Key Races & Bets for Saturday March 15th, 2025
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Hutcheson Stakes - Race 4 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 2:20 PM Eastern
Win contenders: Multiverse, Guns Loaded
Multiverse comes off the best race of his career and it was at this distance and over the track five weeks ago. He rallied from sixth of 10 to sweep past and draw off by four lengths with a career best 91 Equibase Speed Figure which is tied with Rolando for the best last race figure in the field. However, Rolando is a need-the-lead type whose only two wins came when in front from the start, and he’s at a disadvantage to Guns Loaded, who draws inside in the gate and who is faster in the first quarter mile. From the outside, Van Dyke can get Multiverse to relax just like last time when the pacesetter ran :45.4 for the opening half mile, in this case with Guns Loaded likely to run under :45, allowing Multiverse to sweep by once again for the win.
Guns Loaded is reunited with Saez, up for his only two wins, one at this six furlong trip and the other at a mile around one turn. He earned a 95 figure in the six furlong win and from the two post is likely to get the early lead as he did that day last November. If he gets no pressure early, Guns Loaded can win but if any of the other four, especially Rolando, put any pressure on him early, it sets up Multiverse for the win.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Multiverse can be considered for a win bet at odds of 8 to 5 or more.
Guns Loaded can be considered for a win bet at 2 to 1 or more.
Jimmy Winkfield Stakes - Race 4 at Aqueduct - Post Time 2:47 PM Eastern
Win contenders: Saxton, T Kraft
For exactas (in second): Ican
Saxton was put in a claiming race for the first time last month, in his sixth career start, and was claimed by high percentage trainer Brittany Russell, who I was surprised doesn’t do much claiming. She’s only claimed 17 horses in the past three years, winning with six, BUT more importantly four of those wins following the claim have come from the last five starters following a claim she’s sent to post. That intrigued me a lot, because the new connections can make a little profit winning here with the $75,000 winner’s share of the purse. Considering Saxton won the first two starts of his career, both sprints, and won his most recent start with a field high 92 Equibase Speed Figure, and that he has the tactical speed to sit third early as need-the-lead types Do It for Michael and Paula’s a Star battle it out early, he gets top billing.
T Kraft also can close into the tiring pacesetters, just as he did last out on February 14 when moving from fourth to first on the turn then drawing off. He improved to a 90 Equibase Speed Figure from 83 one race prior, also when rallying from off the pace. Lezcano was aboard for the first time in the most recent win and rides back and there is little doubt this colt can win if he takes another step forward.
I’ll use Ican in the runner-up spot on exacta tickets as he finished second behind T Kraft last month with an 87 figure. He may not be a need-the-lead type as Do It for Michael and Paula’s a Star appear to be, but he was ridden that way last time. In his only win he closed from third but that was at five furlongs. Still, the outside post gives Franco a shot to relax this colt early and come on a bit late for a piece.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Saxton to win at 9 to 5 or more.
T Kraft to win at 2 to 1 or more.
Exacta: Saxton and T Kraft over Saxton, T Kraft and Ican
Captiva Island Stakes - Race 7 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 3:50 PM Eastern
Win contenders: Bandonarun, Just a Care, Dancing Duchess
This five furlong turf sprint is top heavy in “early speed” types. One of those is Epona’s Hope, and even though she won the similar Ladie’s Turf Sprint over the course at the distance last month, she did so after opening up by two lengths in the stretch and barely hung on. This time she’ll have pace pressure she didn’t have last month, with Tiger Belle getting Saez, who can be very aggressive early and in this case since both the filly’s last two wins came leading from the start, and as she led early in the Soaring Softly Stakes last May, those two alone will likely battle for the lead and be susceptible to being passed late. Throw in R Harper Rose on the rail which forces Zayas to use the filly’s early speed, and we have the makings of a race which will fall apart late for the closers benefit.
Of the trio of closers, the one likely to be more ignored in the wagering than the other two is Bandonarun, as she’s never won a stakes as the other two have. She’s actually never run in a stakes but her strong win at five furlongs on the all-weather last month suggests she can win this. That was her second start since returning from a 15 month layoff and she improved a ton off her comeback fifth place effort. Jaramillo was aboard for the first time and blinkers came off, both which really helped this mare to run a strong race with a 92 Equibase Speed Figure just slightly below the 96 and 99 best figures earned by Dancing Duchess and Just a Care. That 92 figure was the same one Bandonarun earned winning a similar turf sprint before the layoff, following a win and showing she can put “A” races back-to-back, and she’s been working well for Clement since then and so I expect her to run even better third off the layoff.
Just a Care won the Abundantia Stakes at this distance on this course in December after a couple of months off then rallied strongly and nearly caught early leader Epona’s Hope in the Ladie’s Turf Sprint last month. Alvarado was up for the win and not the loss and gets back on, and this filly can add to her record of never being worse than second on the turf at Gulfstream.
Dancing Duchess returns fresh from a six month layoff for Casse and fits perfectly with these as she won the Algonquin Stakes at the distance in the fall of 2023 as a two year old then the Alywow Stakes, another turf sprint, last June. She rallied from last of eight in the Algonquin and will appreciate the tempo here, and her last two workouts coming into the race have been spectacular, particularly her most recent, a half-mile in 47.6 which was the best of 51 on the day.
Handicapper Picks
Win: This is a race to wait until about 10 minutes to post and bet one or two of the three contenders – Bandonarun, Just a Care and Dancing Duchess, at 2 to 1 or more.
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