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Belmont Oaks (Grade 1)- Race 7 at Saratoga – Post Time 4:06 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender: Abashiri

Horses for second in exactas: Kensington Lane, Faithful Departed, Carmensita, Imaginationthelady

Trainer Charlie Appleby has Abashiri, a classy filly who finished third of 11 in the Group 1 Irish 1,000 Guineas. The winner was Precise, who then won the Group 1 Coronation Stakes early in June at Royal Ascot. Precise would be the odds-on favorite if she were running in this race. Abashiri was three lengths behind that filly and just a half-length from the runner-up, True Love, who had previously won the Group 1 England 1,000 Guineas in May. Abashiri was also nearly three lengths in front of the fourth horse. These three-year-old fillies in Europe are better than many U.S. horses at this time. Abashiri’s last Equibase Speed Figures were 112 and 115, by far better than the two U.S. entries, Faithful Departed (108 in the Grade 3 Regret Stakes) and Imaginationthelady (104 in the Grade 2 Edgewood Stakes).

The 2023 Belmont Oaks winner, Cinderella’s Dream, ran in this race after she finished 10th in the Guineas, and Abashiri ran better than that. In 2025, the winner of the Belmont Oaks also ran her last race in Europe, where she finished seventh in the England 1,000 Guineas. Trainer Appleby has an astounding record in North America with 13 wins and 10 second-place finishes in 35 races over the previous five years. Most of those came when his #1 jockey, William Buick, was riding, and Buick is riding in this race. Abashiri is the horse to beat.

The four horses I think can run second are: Kensington Lane, who finished fifth in the Irish 1,000 Guineas (which Abashiri finished third), Faithful Departed, Carmensita (making her second before a seven-month layoff and finishing second in a group 1 stakes race last November, earning a 109 figure in Argentina), and Imaginationthelady.

Handicapper Picks

Win bets: Abashiri at 3 to 2 or higher.

Exactas: Abashiri over Kensington Lane, Faithful Departed, Carmensita, Imaginationthelady

Double and Pick 3:

Race 7: Abashiri

Race 8: Phileas Fogg, Antiquarian

Race 9: Pacific Avenue, Title Role

Suburban Stakes (Grade 2) – Race 8 at Saratoga – Post Time 4:42 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender(s): Phileas Fogg, Antiquarian

Horses for second in exactas: Original Sin, Tiztastic

Phileas Fogg won the 2025 Suburban when he led at the start, opening by two lengths, then by three at the eighth pole, and barely winning by a head over Antiquarian. Last year, two races before this one, Phileas Fogg won the Excelsior Stakes at the same 10-furlong distance as the Suburban, but in that race, he stalked in second on the first two calls and won by five lengths. In his prep this year, Phileas Fogg had just two races, the one-turn prep, where he faded to third in a three-horse race after going way too fast. In his latest race, he led from the start and won easily by six lengths. He earned a 104 Equibase Speed Figure and should improve to the 110 figure from last year’s race or the 111 he posted when winning the Excelsior. There is another horse with early speed, Forged Steel, who should make the lead, but jockey Carmouche, who rode him in both races last year and in his last race, should be in second so that he could win the Suburban race again.

Just in case Phileas Fogg gets into it with Forged Steel, Antiquarian is the other horse with a shot to win. After finishing second in this race last year, Antiquarian won the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes in August, earning a career-best 112 figure. He finished eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last fall, then was out for six months.

When he started this year, he won the Grade 3 Westchester Stakes, earning an 111 figure. He might have improved, but he was sent into the Metropolitan Handicap, where he was early on the pace and faded to fourth. His best races came when he was third or second early, and in this case he should be in third early. He is the other horse I think can win this race.

Original Sin won the Grade 3 Blame Stakes, his first stakes win, at nine furlongs. He earned a 97 figure and previously earned a 105, also at nine furlongs. He would need a big effort to beat the top two, but he does have a shot at second. Tiztastic was off for eight months, and had an easy turf race on April 15, but he won a big race on May 9 at nine furlongs, earning a 103 figure. That was his first win since the Louisiana Derby last March, when he rallied powerfully from ninth to win at nine and one-half furlongs. He should have no problem with this distance, and he has the best kick in the field.

Handicapper Picks

Win bets: Phileas Fogg and Antiquarian at 3 to 1 or higher.

Exactas:

Box Phileas Fogg, Antiquarian

Box Phileas Fogg, Antiquarian, Original Sin, Tiztasic

Belmont Derby (Grade 1) – Race 9 at Saratoga – Post Time 5:20 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender(s): Pacific Avenue, Title Role

For second in exactas: Remember Mamba

In this Belmont Derby, we have two top Europeans, Pacific Avenue and Title Role. I believe that if this race were run 100 times with the same field, one or the other would win 80 times. Although Pacific Avenue finished third in his last race, the Group 1 Irish 2,000 Guineas. The winner was Gstaad, who has won three times and finished second in seven races. All were Group 2 or Group 1 races, including the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last fall. Gstaad would be the 1 to 5 favorite in this race, and Pacific Avenue is making his third race of the year, so Pacific Avenue is the next to that horse. His Equibase Speed Figures improved in the Guineas from 98 to 111, and he should take another big step forward. He is trained by Charlie Appleby, with William Buick riding, which I mentioned in the Oaks (Race 7).

However, Title Role beat Pacific Avenue the only time they faced each other. That was in February in a non-graded stakes race, where Title Role earned a 93 figure. He improved to a 103 figure, although he finished fifth; then he beat a field of 11 on May 25 in the Group 2 Germany 2,000 Guineas. That was a good race, but not nearly as good as the 2,000 Guineas, even though he earned a career-best 107 figure. So, if Pacific Avenue and Title Role both improve, it will be difficult to see Title Role beat Pacific Avenue.

Remember Mamba is the best of the U.S. entries. He won his three career races, including the Grade 3 Transylvania Stakes in April, where he earned a 100 figure. Then, in his fourth race, the Grade 1 American Turf Stakes last May 2, he started 13th and was still eleventh after the quarter pole, but he made a big kick to get second. The winner of that race was Stark Contrast, who had finished second behind Gstaad in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf.

Handicapper Picks

Win bets: Pacific Avenue at 3 to 2 or higher.

Title Role at 5 to 2 or higher.

Exacta:

Box Pacific Avenue, Title Role

Pacific Avenue, Title Role over Pacific Avenue, Title Role, Remember Mamba