City of Hope Stakes (Grade 2) – Race 3 Santa Anita – Post Time 5:06 PM Eastern (2:06 Pacific)
Top Win Contender(s): Teao
Although this is a good six-horse field of milers at this City Hope Stakes, I think Teao is the best horse to win. This Chilean import has won six of 12 races in his career, including some of the four top stakes in South America in fields of 11 to 16 horses. He has won four of his last five at two-turn races. He won the best race in South America, the Group 1 Gran Premio Latinoamericano Stakes which has a $285K purse, in April. His last races were on turf, and his recent race earned an 111 Equibase Speed Figure, better than the favorite King of Gosford, who earned a 108 figure when he won the Del Mar Mile Stakes. Teao put in a series of excellent workouts in Southern California, including an excellent five-furlong time of 59.2, and he is set to win.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Teao at odds of 2 to 1 or higher.
Eddie D. Stakes (Grade 2) – Race 5 at Santa Anita – Post Time 6:10 PM Eastern (3:10 Pacific)
Top Win Contender(s): Sumter, Freedom’s Not Free
In this downhill turf distance of six at one-half furlongs at Santa Anita, the most significant factor is how many horses have run at this trip and run well, particularly in graded stakes. A number have won at this distance, and a few have won in stakes. However, the best recent race was the Grade 3 Daytona Stakes on June 13, where Freedom’s Not Free won by a nose with Sumter finishing second. Freedom’s Not Free won that race off a layoff since last August and put in a scintillating rally from seventh at the eight pole to win. Sumter also put in an excellent rally from sixth at the quarter pole to lead, but he couldn’t sustain his momentum. Jockey Juan Hernandez rode Freedom’s Not Free to victory in his recent win, and both of the horse’s last races can be discounted, as both were one mile and different jockeys rode. Now Freedom’s Not Free cuts back to the distance of his win, and Hernandez gets back aboard.
Sumter won the Grade 3 San Simeon at this distance on March 14, earning a 115 figure, getting the rail, the same as he did when he won the Eddie D again. Sumter also finished second last fall in the similar Grade 2 Joe Hernandez Stakes, where he also earned a 115. Mike Smith rides him today. I think both horses will run races similar to those they ran previously. Either of these horses could win or finish second.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Sumter, Freedom’s Not Free at 5 to 2 or higher.
Exacta: Box Sumter, Freedom’s Not Free