Key Races & Bets for Saturday September 28th, 2024
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Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Stakes - Race 6 at Aqueduct (Belmont at the Big A) - Post Time 2:40 PM Eastern
Top Win Contender: Emmanuel, Far Bridge, Silver Knott
Other contenders: War Like Goddess
There is little doubt in my mind Get Smokin will go for the lead and open up, as he draws the rail and only wins when leading from the start. He won the 2023 Kentucky Turf Cup at this 12 furlong trip in that fashion, and he won the United Nations Stakes at 11 furlongs in July the same way, but there are too many good horses in this field who, in spite of the early pace, can run him down late.
War Like Goddess is trying to win this race for the third straight year, but she’s seven now and as shown by her loss last month in the Flower Bowl stakes at 6 to 5 odds she is more vulnerable than in the past two years, although she still can hit the board.
Emmanuel is the most interesting horse in the race. We can compare his 7 for 17 record (with zero second place finishes) to the 12 for 21 career record of War Like Goddess (with just three second place finishes). He’s five and just one before last was moved from the Pletcher barn to Mike Maker’s barn, via a private purchase. He only tried a marathon distance (11 furlongs or more) once previously, two back in the United Nations, and he was not disgraced a bit when rallying from nine lengths back to be beaten just a length when fourth behind Get Smokin, and in spite of being steadied early. In his first start for Maker, in the $1 million Mint Millions Stakes, Emmanuel moved up from fourth to second with a quarter mile to go then faded to fifth, BUT was only two lengths behind the winner. The pace in that race was SIZZLING, with the six furlong fraction 1:08, so on a much more leisurely pace at 12 furlongs today, and with blinkers on, I expect Emmanuel to be in a stalking position. His workout just before leaving Kentucky last week was fantastic – four furlongs in 46.8, the third best of 87 on the day, suggesting blinkers is just what he needs to get back into winning form.
Far Bridge won the identical Sword Dancer Stakes last month at 8 to 1 odds under Rosario, wo rides back. He led from start to finish but that’s irrelevant as no other horse wanted the lead in the five horse field and he crawled along on a very slow pace. He won the Belmont Derby last year rallying from eighth of 11 and so I suspect he too will be in a stalking position late and able to have a strong impact again.
Silver Knott stalked in second in the Sword Dancer for the first mile and a quarter than had nothing left for the drive and faded to third. He won the Man o’ War two before that when rallying from third early and he gets a change in jockey as Prat is in California today. Davis rides and just won the Jockey Club Oaks with Beautiful Love for these connections. I expect Silver Knott to be second or third early, perhaps ahead of Far Bridge, and may get first run on Get Smokin before Emmanuel and Far Bridge get into high gear, so he rounds out the trio of horses with the highest probability to win.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Emmanuel appears to be the horse among the three win contenders likely to offer the best value, and so we should consider him as a win bet at 2 to 1 or more. I might consider Far Bridge and Silver Knott for a second bet at 5 to 2 or more.
Exacta: Emmanuel, Silver Knott and Far Bridge over Emmanuel, Silver Knott, Far Bridge and War Like Goddess
Pilgrim Stakes - Race 11 at Aqueduct (Belmont at the Big A) - Post Time 5:17 PM Eastern
Top Win Contender: Zulu Kingdom
Other win contenders: ALL
Two year old stakes around two turns on grass can be pretty wide open and this may be no exception with five of eight exiting wins. The best of those efforts was by Zulu Kingdom, who won the one level lower With Anticipation Stakes (at this distance) last month at Saratoga. Even so, and even as he’s trained by Chad Brown, he may not be favored as Brown also saddles Early Adopter, and McGaughey has impressive first out winner (around two turns) Concord Green in the race. Nevertheless Zulu Kingdom wins if he continues to improve, making his third career start, second in the U.S. and second in a stakes. He won first out in France in a field of 12 with a 96 Equibase Figure then earned a 90 figure in the With Anticipation. The highest figure of any other horse in the field is 83, so they could have to significantly improve to win even if Zulu Kingdom ran the same race he did four weeks ago.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Zulu Kingdom at odds of 3 to 2 or more.
Exacta: Zulu Kingdom over ALL
California Crown John Henry Turf Championship Stakes - Race 7 at Santa Anita - Post Time 6:30 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Balnikhov, Gold Phoenix
Other win contenders and horses to use on exacta/trifecta tickets: Dicey Mo Chara, Rockemperor
Six of the 11 entered come out of the Del Mar Handicap four weeks ago. Gold Phoenix won by a neck over Dicey Mo Chara in that race, with Balnikhov another head back. I feel pretty confident Balnikhov can turn the tables on the other two here, because Flavien Prat is in California to ride him and a couple of others on this stakes laden card. If you’ll recall Prat dominated in top races at Saratoga this summer, breaking the record for most stakes and graded stakes wins. That was a continuation of a big year for Prat, who over the last 12 months has won 53 of 135 graded stakes. Balnikhov was 7 to 2 in the Del Mar Handicap and shouldn’t be lower odds here, and he has a big shot of making up that total of a neck deficit in this race. He won at a mile and three-sixteenths in France earlier in his career so and he cuts back from 11 furlongs to 10 so I’m not worried about the distance. He has a big kick and in the two races over the past 18 months he’s faced Gold Phoenix, he was beaten a total of one length, so with any luck at all he can win.
Gold Phoenix is no slouch to be sure, having won seven of 20 on turf for $1.5 million (compared to 5 of 25 and $1 million for Balnikhov). However, he finished fifth in this race last year as the 6 to 5 favorite after winning the Del Mar Handicap. He won the Whittingham Stakes in May at this distance over the course but was 0 for 4 at the distance prior to that so he can win but doesn’t have to win.
Dicey Mo Chara is a great horse to key in second, and/or third, on exacta and trifecta tickets, owing to his 4-6-3 record in 22 career turf races. He finished second, beaten a neck, in this race in 2022 and he enters the race off that big effort when a neck behind Gold Phoenix in the Del Mar Handicap. Berrios rode him for the first time last month and rides back again.
Rockemperor was fourth in the Del Mar Handicap after leading after a mile and one-half and coming up a neck short in the mile and three-quarter San Jaun Capistrano Stakes in June. He too runs second or third as much as he wins (4-6-6 in 33 turf races) but has banked over $1 million and must be considered for exacta and trifecta tickets. Rispoli riding for the first time could help his chances as well.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Balnikhov and Gold Phoenix can be bet to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.
Exactas: Balnikhov and Gold Phoenix over Balnikhov, Gold Phoenix, Dicey Mo Chara and Rockemperor
