Three Year Olds in January
It is the time of year when the three-year olds start sorting themselves out and looking for Kentucky Derby points and status. On Saturday we have the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn Park, typically a more respected Derby prep race than the Mucho Macho Man which runs the same day this year at Gulfstream Park. Personally, I thought the Gulfstream Park race came up not only tougher but also had more potential Kentucky Derby starters. We shall see.
While I saw three major contenders for the win in the Smarty Jones in Kale’s Angel, Mo Quality, and Hot Property only two had the look of a potential Derby type horse. Those were Mo Quality and Hot Property. Kale’s Angel who has the rail and likes the track comes off a fast win sprinting and looks very eligible to bounce or regress off that race stretching out. Mo Quality is also stretching out but has two steadily and gradually improving races to build off. He also looks like he will relax during the running as he did in the last maiden breaker until Junior gave him the que and that generally helps horses stretch out. If he can handle two turns as effectively as one, he is one to pay attention to going forward for sure. Hot Property won his only start and that was going long on debut which is not easy. Cox sends him here from the Fair Grounds, so we know they like him and think he is good enough and he lures Prat which is noteworthy. This is the time of the year the top riders are looking for those Derby hopefuls. Coal Battle has won all his starts on the dirt, but I am not sold he is this caliber.
I lean to Mo Quality.
The Mucho Macho Man was harder for me to decipher and looks like it has more potential lined up to me.
Nine are scheduled to go and just about all nine have a shot and wouldn’t be a shocker. While several have three-year old classic potential at this early stage for the win I was torn between two. I lean to Treaty of Rome and McKellen. Ultimately, I decided on Treaty of Rome.
McKellen has a nice win at a mile albeit a one turn mile on debut over this track. He followed that up with a nice second in Kentucky again at a one turn mile. He stretches out here which he is bred to do and goes back to a track he obviously likes. I have no knocks as he can also sit a good trip here which I believe is key, but I just get the feeling Treat of Rome could be better. This colt improved significantly in his second start, and I think he goes forward again. He loses Prat who opted for Brad Cox at Oaklawn, but he gets Dylan Davis who must be as hungry as a wolf who has missed 5 meals for a mount like this at this time of the year. He can also sit a nice trip in a race I think will have plenty of pace.
Not only do we have two potential plays this weekend, but we have two races to watch with interest as they both can lead to bigger and better down the road for us and the connections.
