Key Races & Bets for Saturday September 7th, 2024
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Music City Stakes - Race 7 at Kentucky Downs - Post Time 4:04 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Pounce, Time to Dazzle
Exacta/Trifecta contenders: Kairyu, Buttercream Babe, Simply In Front, Vive Veuve, Twirling Queen and Toupie.
Pounce and Time to Dazzle both have about the same fairly high probability to win this race. Both are trained by an excellent trainer in Mark Casse and both won their most recent races, which were grade 3 stakes at the distance of one mile. Pounce rallied four paths wide into the stretch and put in a very strong finish to go from fourth to draw off late under jockey Dylan Davis, who rides her back.
Time to Dazzle led from start to finish and won by an easy four and one-half length margin. Since they have different running styles, they complement each other and figures to run their best races, which benefit from the cut back in distance which gives them some extra energy in the late stages of the race.
There are a number of horses which could finish second or third and are entering the race off good efforts. Those are Kairyu, Buttercream Babe, Simply In Front, Vive Veuve, Twirling Queen and Toupie.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Pounce and Time to Dazzle should be considered for win bets at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.
Exactas: Pounce, Time to Dazzle over Pounce, Time to Dazzle, Kairyu, Buttercream Babe, Simply In Front, Vive Veuve, Twirling Queen, Toupie.
Mint Millions Stakes - Race 8 at Kentucky Downs - Post Time 4:41 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Irish Aces, Ancient Rome, Mountain Bear, Funtastic Again
Exacta/Trifecta contender: Talk of the Nation
Irish Aces won the Tapit Stakes here at Kentucky Downs on opening day, August 29. It is a bit unusual for a horse to return to run in just a week but it not an impossible task and we must trust the trainer to know if the horse is capable of running “A” races close together. In this case I think Irish Aces has potential to win two stakes in about a week, because trainer Brendan Walsh has only brought a horse back from short rest a couple of times, and one of them won here at Kentucky Downs a few years back. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione rides Irish Aces back and the horse appears to have a big shot if he can repeat his effort in the Tapit Stakes.
Ancient Rome is a Kentucky bred who has run 18 times in Europe, winning five times and finishing second in four others, some at the top level. His best European effort came in July when second in the Summer Mile Stakes, then he shipped to North American to run in the Arlington Million four weeks ago, rallying for third at the end. Last September, Ancient Rome shipped in to Kentucky Downs from Europe to win this race off a win in England in August and so he’s on the same pattern, particularly with jockey Jamie Spencer riding as he did for the win in this race.
Mountain Bair is a three year old who faced older in his last two starts, finishing second in a Group 3 stakes in Ireland a little over four weeks ago. That was his best effort ever and he, like Ancient Rome, has run in North America previously as he came over last November and closed strongly from 10th to run second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. This colt has a lot of talent and would be no surprise if successful for the top Aiden O’Brien barn.
Funtastic Again has run this mile turf trip twice, finishing second in both tries, the most recent of particular note as he was beaten just a half-length at the end in the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile by Johannes, who won a similar race in his next start. Gerardo Corrales was aboard for the colt’s last three wins and gets back on so that is another sign for a strong effort.
In addition to the four horses above, Talk of the Nation could be a contender as he’s finished first or second in nine of 12 races, including a win last September at Kentucky Downs at this mile distance in a stakes race restricted to three year olds. Since then he finished second twice (beaten by inches), third once and fourth once. The reason he may not be as probable to win is that in his last four races he had a better position with an eighth of a mile to run than he did at the finish, for example one before last he was second by a head in the stretch but was beaten a half-length at the end.
Handicapper Picks
Win: We have to start with Irish Aces, with starting odds of 12 to 1 although he was 3 to 1 winning the Tapit Stakes last week. He can be bet at 3 to 1 or more. The other horse with requisite return for the risk is Mountain Bear, who opens at 10 to 1, and so we can consider a win bet on him at 4 to 1 or more.
Exacta: Box Mountain Bear, Irish Aces, Funtastic Again, Talk of the Nation, Ancient Rome
Franklin Simpson Stakes - Race 9 at Kentucky Downs - Post Time 5:18 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Howard Wolowitz, Evade, Mansa Mursa, Smokey Smokey
Others contenders: Save the Trees, How’s Ur Attitude
If you haven’t been living in a cave behind a waterfall, you’ll recognize the name Howard Wolowitz from “The Big Bang Theory” TV series which ran for 12 seasons. The horse may not be the science dork he’s named for, but a talented three year old turf sprinter. After changing trainers following a poor debut in March, Howard Wolowitz destroyed his competition in winning by almost eight lengths in June. So highly regarded off the win he was entered in the Mahony Stakes four weeks ago, Howard Wolowitz might have won the race is not for considerable traffic trouble which saw him stymied behind a wall of horses in the late stages while wanting to lengthen his stride. Even so, that was one of the fastest recent races among this group and knowing it would have been faster had he been allowed to run to his potential, he may be the one to beat today particularly with a jockey change to Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Evade makes his North American debut after coming from Europe and joining the Mike Maker barn. His best race came in May at a similar distance in a stakes race and his recent workout makes it appear he may be able to repeat that effort so he must be respected as a contender.
Mansa Musa didn’t run well in the Mahony Stakes but just prior to that ran two “A” races in a row, the best of which was a runner-up effort in the Quick Call Stakes in New York. He has four runner-up efforts to go along with two wins so may be held to a minor award but just the same he fits with these.
Smokey Smokey is trained by Maker the same as Evade. He won the Paradise Creek Stakes at the slightly shorter distance of six furlongs one before last in May from just off the pace and gets a great post to stalk the pace and perhaps repeat that effort.
Save the Trees and How’s Ur Attitude are both “also-eligbles” which can run if any of the horses in the main body of 12 should withdraw. If they do run they also warrant a look. Save the Trees moves to turf for the first time but has won two of four and is in the strong Maker barn. How’s Ur Attitude finished second in a stakes which was supposed to be run on turf but was moved to dirt because of weather. He is bred for turf and ran second in that race, which was the best effort to date in his career.
Handicapper Picks
Win: We should first consider Howard Wolowitz at odds of 5 to 2 or more. Evade can be considered at odds of 3 to 1 or more. Smokey Smokey may be considered at 5 to 1 or more.
Exactas: Box Howard Wolowitz, Evade, Mansa Musa, Smokey Smokey
(add or substitute Save the Trees and How’s Ur Attitude)
