The Lexington 2024
A field of ten horses are scheduled to go to post for The Lexington on Saturday and why not, a win can get you into the gate on the First Saturday in May. I’ll look at the field and see who I think gets home first here.
Secret Chat goes from the rail which is not generally a bad place to be at Keeneland. He has never run a bad one in his three starts to date but he has also never run good enough to win this. He would have to move forward significantly which is not impossible but not likely in my view.
The Wine Steward is a talented horse and if he can win this off the bench he deserves to compete with the best of the crop. He is well drawn inside and has tactical speed for Luis Saez to use as he sees fit. This New York bred can run and he would be no surprise in here.
Dilger comes off a hard-fought win at Gulfstream Park to break his maiden. Tyler sticks but he is likely to regress off the hard race and moving into this company won’t help.
Footprint is often around the money without getting it. He does have a nice win over the track and that is not something I take lightly but I don’t see him getting another Saturday.
Hades is looking for some redemption after winning the Holy Bull beating Fierceness on the square and then flopping in the Florida Derby. Blinkers go on and Jose Ortiz replace Paco Lopez. He has the always dangerous speed in his arsenal, and this is a short stretch mile and a sixteenth race both which play in his favor. I’m not a believer.
How’s Ur Attitude tries the dirt after three just “OK” synthetic races. Good barn and bred well and while I do not think he is a likely winner I can see him making some noise and hitting the board.
Everdoit looks overmatched to me.
Encino is very interesting and likely where I’ll land. He scratched out of the Blue Grass in favor of this easier spot to make his dirt debut. He was good enough to win a stake at Turfway park straight off the maiden breaker and Cox calling the shots can’t hurt. He works good on the dirt and is bred to handle it just fine. I think he will sit a good trip in here and run a big race.
Liberal Arts gets Irad which means he will get a lot of looks. If you can forgive the last two at Oaklawn he starts to look interesting and he is trained by a former Shug assistant who knows his way around a nice horse. I don’t like his set up on paper or the short stretch for him.
Lucky Jeremy should ensure a legit pace, but I don’t see him having enough gas in the tank late to close this deal.
I’ll take a shot Encino can handle the dirt and maybe even move up on it. Flo should have him in a good spot all the way around and I think he will get a jump on the closers but not get too caught up with the speed.
