Key Races & Bets for Saturday September 14th, 2024
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Natalma Stakes - Race 5 at Woodbine - Post Time 3:25 PM Eastern
Win Contender: Mountain Breeze
For second on exacta tickets and third on trifecta tickets: Annascaul, Winterberry, Ready for Candy
When the powerhouse Appleby Stable (for Godolphin) sends a horse to Woodbine for the two year old stakes, this race and the Summer Stakes (race 9), they mean business. Appleby won the race in 2018 and 2021 with La Pelosa and Wild Beauty, who had both finished second in the Sweet Solera Stakes in England the previous month. Marco Botto also won this race, in 2017 with Capla Temptress, off a third place finish in the Sweet Solara Stakes. Mountain Breeze shows the identical pattern, having finished second last month in the Sweet Solara Stakes. She has run in stakes facing winners three times since earning her first win in May, as compared to all but three of the other 12 who enter the race having only faced maidens.
Not only is Mountain Breeze much farther along in her career, having run five times, she’s much faster, with 109 and 97 Equibase Speed Figures in her last two races, with the best of the other 12 having run 89 to 84 figures. Additionally, with Buick coming over to ride the barn shows how serious they are at earning a spot in the gate for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies in November, because in the two year old stakes at Woodbine over the last five years they have a record of 4-1-1 in six races.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Mountain Breeze would be a great bet as low as even money.
Exacta: Mountain Breeze over Annascaul, Winterberry, Ready for Candy
$0.20 Minimum Trifecta: Mountain Breeze over ALL over Annascaul, Winterberry, Ready for Candy
Jockey Club Oaks Invitational Stakes - Race 10 at Aqueduct (Belmont at the Big A) - Post Time 5:17 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Caldwell Luvs Gold, Mixologist
Exacta/Trifecta contenders: Justdeny, Lady Madonna, Lady Mary, Egyptian Candy
Caldwell Luvs Gold is a New York bred stakes winner trying open (not restricted) company and a turf route for the first time. There is NO DOUBT her pedigree suggests she can handle both as a daughter of Goldencents out of a Quality Road mare, and the ease with which she won the New York Oaks around two turns on July 15 also suggests the trip may not be an issue. She earned a career-best 95 Equibase Speed Figure with that effort, which is the second best figure for a winner this year in this field. That being said, it is likely Caldwell Luvs Gold will be fairly ignored in the wagering based on the contention she may be overmatched and may not run well on turf. That doesn’t concern me a bit, because she is trained by Brad Cox, winning at a 26% clip this year and a trainer who does not enter horses in a stakes race “hoping” they will run well. She will also be overlooked in the betting because of her fifth place finish after the New York Oaks win, but that race can be IGNORED as she was bumped really hard at the break and had not chance to get early position like second as she was in the Oaks.
Cox also addles Mixologist, who was visually impressive winning at a mile on turf in a big field at Churchill Downs in her first start in June, moving from 10th and inhaling the field in the stretch. After a poor effort in July, Mixologist ran big once again four weeks ago when missing by a half-length after going SEVEN paths wide into the stretch. She was placed first via disqualification of the winner. There is no doubt this filly is also bred to handle the 11 furlong trip, particularly as the dam is by Silent Name and has produced a winner at 12 furlongs. Mixologist earned a career-best 95 figure with that effort, the same figure as stablemate Caldwell Luvs Gold earned one before her last race, and it appears fairly possibly trainer Cox may have the one-two finishers in this field.
Justdeny earned a 94 figure when second at this 11 furlong trip in an allowance race at Saratoga last month and won at the distance in June so fits here. Lady Madonna earned a 97 figure winning a mile and one-sixteenth race at Monmouth last month but as a daughter of War Front this 11 furlong trip is doable to be sure. Lady Mary makes her U.S. debut after three straight in the money finishes in stakes in Germany, the most recent in the half-million dollar German Oaks in a field of 15 at the trip. Egyptian Candy has a nice late kick as shown when rallying from seventh to third in the last eighth of a mile last out with a 92 figure and she may be a big price to complete the exacta or trifecta.
Handicapper Picks
Win: When a trainer of the stature of Brad Cox has an uncoupled entry I won’t try to separate them and so we should consider betting BOTH Caldwell Luvs Gold and Mixologist at 3 to 1 or more.
Exacta: Caldwell Luvs Gold and Mixologist over Caldwell Luvs Gold, Mixologist, Justdeny, Lady Madonna, Lady Mary and Egyptian Candy
Caldwell Luvs Gold, Mixologist, Justdeny, Lady Madonna, Lady Mary and Egyptian Candy over Caldwell Luvs Gold and Mixologist.
Summer Stakes - Race 9 at Woodbine - Post Time 5:41 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: New Century, Al Qudra
Exacta/Trifecta contenders: Dream On, First Resort, Cairo Caper
The same applies in this race as in the Natalma Stakes, race 5, regarding Charles Appleby, William Buick and Godolphin, who enter Al Qudra off a strong win in the Pat Eddery Stakes at Ascot near the end of July. Al Qudra beat New Century (trained by Andrew Balding) by two lengths in that race, then New Century raced one more time since then, winning the Stonehenge Stakes on August 14. The Stonehenge Stakes was the last prep for Albahr (trained by Appleby) when winning this race in 2021, which suggests New Century may be in slightly better recent form than Al Qudra. On the other hand, Appleby likely has Al Qudra a lot more physically fit than when he easily defeated New Century in July, so he gets slight preference. With New Century having earned 93 and 91 Equibase Speed Figures in his last two, and with Al Qudra having earned 100, 106 and 95 figures in his last three, compared to 88 for the best of the others, these two stick out a lot, which makes the starting odds on New Century (6/1) compared to Al Qudra (3 to 1) a bit of a head scratcher.
Dream On and Cairo Caper finished second and first in the Soaring Free Stakes over the course last month and that was the race Gretzky the Great used as a prep for winning this in 2020, but there were no European imports in that field as there are today. First Resort comes from the Godolphin barn the same as Al Qudra but is U.S. based and trained by Eoin Harty as well as entered to run in a race at Churchill Downs on the same day, so he may not run. If he does he could be the pacesetter for his stablemate but he is a quality colt as well as he just finished second in the Saratoga Special Stakes last month.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Both Al Qudra and New Century can be bet to win at 2 to 1 or more, and we should vary our bet for the same return. For example $10 to win on New Century at 6 to 1 ($70 return) and $23 to win on Al Qudra at 3 to 1 ($69 return).
Exactas: Al Qudra and New Century over Al Qudra, New Century, Dream On, First Resort, Cairo Caper
Woodbine Mile - Race 10 at Woodbine - Post Time 6:16 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Big Rock, Filo Di Arianna, Naval Power
Big Rock started 2024 as the highest rated miler on turf in the world. This was based on a phenomenal 2023 campaign which saw the colt win five times in nine races and finish second in three others. The only time he finished worse than second was last January, before reeling off four wins in a row. Last October, Big Rock ran the best race of his career when destroying a quality field by six lengths in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot, earning a 132 Equibase Speed Figure in the process. Moved to a new trainer this past spring, unfortunately in his 2024 debut Big Rock stumbled badly at the start then moved up quickly but rushing up took its toll and he faded to sixth. He didn’t fare much better in his next race when 10th of 13 but started to show signs of life last month when fifth in a group 1 race. In his last two starts, Big Rock was beaten by Charyn, one of the top turf milers in the world, who would be the odds-on favorite in this race if running in it. Jockey Umberto Rispoli rides and is one of the top jockeys in Southern California who has also had a lot of success in graded stakes on turf, winning nearly 25% of the time (11 for 46) over the past 12 months. Given the colt’s prowess at this mile trip, we can assume his connections are not sending the horse thousands of miles just for the experience and Big Rock can run well enough to win this race. Considering his fantastic efforts last year in top company and that 132 figure (as well as 121 and 120 figures in two other top efforts), Big Rock appears to be the one to beat with his best effort.
Filo Di Arianna loves the Woodbine turf, where he’s a perfect five-for-five, including wins in the King Edward Stakes at the trip in 2022 and 2023. He earned a 104 figure in this year’s King Edward and 106 last year, and he ran even faster when winning the Highlander Stakes this past June with a 109 figure. Filo Di Arianna can win on the lead or from off the pace and jockey Kazushi Kamura, who had been riding in Southern California, comes in to ride this horse who he has won with three times in three tries. As such, Filo Di Arianna certainly warrants a lot of respect as a win contender in this field.
If Naval Power wins it will give trainer Charles Appleby victory in the Woodbine Mile for the third year in a row. He won the race two years ago with Modern Games and last year with Master of the Seas, both with jockey William Buick in the saddle, who comes in from England to ride Naval Power. The horse finished second in the similar Maker’s Mark Mile in April then led late and came up a head shy of winning the Turf Classic Stakes in May, with 109 and 104 figures, respectively. His best effort came in January, 2023 when earning a 112 figure which is one of the best in the group except for Big Rock so if that one doesn’t run as expected, Naval Power may get the job done.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Big Rock starts at 6 to 1 odds which are impossible to ignore because he wins if he repeats any of his last three efforts from 2023. He can be bet at odds of 2 to 1 or more
Exactas: Box Big Rock and Naval Power, Box Big Rock and Filo Di Arianna
Use all three horses on any double, pick 3 or pick 4 tickets played.
