The Fountain of Youth
The Fountain of Youth, part of a cross country all dirt pick 5 with races from Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita may have lost Mo Donegal, but it remains a full competitive field with a lot of options. Opinions are being floated all across social media and on podcasts and racing shows and it looks like we will have a few hot buzz horses people seem to be gravitating to. There is plenty of chatter about Simplification off the troubled left at the gate start in the Holy Bull and A. P.’s Secret who almost everyone opining feels is sitting on a big race and forward move. Personally, I am not sold on either of those two.
I’ll run down the field and try and separate the contenders from the pretenders.
On paper this looks like a hot and contested pace race. It appears there is plenty of early speed in here which would have been an ideal set up for Mo Donegal. He is slightly sick and will point to the Wood Memorial. I would have preferred he was well and stayed in here. I was not sold on him either.
Markhamian has speed, comes out of sprints, drew the rail and will be part of the pace or at least should be. This is a tough spot to stretch out and I suspect he will be gobbled up at some point.
Simplication gets Jose Ortiz for Javier Castellano. We all saw the bad break and subsequent rally into contention. That will drive the price down considerably. Will he now rate or was the last a result of the break and a one time deal? I’m not sure and don’t care. I will bet against this one either way. I was not as impressed as many others last time. He is OK, and would be anything but a shocker, but he is not for me.
Howling Time is interesting. He makes his three-year old debut and has showed talent already. Dale Romans went from being deadly in these spots to almost an also ran. Maybe he can wake up from the crypt. Howling Time rallied from off the pace in his first two starts, both wins, one at six and one at a distance. His third race was in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club, and he went for the lead and tired. He is working fast and good, he should be coming from off the pace with plenty of speed to set him up, and probably gets completely overlooked. He comes out of a key race despite the Smile Happy flop, and I think he is dangerous.
In Due Time should be sitting in a good spot in here. If he can finish at two turns the way he finished last time in a one turn mile he can make noise in here. I don’t think he is up to winning this, and a regress off the last is possible, I’ll pass.
Dean Delivers has been all sprint so far and again this is a tough spot to stretch out. He will have some pace, but I doubt he is in this when it counts.
Rattle and Roll is another I find interesting and live. He comes from off the pace and has a nice late rally in his arsenal. His works coming in are excellent, he is a Grade 1 winner at Keeneland, and I think he will fire in this three-year-old debut into the right set up.
A.P.’s Secret is going to take money, maybe more than he should. He’ll likely be up close in here and I have reservations about him. He will have to prove to me he is this good.
Emmanuel will also take money, plenty of it and has much to prove here. That said he is two for two, and I like horses coming off the Tampa track. I don’t believe he needs the lead and despite a lack of value and the need to improve to win, I have to call him a threat and contender.
High Oak can run, and I admit I am partial to him after a nice score I made in Saratoga when he won the Saratoga Special. He returns in a tough spot to stretch out and I see this as more of a prep or steppingstone race for him. Mott is too good for me to call him a toss.
I liked Giant Game last time and he had zero to offer. Fortunately for me I also like White Abarrio who got it done. Romans brings him right back; he has the right style, but the last flop is a mystery. He is a question mark for me.
O Captain comes in off two sprints and would need a big step forward to contend. I do not see it here.
If Galt goes he will have to overcome a tough post. His race in the Holy Bull was OK, but he showed speed there and will have to sit a trip from a wide slot here. I think he has an outside shot at a big price.
Ken McPeek is due some luck at this meet and I think I will lean to Rattle and Roll. He will have the right set-up, and I think he will fire off the bench.
I will go back at him in the pick 5 but use a few other contenders on the deeper ticket. Hopefully the price stays fair.
Enjoy the races!
