The Ruffian and The Peter Pan

Last week we were able to get Deterministic home over at Aqueduct while most eyes were on what was happening in Louisville. We’ll go back to Belmont at the Big A, essentially Aqueduct and see if we can do it again this time in two spots and without all or most eyes focused elsewhere.

The Ruffian has always been a classy race as it should be named for one of the best and fastest ever, Ruffian. This year the race drew 11 going straight down the one turn mile chute at Aqueduct.

I lean to the number 10, My Mane Squeeze a fast and consistent New York Bred filly running in open company.  My Mane Squeeze is three for four at Aqueduct so she is a horse for the course. She is two for two at a mile and has faced competitively as good as anyone else in here as faced. She has one race back off the lay-off in the Grade 1 Madison at Keeneland and I would expect her to go forward off that race especially on a track she likes. The wide draw helps with the long straight run and Manny Franco should be able to sit in the clear and make his move on cue. She has run fast enough to win this on more than one occasion, and I think she will be tough in The Ruffian this year.

The Peter Pan was more difficult for me. This is a mile and an eighth around two turns and features three-year olds who may not have been ready for The Kentucky Derby but likely have The Belmont Stakes on their minds. With just a week until The Preakness it is doubtful any wind up there.

I lean to Hill Road, a horse I bet hard at 30-1 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last November. That was his first start on the dirt, and I thought he was in fact a dirt horse. He surfaced at three in Chad Brown’s barn and was under Derby consideration. He ran a decent third in The Tampa Bay derby with no pace to chase at all and that validated his third-place finish in The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile the day I bet him last year. The main concern with him is yet again pace to setup his late run but he can finish, and I believe is sitting on a big forward move and possibly his best effort to date. He has steady works and picks up Prat, two strong positives.

Enjoy the races.