Key Races & Bets for Saturday, March 16, 2019
Harrison E. Johnson Memorial Stakes – Race 5 at Laurel – Post Time 3:12 PM Eastern
Unbridled Juan brings his “A” game every time, even last month when third in the similar John B. Campbell Stakes. He made a big move on the turn to go from fourth to lead with an eighth of a mile to go and fought to the wire, missing the win by a pair of necks. He won back to back stakes last fall including the identical Richard W. Small Stakes with a 106 Equibase figure, the same as he earned last month, and perhaps just repeating that last effort may be good enough to win.
Cordmaker and Twisted Tom are the other two who can win, with Cordmaker the better win bet if anywhere near his 5 to 1 starting odds. Overmatched and squeezed back to 14th and last in the General George Stakes last month, Cordmaker stretches out from seven furlongs to two turns for the first time on dirt in his career but as a son of Curlin should have no problem with the distance. He won the Jennings Stakes over the track before the General George, with a career best 105 Equibase Figure, and he’s a four year old so has improving to do off that effort and dropping from graded to non-graded stakes. Twisted Tom ships in from New York for Mott and although he’s run in stakes for NY breds only for the last 18 months he did win a pair of stakes at Laurel as a three year old in the spring of 2017 including the Tesio Stakes at this nine furlong trip. His nose loss in the Alex M. Robb Stakes in December earned a career best 114 figure and then he ran well for third to earn a 107 figure around one turn, so stretching out to nine furlongs, the distance of three of his seven career wins, bodes well for his chances here.
I’m taking a stand against Pletcher’s Bonus Points, winner of last months’ John B. Campbell, as he got a 46.6 and 110.6 pace set up he will not see today, negating his late run.
Bets:
Win Bets: Unbridled Juan to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.
Cordmaker to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more.
Note: When making multiple win bets, use a “Dutching” tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.
Exactas: Box Twisted Tom, Unbridled Juan and Cordmaker.
Pick 3:
Race 5 – Twisted Tom, Unbridled Juan and Cordmaker.
Race 6 – Bobby G and Dynamax Prime.
Race 7 – Las Setas.
Also consider using “ALL” in race 6, since we are singling in race 7, taking advantage of a potentially wide open race.
Race 6 at Laurel – Post Time 3:42 PM Eastern
In a very intriguing starter allowance race sandwiched in between two stakes, Bobby G and Dynamax Prime both get preference as win contenders at very nice odds, but this is a race in which many have a shot. Bobby G won handily by five and one-half lengths two weeks ago, first off the claim by Corrales, after a 13 length win in the race claimed out of. Both came over the track and now McCarthy gets on with the gelding bred to run all day (by Awesome Again out of a Malibu Moon mare) so there’s little concern about the 10 furlong trip all are trying for the first time. The 97 figure was a career best and the gelding should continue in top form. Dynamax Prime runs first off the claim by Gonzalez, for a very sharp owner in Robert Bone. The gelding was NOT qualified for this level until dropped by his previous trainer into a $12,500 claiming race one before last, which he won by a nose, and when he remained at the level his current connections likely saw the opportunity to run in these starter races with an exceptionally high purse ($65K, $39K to the winner). Gonzalez wins 25% off the claim and Carrasco, who gets on, is the #1 winning jockey for the barn (30% wins on 100 races in the past 15 months) so all signs are “GO” for another big effort, with his nose win one before last earning the same 97 figure as Bobby G earned in his win over the track two weeks ago.
Bets:
Win bets: Bobby G and Dynamax Prime to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more.
Note: When making multiple win bets, use a “Dutching” tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.
Exactas: Bobby G and Dynamax Prime over all except Don’t Poke the Cat & Kopper Wired.
Play the reverse of that exacta as well, even if for $1, as it could pay very well and we win twice if they Bobby G and Dynamax Prime run one-two.
Pick 3:
Race 6 – Bobby G and Dynamax Prime.
Race 7 – Las Setas.
Race 8 – Always Mining and Joevia.
Pick 3:
Race 6 – ALL (except Don’t Poke the Cat & Kopper Wired).
Race 7 – Las Setas.
Race 8 – Always Mining and Joevia.
Beyond the Wire Stakes – Race 7 at Laurel – Post Time 4:12 PM Eastern
If we are live in the pick 3’s there is no reason to play but if not, Las Setas is a standout and playable to win at odds of 9 to 5 or more. In this eight horse field, Las Setas is the “Lone Front Runner” just as she was last month when winning the nearly identical Wide Country Stakes and when breaking her maiden in wire-to-wire fashion one month earlier. She earned a field high 92 Equibase figure for that effort, her second strong improvement off her maiden debut in December, and she should continue to improve.
Bets:
Win bets: Las Setas to win at 9 to 5 or more.
Private Terms Stakes – Race 8 at Laurel- Post Time 4:43 PM Eastern
Alwaysmining is a fairly legitimate favorite but opens at 4 to 5. Hopefully we will be live for a decent profit (at least more than what the same amount to win would pay) in the pick 3. Joevia is the only other horse that can win in my opinion and opens at decent 7 to 2 odds. Alwaysmining has run 10 times, winning five, while Joevia has only run twice,, hence the latter opening at higher odds although his last effort, when beaten a neck in the Winkfield Stakes at Aqueduct, earned a nearly identical Equibase figure (98) to the 99 figure Alwaysmining earned winning the Miracle Wood Stakes last month at Laurel. Neither horse has EVER run two-turns until today and with Joevia having excellent upside in his third career start, coming out of a KEY race from which the winner (Haikal) came back from to win the Gotham last weekend, I’m really hoping he posts the mild upset to win.
Bets:
Win Bets: Joevia to win at odds of 9 to 5 or more.
Exacta: Box Joevia and Alwaysmining.
Inside Information Stakes – Race 11 at Gulfstream – Post Time 5:37 PM Eastern
Jala Jala proved her stakes win against Caribbean horses on 12/8 to be no fluke when 2nd of 7 last month in the Royal Delta Stakes at a mile and the cut back to seven furlongs helps her chances of continuing to improve in her 3rd U.S. start. She beat Tequilita by a neck for 2nd but opens at 6 to 1 compared to 5 to 2 for that one, and the 105 figure is on par with Cairenn’s stakes winning figure, Pink Sand’s stakes winning figure and with only Teresa Z’s figure from November higher. Jaramillo rides back and Jala Jala has a sharp work since raced so could run well enough to win. Pink Sands ran well in a one turn mile over the track last month in an allowance race, earning a stakes quality 107 figure, her 2nd win in a row, and is ready for stakes company for the hot McGaughey barn (12 for 51 at the meeting). There are no real knocks except likely low odds on Cairenn, Tequilita and Teresa Z.
Bets:
Win bets: Jala Jala and Pink Sands at odds of 3 to 1 or more.
Note: When making multiple win bets, use a “Dutching” tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.
Exactas: Box Jala Jala, Pink Sands and Cairenn.
Box Jala Jala, Pink Sands and Tequilita.
Box Jala Jala, Pink Sands and Teresa Z.
Rebel Stakes:
Although not available on Amwager, the Rebel Stakes is interesting and it is the Equibase weekly feature race.
Here are the win contenders in the two divisions:
Race 8:
Galilean
Long Range Toddy
Improbable
Race 10:
Omaha Beach
Our Braintrust
Game Winner
