Key Races & Bets for Saturday November 9th, 2024
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Hill Prince Stakes - Race 5 at Aqueduct - Post Time 1:40 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Bartlett, Cugino, Deterministic
Among the three win contenders, not only do I suspect Bartlett will go to post at the highest odds, he is also the one to catch, and to beat. In spite of winning four of six in his career including two in a row, he’s never run on turf, he’s never run this nine furlong trip and his wins have all come at Parx. None of that matters, because first of all his last two wins came against older and he’s facing three year olds only, with five of the other six not having faced older and with the one which did (Right to Vote) having just broken his maiden in his last start, which was two months ago. Chad Brown saddles both Main Beach and Right to Vote and as is often the case, Brown’s horses will be bet more heavily than makes sense given their probability. Both of the Brown charges aren’t fast enough to win if they repeat their best efforts, which yielded 99 and 96 Equibase Speed Figures, compared to 102 for Deterministic, 103 for Cugino and 110 for Bartlett.
Bartlett earned all four wins leading from start to finish and has the rail, so even if Cugino attempts to wire the field like he did on June 1 when winning the Audubon Stakes, he won’t get the lead unless he uses too much energy, which will make him vulnerable late. Similarly, Main Beach led from start to finish breaking his maiden in June, running the opening half-mile in :48 seconds, whereas Bartlett has made the lead in about 47.2 in his two most recent efforts. As it stands, Bartlett will be able to get an easy lead and dictate the tempo from the start, and considering the 108 and 110 figures earned in his last two races constitute a “Double Advantage” in figures, as no horse in the field has run that fast, EVER, Bartlett is the one to beat.
Cugino won the Audubon Stakes at this nine furlong trip one before last with a 103 figure, his third straight improvement in figures, and he won in his only race on the Aqueduct turf, last November. Prat was aboard for the Audubon and rides back, and the colt doesn’t need the lead to win as proven in his debut, and his two narrow defeats this March and April by a nose and a neck when closing fast in the late stages. If Bartlett can’t lead from start to finish, Cugino is highly likely to run him down and win.
Deterministic has finished in the top three in his last four races, all stakes races on grass, his ONLY grass races. He improved to a career-best 102 figure effort when missing by three-quarters of a length in the Jockey Club Derby Invitational over the course at the longer mile and three-eighths trip last month, and he won the Virginia Derby at this distance prior to that. He fits as well as Cugino does and is another likely to be finishing fast late for a big piece, or even the winners’ share, if Bartlett is susceptible to being passed in the final stages.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Bartlett at 2 to 1 odds or higher.
I might consider a win bet on Cugino or on Deterministic, which ever is the higher odds near post time, at 3 to 1 or more.
When betting more than one horse to win, an edge can be obtained by pro-rating your bets to obtain the same profit. This is called “Dutching” and there’s an easy to use “Dutching” tool at Amwager where you set the total amount you want to bet and all the math is done for you.
Exactas: Box Bartlett, Cugino, Deterministic
Aqueduct Turf Sprint Stakes - Race 8 Aqueduct- Post Time 3:10 PM Eastern
Win and Exacta Contenders: Twenty Six Black, Outlaw Kid, Alogon, Senbei, Grooms All Bizness
A case can be made for five of the 10 here, and when that happens no matter if we feel a bit more strongly about the chances of one over another, we need to let the public help us decide who to bet to win, choosing the horse(s) at the highest odds as our win bets.
I’ll start with Twenty Six Black, who I think will be higher odds than most of the entrants here as he’s racing in an “open” (not restricted) stakes for the first time. He SHOWS UP every time, because aside from his debut when third and his one try at a mile, he has won or placed in eight of eight turf sprints. He’s also a perfect three-for-three on the Aqueduct turf, the most recent of those coming last time out on September 21, with Santana (who rides back) up for the first time. He LOVES sprinting on turf, doesn’t need the lead and can come from close-up early or far back. He’s an improving four year old on a fantastic pattern of improving Equibase Speed Figures (96, 99, 102) and is ready to win a race like this one.
Outlaw Kid won a classified allowance race in July, on this course, at this distance, with Prat in the saddle (who rides here) with a stakes quality 105 Equibase Speed Figure. He duplicated the figure in the tougher Grade 2 Nearctic Stakes last month at Woodbine, rallying from fourth to lead by a length in the stretch before beaten a neck for third. Back in New York, back with Prat, and with a mean kick, this gelding who before that last race had been first or second in ALL FIVE races this year, is another we need to take very seriously in this race.
Alogon and Senbei finished third and first, respectively, in the Belmont Turf Sprint Stakes over the course last month. Alogon ran evenly in third from start to finish and may be higher odds than Senbei but might return to the winning form shown just before that when taking the Parx Dash with a superb 113 figure effort, particularly with the jockey change to Irad Ortiz, Jr, who has not ridden for this trainer in the past couple of years. Senbei might be going for his fourth straight win if not beaten a nose and a head in the Select Stakes one before last. Franco was up for both wins and not the defeat and rides back and this horse with seven wins in 17 races has no knocks.
Grooms All Bizness adds more depth to the field, The only time he ran on the Aqueduct turf previously he finished second, beaten a length, in a stakes, and he won the Get Serious Stakes in June, before being sent to post as the odds-on favorite in the Parx Dash and coming up a length short at the wire. Davis rode him to that second place finish in the stakes and to another runner-up effort last May, and gets back. The 114 figure Grooms All Bizness earned winning the Get Serious would be good enough to win here if repeated and so he rounds out a quintet with big shots to do well in this field.
Handicapper Picks
Win: As I wrote at the beginning of my analysis for this race, we absolutely need to see how the public bets before making win bets. Technically, all five horses should have odds of about 5 to 1 and we should be at least the two at the highest odds to win, perhaps three.
Personally I have made this odds line, which I will use to decide which two, or three, to bet to win, hoping two of the five are about 10 to 1 with 10 minutes to post: Twenty Six Black 9 to 2, Outlaw Kid 7 to 2, Alogon 4 to 1, Senbei 4 to 1, Grooms All Bizness 9 to 2.
Using a dutching tool like the one which is free and easy to use at Amwager, even with a big odds disparity such as is likely between Next and Tapit Trice, all the math is done for you automatically.
Red Smith Stakes - Race 9 at Aqueduct - Post Time 3:40 PM Eastern
Top win contenders: Rebel Red, Master Piece, Pioneering Spirit
For exacta tickets: Integration, Limited Liability
Since four horses among the nine entered are winless in 2024, the horse to take a closer look at first when considering those who have potential to win is Rebel Red, who is one of only two to have won his most recent race. The other is Limited Liability, whose best two efforts this year have come at distances of two miles or more. Rebel Red has never run this far but let there be no doubt he can run this mile and three-eighths distance successfully. His sire, Frankel, is one of the best horses of this century who was undefeated in 14 races and Frankel is one of the best sires in the world since entering stud duty in 2013. Only a few of Frankel’s progeny have raced in North America, but a Race Lens query reveals that among 33 graded stakes starters on grass in the last five years, 14 have won or placed, including Soldier Rising, who was beaten a neck when second in the 2023 Red Smith. Rebel Red will be ridden by Jose Ortiz and is trained by Cherie DeVaux and these two teamed up just one week ago to win the Breeders’ Cup Mile with More Than Looks. Stretching out from nine furlongs to 11 furlongs off a career-best 100 Equibase Speed Figure, this four year old can take another big step forward and earn his first graded stakes win.
Master Piece finished 10th in the 2023 Arlington Million prior to the Red Smith so was a bit disregarded by the betting public in last year’s Red Smith. Running on the Aqueduct turf for the first time in this race last year, Master Piece put in a visually impressive rally to go from fifth and six lengths back on the turn, to fourth and two lengths back with an eight of a mile to go, to win by a neck at the finish. That effort earned a strong 111 figure, which he bettered to 119 three races later in the Fort Marcy Stakes in May of this year also over this turf course. After fourth and fifth place efforts, Master Piece showed signs of improving form when beaten a head for second in the John Henry Turf Cup near the end of September. Now back on the Aqueduct turf where he is perfect in two races, as well as reunited with jockey Jose Lezcano, who rode him to victory in last year’s Red Smith, Master Piece would be no surprise if victorious two years in a row.
Pioneering Spirit is interesting for a couple of reasons even though he is winless in 10 races this year. First, he is trained by Richard Dutrow, who saddled Master Piece to victory in this race last year and is hoping to win again in 2024. Second, for some time and until last month, Pioneering Spirit had been in the care of Linda Rice, who claimed him for $40,000 in March of last year. Under Rice’s care, Pioneering Spirit won four straight races on grass from May through July of last year, including one at this mile and three-eighths distance. Pioneering Spirit also won the Bernard Baruch Stakes (on grass) and Knickerbocker Stakes (scheduled for turf but run on dirt) last summer and fall. Having only finished better than third one time in 10 races since then, Rice entered Pioneering Spirit into an allowance/optional claiming race last month, from which Dutrow claimed the horse and now can turn that $62,500 investment into almost 300% in profit with the $180,000 winner’s share of this purse. Manny Franco gets on and it is hard to ignore their record together (per Race Lens) of eight for 31 (26%) in the past two years. Pioneering Spirit earned a 110 figure when beaten a neck last month in his most recent race and considering that is nearly identical to the 111 figure Master Piece earned winning this race last year, Pioneering Spirit absolutely has to be considered a contender.
For exactas we’ll include Limited Liability and Integration, Limited Liability because he has finished first or second in his last two races, both stakes, one at one mile and one-half and the other at more than two miles. He missed second by a neck in the mile and one-half Sycamore Stakes last fall as well. We’re including Integration because he was second in the Arlington Million one before last and because he won his only previous race on the Inner Turf at Aqueduct, the Hill Prince Stakes one year ago this month, not to mention he gets red hot Flavien Prat to ride.
Handicapper Picks
Win: I have little doubt Rebel Red will offer value for a win bet, with minimum odds of 4 to 1 to be sure.
I’ll consider win bets on Master Piece at 3 to 1 or more, and on Pioneering Spirit at 5 to 1 or more. It is very likely Pioneering Spirit will also be above minimum odds, so the free dutching tool at Amwager will really help all of us to get the best edge when betting two horses to win in this field.
Exactas:
Pioneering Spirit, Master Piece, Rebel Red over Pioneering Spirit, Master Piece, Rebel Red, Integration, Limited Liability
ALSO (the opposite)
Pioneering Spirit, Master Piece, Rebel Red, Integration, Limited Liability over Pioneering Spirit, Master Piece, Rebel Red
