The Pennsylvania Derby has steadily grown into one of the most important late-season targets for three-year-olds, a race that can define a season and even shape a championship campaign. Once seen as an afterthought on the calendar, the $1 million feature at Parx has become a proving ground for colts aiming to stamp themselves at the head of the class, or at the very least, set the stage for the Breeders’ Cup.

For Baeza, the stakes could not be higher. He enters in what can only be described as a put up or shut up scenario. If he wants to be taken seriously as a true division leader, he has to deliver here. There are no more excuses, no more “good efforts in defeat.” This is the type of race where a horse with championship ambitions needs to come through, especially against a field that is talented but not insurmountable.

Standing firmly in his way is Goal Oriented, the second choice on the morning line but the way I see it the most likely winner. His upward trajectory and the sense that he has not yet reached his ceiling led me to him for the win.  The caveat, of course, is Parx itself, a quirky surface that some horses just don’t handle and at times has a true inside or outside bias. If he handles it, though, Goal Oriented looks poised to emerge as a late developing top three-year old.

It looks as though Prat may have elected to stay with Baeza. That doesn’t faze me at all. Riders have been wrong before. History offers the classic example: the legendary Bill Shoemaker choosing Hill Rise over Northern Dancer in the Kentucky Derby—a decision that still echoes through the sport’s lore. Goal Oriented also gets Irad Ortiz, not exactly a slouch.

The Pennsylvania Derby may just reshuffle the hierarchy of the three-year-old division. It won’t change the top two, but the rest of the order is subject to change. We’ll see if Baeza can rise to the occasion or if Goal Oriented is ready to seize the spotlight on his way to bigger and better things. My money will be on Goal Oriented who I believe is sitting on his new top race which should be good enough to win here.