Morning Lines, Value and Going For It
The morning line as well as value have different meanings for different players. I always say to each their own and that applies here especially if however you approach these two aspects of the game is working for you.
For me the morning line isn’t that important with one exception. I usually have my own opinion of where the odds will end up, but the morning line will help point the public to some horses and away from others. If it is steering them away from a horse I like then I’m liking that morning line. If it steers the public towards one I like than I don’t like the morning line. It really doesn’t affect my wagering all that much. The final odds are much more meaningful for me.
Value for me is getting a nice return on your investment or getting a price higher than your opinion of the wagers or horses chances of winning.
On Saturday at Tampa there is a scenario that checks both these boxes for me and the point of this discussion is how I approach that situation.
Over the years I have written and talked a lot about the only benchmark being if you beat the game, cashing less tickets but winning more money and making it count when you’re right.
In the 7th race at Tampa on Saturday The Gasparilla Stakes I think a horse who is a lofty 30-1 on the morning line is dangerous and has a decent chance of winning. Yes, she obviously is 30-1 for a reason and may get beat a dozen lengths but I do not think that chance is all that much greater than her surprising and getting it done.
Tessitura goes from the rail shipping in from Presque Isle racetrack and two decent starts on the synthetic. This will be her first try on the dirt and at seven furlongs. She is a Godolphin homebred, and the mare Octave was a runner for Todd Pletcher and one of her offspring Zingarelli could motor some as well. She’s by Medaglia d’ Oro so breeding wise dirt should be to her liking.
There are no killers in here and her one work on the dirt we see at Tampa was a good one. She may have more speed than she has shown on synthetic on the dirt if she takes to it. While I am not wild about the rail draw here, we don’t have much choice about that but Willie Martinez has been doing this long enough to know how to work out a trip.
I believe when you like a horse 30-1 on the morning line and you will get at post time anything even remotely close to that you have to make it count if you’re right. Most players will bet less on very big price horses they like than the shorter priced ones. In the long run I think that is the wrong approach. The bigger the price the more I like to bet.
I will take a shot with Tessitura on Saturday knowing while it can go either way if it goes my way the risk will be more than worth the reward. That is value and then some in my book. If I didn’t believe she had a good chance of pulling this off I wouldn’t bet a nickel. There is no value in a losing bet.
