The Grade 2 Elkhorn
Last week we were able to nail The Lexington winner and we will see if we can do it again this Saturday at Keeneland.
I’ll look at the Elkhorn for two reasons. I think the favorite will be an underlay and I love turf marathons.
The Grey Wizard breaks from the rail off a layoff. He can handle this distance and has won fresh over this course. Saez up helps and I view him as a contender in a competitive race.
King Curlin is from a barn that wins races but not many at this level and he looks cheap for these. He is honest but I do not believe he is this good.
Highland Chief is off a long lay-off and may wind up on a lonely lead in here. It will be tough to wire these off that long, November of 2022 but it is Johnny V for Motion and speed in a turf marathon is always dangerous. It is still a big ask, not an impossible one but a big one. I’d want a very fair price north of 6-1.
Bold Act is 3-2 on the morning line for Appleby, Frankie, and powerhouse Godolphin. He won the Sycamore here in the fall at this distance and will likely be a very short price for who he is. Sure he can win but I am not sold he is the best Godolphin horse in here today.
Dynadrive looks to be a cut below at least a few of these.
Wentru may show speed or press and help weaken Johnny’s horse. Winning, I don’t see it.
Winning Spirit is a bit tough to gauge but you have to respect the barn and what they can do and how they spot their horses. If this colt can transfer the German and Italian form here at this level, he can get involved here. He can run all day, is lightly raced, and still has upside.
Foreign Relations should be up close in here and has the look of a fringe player who may get a piece but doubtful on the win end.
Lucky Curlin would be a major upset but note Maker keeps him at the stakes level off a complete dud in another stake off the claim.
Missed the Cut ships in from California and get Irad. This horse has never been better and can run this far. Sadler is not as good away from California as he is in it and California grass horses generally don’t fare well at Keeneland. There are always exceptions and this guy is in the right spot with the right jock to overcome all those negatives. He is a contender.
I like the other Godolphin horse, Silver Knott. This horse has had some legit excuses, less than ideal trips and rides, and is overdue to trounce a field like this in my opinion. Prat helps that cause considerably and he can have this gelding just about anywhere he wants him. He has yet to go this far but I do not believe it will pose a problem. I’ll land right here.
