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Caress Stakes (Grade 2)- Race 5 at Saratoga – Post Time 2:47 PM Eastern
Top Win Contender: Italian Soiree, Sunna
Italian Soiree finished second in a similar race, the Grade 2 Intercontinental Stakes at Saratoga, on June 4. She improved from her last turf sprint in April, off a six-month layoff, and earned a career-best 104 Equibase Speed Figure. She also won the Coronation Stakes last weekend last year, in her only other start on this course. This four-year-old filly should improve again, and she should be one of the two top contenders.
Sunna is unbeaten in four straight turf races. She is also a four-year-old filly who just earned a career-best 99 figure in her recent race on June 3. One race before her last, she won the Very One Stakes on May 15 when she led from the start, and she won two of her four turf sprints stalking. She is improving, but she needs to be better than Italian Soiree.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Italian Soiree at 2 to 1 or higher.
Sunna at 5 to 2 or higher.
Exactas: Box Italian Soiree, Sunna
Double:
Race 5: Italian Soiree, Sunna
Race 6: D’muehl
Race 6 at Saratoga – Post Time 3:21 PM Eastern
Top Win Contender: D’muehl
D’muehl is an interesting first starter, with all but Annotate (who is on the also-eligible list) as first starters. Her sire, Army Mule, is trained by Brad Cox, who wins nearly 30% with first starters, and is ridden by jockey Jamie Rodriguez, who has just started running for Cox in the past year, but they have won 7 of 22 starts (32%) together. Army Mule has sired 10 horses running in this type of race (New York statebreds, dirt sprints, maiden special weights), and five of those progeny have won. This filly has been training every seven days for this race, and in one of those workouts she sizzled 47.4 for four furlongs and was fifth of 127 on that date.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: D’muehl at 3 to 1 or higher.
Indiana Derby (Grade 3) – Race 12 at Horseshoe Indianapolis – Post Time 6:40 PM Eastern
Top Win Contender(s): Leading Change
Horses for second in exactas: Zihnal, Our Moneyman, Out of the Woods
It is likely Desert Gate will race in the Iowa Derby, but if he runs in this race, he can also be used in exactas.
Leading Change has just one win in one race, but it was powerful. Five weeks ago, Leading Change showed a lot of maturity when he was third at the quarter and half mile, and when jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. asked him to go, he won easily by almost seven lengths, earning an Equibase Speed Figure of 90. Other horses have run faster, such as Our Moneyman with 92 to 95 figures in his last three races, but in his sixth through his eighth starts, or Creole Chrome with 95 in his seventh race. Leading Change should improve by leaps and bounds. Cox has raced in the Indiana Derby four times, with a 2-1-0 record, including Verifying (2023) and Dragoon Guard (2024). Considering top jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. rides him again and with Cox’s excellent record in this race, Leading Change is the horse to beat.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Leading Change at 9 to 5 or higher.
Exactas: Leading Change over Zihnal, Our Moneyman, Out of the Woods (and Desert Gate)
Iowa Derby – Race 7 at Prairie Meadows – Post Time 8:53 PM Eastern
Top Win Contender(s): JJ Grey, The Hell We Did, Desert Gate
JJ Grey won all three of his dirt routes, including the Prairie Mile Stakes on June 13. He won on May 2 and earned a 92 Equibase Speed Figure at this distance before he improved to a 95 figure in the Prairie Mile. That was the fastest of any of these horses in their last race. The horses that earned their highest Equibase Speed Figure at Prairie Meadows on dirt routes have won 44% of 141 races in the last year. JJ Gray also has a stalking style when he ran third and second early, where Desert Gate is one of three other possible “early” pace horses. He opens at 4 to 1, and he will be less than that, but with Desert Gate the favorite, JJ Grey will still make a decent bet.
The Hell We Did is trying to rebound from his eighth-place finish in the Preakness on May 16 back to when he finished second in the Lexington Stakes on April 11. He won his first race this year on March 15 by 13 lengths and earned a 95 figure. He then earned a 92 in the Lexington. He is a stalker from the rail, which gives him another shot to improve. This horse has an excellent pedigree as he is by a dam who produced four multiple stakes winners, including Senor Buscador. He should be second or could win if he rebounds.
Desert Gate will be the favorite even though he just finished fourth in the Ohio Derby on June 20, where he battled the lead from second through the stretch before he tired. Before that, he won the Texas Derby on May 25 with a 98 figure and the Hot Springs on May 25 with a career-best 101 figure. In his routes, he has led or been beaten by a half-length. There are other horses inside him at the gate. He could get the lead, and if he does, he can win, but if he doesn’t, he may be out of the money.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: JJ Grey at 2 to 1 or higher.
The Hell We Did and Desert Gate at 5 to 2 or higher.
Exactas: Box J J Grey, The Hell We Did, Desert Gate
Prairie Meadows Cornhusker Handicap (Grade 3) – Race 8 at Prairie Meadows – Post Time 9:24 PM Eastern
Top Win Contender(s): Heroic Move, Cornishman, Navajo Warrior
Heroic Move and Cornishman finished second and first, respectively, in the 2025 Cornhusker Handicap with a head between them. Better than this year, both ran last year. Heroic Move finished third in the Steve Sexton Stakes last year, after he battled head and head from the half-mile pole all the way to the finish. This year, Heroic Move won the Steve Sexton Stakes earning a 110 Equibase Figure, faster than the 106 earned last year. He is also on his second race off a layoff of four months. Cornishman ran six races from February until he won the Jim and Sandra Rasmussen Stakes, where he finished second last year. He earned a 103 figure in the Rasmussen, similar to the 104 last year before he earned a 105 figure in last year’s Cornhusker. Both can win, but I like Heroic Move just a bit better.
Navajo Warrior opens at 5 to 2 compared to 4 to 1 for Heroic Move and 9 to 2 for Cornishman. He just won the Grade 3 Pimlico Special Stakes on May 15 with a 107 figure. Heroic Move won his last race, a grade 3 stakes. Navajo Warrior also won his second to last race on March 21 and earned a 106 figure. He doesn’t have a chink in his armor, so he must be used in exactas, doubles, and pick 3 bets.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Heroic Move, Cornishman, Navajo Warrior are to be considered at 5 to 2 or higher. However, Navajo Warrior starts at 5 to 2, and his odds will be less.
Exacta:
Box Heroic Move, Cornishman, Navajo Warrior