Race 7 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 3:03 PM Eastern

I think four horses can win this race – Masterday, Moon Over Miami, Tiz Rye Time and Sounion. The first and third of the quartet open at double digit odds and both have chances to succeed much greater than those odds suggest. Masterday won as he pleased in his debut in November in a field of 12 and decently regarded at 6 to 1. Sent to post at 9 to 2 in a first level allowance like this one, at a mile, in December he was moving up fantastically on the inside when steadied so hard he had to go back to last of eight, losing all chance. It wasn’t Luis Saez’ fault, but nevertheless today Masterday gets a jockey change to Lopez which can’t hurt. As a son of New Year’s Day, a hot sire in 2019, Masterday should have no problem with two turns today and can save ground mid-pack from the two post, just needing for Lopez to shift him out and find a path to run in the stretch to post the upset, opening at 12/1.

Moon Over Miami improved a ton to break his maiden last out in a one turn mile race at Aqueduct and fits perfectly at this first allowance level for Mott, getting John Velazquez to ride and getting an outside post which enables Velazquez to get into a mid-pack position before the first turn. Having earned the best last race Equibase figure (93) in the field and likely to improve again in his third career start this son of Malibu Moon is a horse we could be talking about as having Derby potential after this race.

Tiz Rye Time didn’t do anything wrong last out winning second time out and in a one turn mile the same as Moon Over Miami, but he opens at 10/1 compared to 3/1 for Moon over Miami. The win came over the track and Leparoux, who rode both this colt and Sounion, opts for this well-bred son of Tiznow. Wilkes is known for taking his time so for this colt to have won second time out may be a testament to his ability, and it must be noted Wilkes has a very strong 6 for 28 record with last out maiden winners in allowance dirt routes over the past few years.

Sounion has one edge over the other three in that he’s run two turns, having missed by a neck in his second career start at the end of October. Running in a one turn mile at the end of November, the colt won nicely and earned a 92 figure nearly identical to top figure earner Moon Over Miami. Although losing Leparoux to Tiz Rye Time, Sounion picks up Irad Ortiz, Jr. so there are really no concerns about him running another big race.

Bets

 Win: Masterday to win at odds of 3/1.
“IF” Moon over Miami is near 3/1 at post time he is playable as well.

I might consider a smaller win bet on Tiz Rye Time at 5 to 1 or more.
For the record, Sounion has minimum win betting odds of 4/1 but is unlikely to go to post at those odds or higher.

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When making multiple win bets, use a “Dutching” tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Exacta: Box Masterday Moon, Over Miami, Tiz Rye Time and Sounion

Pick 3 –
Race 7: Masterday, Moon Over Miami, Tiz Rye Time, Sounion
Race 8: Andina Del Sur, Munchkin Money
Race 9: Squeezadios, Yes I See, McErin, Cutting Humor

Double:
Race 7: Masterday, Moon Over Miami, Tiz Rye Time, Sounion
Race 8: Andina Del Sur, Munchkin Money

Marshua’s River Stakes – Race 8 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 3:34 PM Eastern

The contention in the race boils down to two of the three starting favorites, Andina Del Sur and Munchkin Money, but not Sweet Bye and Bye because although third behind Andina Del Sur in the Forever Together Stakes when last seen (November 29) she was no match and the beaten favorite at 3 to 2. She won a second level allowance two before that and the winning effort isn’t going to get it done here if repeated.

Munchkin Money opens at a fairly playable 7 to 2, the mare coming around and making her second start at the meeting after an eighth to third rally last month in the pretty similar My Charmer Stakes. She missed second by a head with a strong 107 figure which stacks up well with the 106 figure Andina Del Sur earned winning the Forever Together Stakes and whereas Andina Del Sur has a record of 0-1-3 in five starts on the Gulfstream Park turf course, Munchkin Money won twice last season (January and March 2019) with 104 and 106 figure efforts.

Andina Del Sur had Castellano up for the first time in the win in New York last time out, and she won the similar Violet Stakes at Monmouth two races before that. She doesn’t really love to win, but with either of those efforts repeated here, if Munchkin Money doesn’t run her best race, Andina Del Sur is likely to win her second stakes race in a row.

Bets

Win: Munchkin Money to win at 8 to 5 or more, a low odds overlay win bet.

Exacta: Munchkin Money and Andina Del Sur over Munchkin Money, Andina Del Sur and Sweet Bye and Bye

Pick 3 (two plays to maximize value) –
Race 8: Andina Del Sur, Munchkin Money
Race 9: Squeezadios, Yes I See, McErin, Cutting Humor
Race 10: ALL

Race 8: Andina Del Sur, Munchkin Money
Race 9: ALL
Race 10: Exulting

Double:
Race 8: Andina Del Sur, Munchkin Money
Race 9: Squeezadios, Yes I See, McErin, Cutting Humor

Race 9 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 4:06 PM Eastern

Yes I See as a veteran nine year old who hasn’t slowed down a bit, having won three of nine races last year including the Claiming Crown Iron Horse Stakes at this trip over the track last month at whopping odds of 66/1. He won at this second allowance level long ago so he’s in for the optional claiming price but that $62,500 tag is not an issue and as he won back to back in April and June of last year I see no reason he can’t win again here, still at decent enough odds, opening at 10/1. The 106 Equibase figure earned last month was no fluke and the race has turned out to be a KEY RACE to boot, with the runner-up not having run back yet but with the third horse finishing second as well as the fifth and six finishers improving to win.

Cutting Humor might go favored, opening at 7/2, and he has a much higher probability to win than 9/5 morning line favorite Endorsed, who is returning from four months off and is logically prepping for longer. On the other hand, with Cutting Humor in the Pletcher barn and with Pletcher having an amazing 41% win rate with horses coming back from these types of layoffs (since May) the colt who was last seen finishing 11th in last year’s Derby could be much bigger and stronger as a four year old and win off the long layoff.

With a vulnerable morning line favorite in Endorsed, I would also consider McErin and Squeezadios as contenders, opening at 10/1 and 20/1, respectively. McErin is also a Pletcher trainee and could get into a battle early with Brasstown, but he has rated second before and he may not be sent to the lead early as he was on grass for Servis and Ward. He’s certainly good for a share if he either gets an easy lead or relaxes off Brasstown. Squeezadios might seem a little cheap as he’s been running in mostly Florida bred only races, but he doesn’t really know how to run badly with a 3-4-2 record in 10 career races here at Gulfstream. His best ever came last out on 12/22 when he won by three in open company at 4 to 1 with a 100 figure, so at the least he MUST be used on any exacta or trifecta tickets played.

Bets

Win Bets: Yes I See and Cutting Humor at 5 to 2 or higher.

When making multiple win bets, use a “Dutching” tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Exactas:
Box Yes I See, Cutting Humor, McErin and Squeezadios