Key Races & Bets for Saturday September 21st, 2024
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Turf Monster Stakes - Race 10 at Parx - Post Time 4:04 PM Eastern
Top Win Contender: Alogon
Other win contenders: Smooth B, Senbei
There is little doubt in my mind that SEVEN of the horses in this field are “Need the Lead” types who can ONLY win when leading from the start. Those are Traders Luck, Souper Quest, Jean Valjean, Fore Harp, Center Mid Maddie and Boat’s a Rockin. Obviously some of them aren’t as quick as others but it WILL ONLY TAKE three of them to battle for the lead on much faster than average fractions and be susceptible to being overtaken late by any or all of the three horses above, all who have proven capable of coming from off the pace to win. Additionally, one of those need-the-lead types is starting favorite Souper Quest, who is a vulnerable favorite at best.
Alogon gets slight preference over the other two by virtue of having won at this five furlong turf trip at Parx four weeks ago when taking the Parx Dash. He rallied from fourth to win and earned by far the best Equibase Speed Figure in the field, 113. That was no fluke because two before that he earned a 113 figure when third for the first four furlongs in the much tougher Grade 1 Jaipur Stakes before fading. Rodriguez was up for the very first time in the Parx Dash and rides back and that’s a BIG sign for a similar effort.
Smooth B has TWENTY-FOUR first or second place finishes in his 61 race career and although he has never won on turf in 16 races, he’s finished second or third in half of those, including when second in the 2023 Turf Monster Stakes at 24 to 1. He also won his most recent race, at five furlongs, scheduled for turf but run on dirt, and that could be the reason he opens at odds of 12 to 1 which are too high to ignore. Sanchez rides him well and although Alogon has a higher probability to win, a token win bet is still warranted on Smooth B given his 12 to 1 starting odds and his off the pace style.
Senbei missed by a head in the similar Select Stakes at Monmouth last month and gets Irad Ortiz, Jr. to ride. He’s won six of sixteen but only one of five on turf and his best figure is 104 which is similar to Smooth B’s 106 best but not as good as Alogon’s 113 best. He will be bet because Ortiz, Jr. is riding so may not be as good a win bet as either of the other two but has a good shot to be in the mix at the end .
Handicapper Picks
Win: Alogon can be bet to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.
Smooth B and Senbei can be considered for win bets at 4 to 1 or more.
Exacta: Since many of the need to lead types might stick around for second, there’s really no exacta play but for just the $1 minimum we can consider Alogon, Smooth B and Sensei over ALL
Gallant Bob Stakes - Race 11 at Parx - Post Time 4:35 PM Eastern
Top Win Contender: Alwaysintomischief
Other win contenders: Bentornato, Buccherino, Sunny Breeze, Maximus Meridius
Although there’s not as many “need the lead” types signed on hear as in the Turf Monster (race 10), they still comprise at least three, possibly four, of the eight horse field. Bentornato may have to go from the rail and he led after a half-mile in his last three wins and wears blinkers. One Sharp Cookie led after a half-mile in his last four races. Buccherino earned two of his last three wins when in front from start to finish, while Sunny Breeze won the first two races of his career leading from start to finish and was in front after a half-mile in his other win.
Alwaysintomischief gets the RIGHT POST POSITION for success in this field, the outside in a field of eight, and he and jockey Machado can watch the pace unfold and be in position to pounce late as he was when winning the Tall Stack Stakes in May and the Noonan Stakes in April. His try at a mile on a sloppy track in June can be ignored and off a two month layoff last month he ran huge when beaten a neck considering he broke through the gate pre-start. He put in a sensational best of 50 half-mile workout recently and his Equibase figure of 110 from the Noonan is the best in the field ever so with 8 to 1 starting odds, Alwaysintomischief is the key play in the race.
Bentornato closed from fourth early (six lengths back) to win in his debut in July of last year and was passed on the lead then re-bid last out so may improve of a 112 figure effort last month when second in the Hilton Memorial Stakes. Irad Ortiz, Jr. rides back and the colt cuts back from that seven furlong, two-turn trip, to this one turn six furlong trip which may help as well.
Buccherino ran the best race of his life four weeks ago and brought his record at Parx to three-for-three, Lezcano up then as now, but I do have concern he can get the lead to himself early as it appears he needs to in order to win. Sunny Breeze was second and four lengths back after a quarter mile before winning the Concern Stakes in July so may be able to rate and run well, while Maximum Meridius moved up mid-race from fourth to second last month in the race won by Buccherino, before settling for second, and he takes blinkers off so could run a bit better.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Alwaysintomischief at odds of 3 to 1 or more.
Exacta: Alwaysintomischief over Bentornato, Buccherino, Sunny Breeze, Maximus Meridius and (the opposite) Bentornato, Buccherino, Sunny Breeze, Maximus Meridius over Alwaysintomischief.
Cotillion Stakes - Race 12 at Parx - Post Time 5:20 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Thorpedo Anna, Mystic Lake
There is no doubt Thorpedo Anna is one of the top three year olds racing on dirt in North America this spring and summer, having reeled off four straight wins in grade 2 or 1 races from March through July then coming up a head shy of winning the Travers Stakes against males last month. With her last two efforts yielding 105 and 109 Equibase Speed Figures and particularly on the cut back from 10 furlongs to nine, where she earned three wins in a row prior to the Travers, all against females such as here, she is absolutely the one to beat. She opens at 4 to 5 odds so is not a good win bet but is an absolute must to use on any multi-race bets such as the pick 3, 4 and 5 and certainly can be used in the exacta, IF we can find a horse offering value.
We find such a horse in the form of Mystic Lake, opening at 12 to 1. She’s won four of seven this year, compared to 3 of 7 for Thorpedo Anna, and she’s improving as her most recent effort earned a 108 Equibase Speed Figure, similar to the 109 figure Thorpedo Anna earned in the Travers. That race Mystic Lake won was the Charles Town Oaks, and although it was seven furlongs it was a TWO-TURN race like this one, her first on conventional dirt, EVER. Jockey Mike Smith rode Mystic Lake for the first time in the Charles Town Oaks and rides back, and the filly won with gas left in the tank after easily drawing away to win by nearly six lengths. If any horse can give Thorpedo Anna a run for the money in this year’s Cotillion, it is Mystic Lake.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Mystic Lake at odds of 3 to 1 or more.
Exactas: Box Mystic Lake and Thorpedo Anna
Pennsylvania Derby - Race 13 at Parx - Post Time 6:10 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Dragoon Guard, Unmatched Wisdom, Timeout
Exacta contenders: Stronghold, Protective, Doc Sullivan
In the 2023 Pennsylvania Derby, Saudi Crown, trained by Brad Cox, set the pace on the front end from start to finish under jockey Florent Geroux, winning by a half-length as the betting favorite. This year, Cox brings Dragoon Guard into the race as the likely betting favorite, with the same running style and the same jockey aboard. However, different than last year, when Saudi Crown entered the race off a runner-up effort, Dragoon Guard enters the race seeking his fifth straight win, the last two in similar stakes races. Dragoon Guard won the Indiana Derby on the first weekend in July, leading in hand and steadily increasing his margin to the wire, earning a 106 Equibase Speed Figure in the process. Four weeks later, using the same tactics, Dragoon Guard once again set a measured pace and extended his margin in the stretch with a similar 105 figure. Considering the makeup of this race, none of the horses inside Dragoon Guard in the gate are likely to challenge for the early lead. This will once again give Geroux the opportunity to put this long striding grey colt on the front end from where he can get into a steady stride and not be caught. This is particularly true since the West Virginia Derby was the first time Dragoon Guard ran the nine furlong distance of the Pennsylvania Derby. As such, Dragoon Guard appears to be the one to catch, and to beat, in this field.
Unmatched Wisdom won the first three races of his career in May through July, culminating with a victory in the Curlin Stakes at the distance of the Pennsylvania Derby. That effort earned Unmatched Wisdom a career-best 107 figure certainly as fast as the two best figures of 106 and 105 Dragoon Guard has earned to date. In his only start since, trying a mile and one-quarter for the first time in the Travers Stakes four weeks ago, Unmatched Wisdom was bumped at the start and never got near the front as he had in all three previous races. Additionally, a wrapping on one of his legs came loose and was flapping behind him, which could have been another reason he ended up seventh of eight and badly beaten. Not only should the cut back in distance to nine furlongs help him, but Unmatched Wisdom is reunited with jockey Flavien Prat, who was aboard for all three of the colts wins but not the defeat last month. One more interesting note is that trainer Chad Brown won the 2016 Pennsylvania Derby with Connect, who finished sixth in the Travers the previous month.
Timeout has never finished farther back then third in five races, winning once. That effort came at this nine furlong trip in June. He followed it up with a career-best effort and 101 figure when third behind Unmatched Wisdom in the Curlin Stakes in July. In his most recent race, Timeout closed well from fourth and six and one-half lengths back in the early stages, to second by one-half length behind the winner on the wire. This well bred son of Curlin is trained by Bill Mott, who won the 2011 Pennsylvania Derby with a horse coming out of an allowance race at Saratoga the same as Timeout, so it would behoove us to give this colt a look when considering who has a chance to win.
Honorable mention goes to Stronghold, who finished seventh in the Kentucky Derby after winning the Santa Anita Derby in April. Stronghold enters the race off a decent second to Dragoon Guard and while no match for that colt in the stretch, the 102 figure was a career-best. Protective was so highly regarded even as a maiden he ran in the Wood Memorial Stakes, Peter Pan Stakes and Belmont Stakes this past spring. He earned a 99 figure in the Peter Pan when third and a similar 97 figure when earning his first win in his most recent start and is another that could be a factor for a minor award. Doc Sullivan is an extremely consistent colt who has finished first or second in eight of nine races. All but one were against New York breds only, but he won his only start against non-restricted company and when trying nine furlongs for the first time last month ran well to be second with a 97 figure. His odds may be high and as such he might be a horse we must consider for any exactas we play in this race.
Handicapper Picks
Win:
Dragoon Guard at odds of 8 to 5 or higher.
Unmatched Wisdom at odds of 3 to 1 or more.
Timeout at odds of 5 to 1 or more.
Exactas: Dragoon Guard over Unmatched Wisdom, Timeout, Stronghold, Protective, Doc Sullivan
Box Dragoon Guard, Unmatched Wisdom, Timeout
