Key Races & Bets for Saturday November 30th, 2024
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Safely Kept Stakes - Race 7 at Laurel - Post Time 3:31 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Ellen Jay, Sheilahs Warcloud
For exactas: Dazzling Move
Ellen Jay, the first foal of champion Covfefe, has won three races in a row, the most recent a stakes race similar to this one but on turf. She doesn’t need the lead to win but can lead from start to finish if no other horse is aggressive in the early stages. She just ran the best race of her career, with a field high 99 Equibase Speed Figure, following two months off so she should improve second off the layoff and there’s no concern about her moving to dirt from turf for Brad Cox, who has won three of eight with this move in stakes over the past couple of years, with two others finishing second.
Sheilah’s Warcloud earned the second-best last race Equibase Speed Figure in the field, 98, winning a restricted stakes race last month. That win came at this seven-furlong trip over the track so she has a slight experience edge over Ellen Jay, but she is also moving into “open” (non-restricted) company, which is a slight raise in class. These two stick out against the rest in terms of probability to win, and if they both fire we could see a strong battle down to the wire.
Dazzling Move can be used in second on exacta tickets, as she enters the race off a runner-up effort at the distance in a stakes in New York. She won a one-turn mile race at Laurel in allowance company prior o that, with a 100 figure, but her 95 last race figure was lower than the last race figures of both Ellen Jay and Sheilah’s Warcloud. Still, she could split the two top contenders to complete the exacta.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Ellen Jay can be considered for a win bet as a low odds overlay at 3 to 2 or higher.
Sheilah’s Warcloud can also be considered for a win bet at odds of 9 to 5 or more.
Exactas:
Box Ellen Jay and Sheilah’s Warcloud
Ellen Jay and Sheilah’s Warcloud over Ellen Jay, Sheilah’s Warcloud and Dazzling Move
Doubles:
Race 7: Ellen Jay, Sheilah’s Warcloud
Race 8: Petingas Twin, Winterfell, Celtic Contender, Speedyness
Race 7: Ellen Jay
Race 8: Petingas Twin, Winterfell, Celtic Contender, Speedyness
Comely Stakes - Race 9 at Aqueduct - Post Time 3:38 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Life Talk, Alpine Princess
Life Talk is the only one of the three Pletcher trainees I can endorse, because in this race with no horse who has shown a liking for leading early, she can easily procure the front from the start and on a slow pace exactly as she did nearly one year ago this week when winning the Demoiselle Stakes at the same nine-furlong trip here at Aqueduct. She ran poorly in February and April but after nearly six months off got back on track with a fine runner-up finish in a stakes at Churchill Downs. She’s the only horse in the field with a win at this distance and should be tough to catch, and to beat, if Carmouche uses her early speed to get to the front at the start.
Alpine Princess has won four of eight, and she led from start to finish in one of those wins so she too may go to the front and if not she should take up a stalking second position behind Life Talk at the start. Alpine Princess enters the race off a strong win by almost 10 lengths in the Remington Park Oaks and has won back-to-back so certainly could get the job done here.
Handicapper Picks
Win: We should consider win bets on Life Talk at odds of 9 to 5 or more, and on Alpine Princess at odds of 2 to 1 or more.
Exacta: Box Life Talk and Alpine Princess
City of Laurel Stakes - Race 8 at Laurel - Post Time 4:02 PM Eastern
Top win contenders: Petingas Twin, Winterfell, Celtic Contender
Possible additional win contender: Speedyness (but probably only if Lucky Jeremy does not run)
Petingas Twin is an ultra-consistent colt, especially at Laurel where he’s finished first or second in ALL eight races. Overall, he’s been first or second in 11 of 13, including a pair of runner-up efforts at the classified allowance level BUT versus older foes the last two months. He threw in a poor race in August, but at Charles Town, and every other time in the past six months he’s run an “A” race like we should expect of him today.
Winterfell is two-for-two since moving to the Russell barn, who also saddles Play Like a Raven. Toledo has been up for both wins, the most recent on 10/18 which was a dynamite effort when rallying quickly on the turn from fourth to lead into the stretch. This colt has no knocks and may come in a bit under the radar of some bettors since his last win came in a first level allowance race, but he fits on all counts.
Celtic Contender is another riding a two-race winning streak. Both came at Laurel, the most recent in the Maryland Million Sprint. So, while he is moving from restricted to open company, he is also moving from three year olds and upward to just three year olds, the same as both Petingas Twin and Winterfell. Carrasco was aboard for both wins and rides back, so Celtic Contender absolutely rounds out the top three contenders to win this race.
I’ve added Speedyness to the double tickets started in race 7, and above as an additional win contender, but only if Lucky Jeremy doesn’t run. Speedyness has won three of six this year but all were when leading from start to finish. Lucky Jeremy added blinkers two back and showed a lot of early speed in his first start in the new equipment, then even though not getting the lead in his second start in blinkers he tried hard and was close to fast fractions. With the rail, Karamanos will be forced to send him and that will take away any early speed edge Speedyness may have. However, if Lucky Jeremy does not run, Speedyness has a shot to grab the lead and never look back.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Petingas Twin absolutely can be considered for a win bet at 2 to 1 or more, followed by Winterfell at 3 to 1 and Celtic Contender at 7 to 2.
If more than one of the contenders are above fair odds, we can bet more than one of them to win. The best way to do that is to use a “Dutching” tool, which prorates our wagers to maximize our edge. Amwager has a free dutching tool where all you need to do is enter the total amount you want to invest on win bets and the bets are then prorated based on the odds.
Exactas:
Box Petingas Twin, Winterfell and Celtic Contender
IF Lucky Jeremy does not run, play an exacta box consisting of Petingas Twin, Winterfell, Speedyness and Celtic Contender
Hollywood Derby - Race 9 at Del Mar - Post Time 7:30 PM Eastern
Top win contenders: Atitlan, Carson’s Run, Formidable Man, Stay Hot
In spite of having won the similar Grade 2 Twilight Derby last month, at this nine-furlong trip on turf, Atitlan may go to post near the same 6 to 1 odds he was last out. That’s because there are a number of horses the public is likely to focus on ahead of him, such as Stay Hot, who was the 6 to 5 favorite in that race and ended up second, or Cathal, who was a neck behind Stay Hot in third. There’s also Formidable Man, the 6 to 5 winner of the Del Mar Derby at this trip on this turf course when last seen on September 1. That’s fine with me because if he doesn’t get into traffic trouble, Atitlan can win his second graded stakes in a row. He won on this course in July in his second career start, first on grass and first around two turns, at 35 to 1, but he shouldn’t have been that high of a price given his exceptional breeding, being a half-brother to Astronaut, multiple winner of graded stakes on the grass and over a half-million dollars. After his first win, Atitlan suffered from traffic trouble, twice, including when third in the Del Mar Derby, just a length and change from Formidable Man and Stay Hot. In the Twilight Derby, he made an eye-catching move from fourth to first entering the stretch and surged ahead, and with a repeat effort he’s got a good shot to post the mild upset in this race.
Carson’s Run ships in from New York having won two of his last three graded stakes including the Saratoga Derby and Jockey Club Derby. The first of the two was at one mile and three-sixteenths, very similar to this trip, and Dylan Davis, who has been aboard for FOUR of the colt’s five career wins, come in from New York to ride. Similar to Atitlan, in the Jockey Club Derby, Carson’s Run was visually impressive, rallying five wide at the quarter pole to go from sixth to first, winning for the fifth time in his ninth career start. He’s another who lags back early and needs a good trip but if he gets it, he would be no surprise if winning.
Formidable Man hasn’t been seen in nearly three months since taking the similar Del Mar Derby. Rispoli was up for that win and rides back, and that was the colt’s second win in three tries at the distance. Being off three months isn’t a big disadvantage but compared to the others having run eight weeks ago (in the case of Carson’s Run) or five weeks ago (in the case of Atitlan), there’s a small question of fitness the others may not have.
Stay Hot has finished first or second in seven of nine turf races. Both attempts at this distance resulted in runner-up finishes, which came in his two most recent races in the Del Mar Derby and Twilight Derby. He beat some of these three back in the La Jolla Stakes and finished well but not well enough in his two starts since. Stay Hot fires nearly ever time he runs, with his only bad race this year when he shipped to Kentucky on Derby weekend, so we can expect another competitive effort.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Atitlan should be considered for a win bet at odds of 3 to 1 or higher. Carson’s Run has the same fair odds threshold but I doubt he will be that high so we can make money from his winning on exacta and trifecta tickets.
Formidable Man can be considered for a win bet at 7 to 2 or more while Stay Hot might be a good win bet at 9 to 2 or more.
I could see betting the two horses at the highest odds among the four in a race as wide open as this one, using a dutching tool like the one at Amwager.
Exacta and Trifecta: Box Atitlan, Carson’s Run, Formidable Man, Stay Hot
