win.

I had been toying with a number of superb equine athletes for my third win contender, and it was a surprise even to me that became Tapit Trice after I looked at a number of factors. Now six-for-12 in his career, Tapit Trice was considered a top contender for the 2023 Kentucky Derby after a neck win in the Blue Grass Stakes. He finished seventh in that race and was no better than third in three races following the Derby in 2023. Rested 11 months, perhaps with top trainer Todd Pletcher pointing to this year’s Classic all along, Tapit Trice won the Monmouth Cup Stakes with a 106 figure which was pretty strong considering the lengthy layoff. Regressing to finish fourth in the Jockey Club Gold Cup behind Highland Falls and Pyrenees, Tapit Trice got back on track in a big way with a victory in the Woodward Stakes at the end of September, earning a career best 110 figure in the process. Although the Woodward was run at one mile and one-eighth and although Tapit Trice has finished no better than third in three tries at 10 furlongs, that’s not enough to draw a conclusion that he can’t run as well at this distance as he has at nine furlongs. Additionally, as a son of Tapit, sire of 2022 Classic winner Flightline, I think this distance will suit him just fine. Last, but not least, the GPS data on Tapit Trice is very similar to Next, as the colt’s velocity through the last three-eighths of a mile in the Woodward was consistent at 36 to 36.5 miles per hour, his stride length did not shorten as it averaged 25.5 over that same distance, and his stride frequency remained constant at 2.1 per second. What this seems to suggest is, as others tire in the final quarter mile, Tapit Trice will be running the same speed and can pass those tiring pacesetters and pressers, possibly posting the upset win or at least running much better than his high odds suggest he will.

Other contenders, with their best Equibase Speed Figures: Ushba Tesoro (127), Newgate (122), Fierceness (110) and Forever Young (110). Ushba Tesoro closed from 12th to fifth in last year’s Classic but is a year older and more mature. Although second in his last three races, Ushba Tesoro won the Tokyo Daishoten just prior to that with a 123 figure and earned a 127 figure when second in the Dubai World Cup in March at this distance. Newgate finished ninth in the World Cup then after six months off ran absolutely the best race of his career when beaten a head and a nose in the California Crown Stakes on September 28, earning a 122 figure. Fierceness has won two stakes races in a row versus three year olds, earning a 108 figure in the Jim Dandy and then a 110 figure in the Travers (at the distance of the Classic), in which he beat the amazing filly Thorpedo Anna by a head. Forever Young missed in a three horse photo in this year’s Derby or otherwise might be undefeated in seven races. He has been pointing to this race since then and just beat 14 horses in the Japan Dirt Classic at this distance so he enters the race in top form, having earned back-to-back 110 figures in the Kentucky Derby and the U.A.E. Derby just prior to that.

Handicapper Picks

Win: Next can be considered for a win bet at 4 to 1 or more. City of Troy will likely be below any reasonable threshold, about the same, so likely can’t be bet to win. Tapit Trice absolutely can be bet at odds of 4 to 1 or more.

Using a dutching tool like the one which is free and easy to use at Amwager, even with a big odds disparity such as is likely between Next and Tapit Trice, all the math is done for you automatically.

Exactas:
Next, City of Troy and Tapit Trice over Next, City of Troy, Tapit Trice, Ushba Tesoro, Newgate, Forever Young and Fierceness

Then, because Next and City of Troy will be much lower odds than Tapit Trice we can play additional exactas as follows:
Next and City of Troy over Next, City of Troy, Tapit Trice, Ushba Tesoro, Newgate, Forever Young and Fierceness