Blue Grass Stakes – Race 11 at Keeneland – Post Time 6:22 PM Eastern

Top Win Contenders: Further Ado, Class President

Further Ado and Class President are by far the two best horses in this year’s Blue Grass.

Further Ado has an edge because he won last October at Keeneland. It was his third career start and his first race going two turns. That was his best race yet; he won by 20 lengths and earned a 105 Equibase Speed Figure. He then won his next race, the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in November. He rested during the winter but returned to race in the Tampa Derby on March 7, where the winner, The Puma, had two races in 2026, as opposed to Further Ado, who hadn’t run for three months. Still, Further Ado battled head-to-head to the final yards, finishing less than one length behind. The Puma went on to lose the Florida Derby by a nose, which suggests Further Ado should improve significantly in his second race after the layoff. Trainer Brad Cox recently trained seven winners of Grade One stakes for the best three-year-olds, including Essential Quality, who won the 2021 Blue Grass, and his Commandment, who just won the Florida Derby, beating The Puma.

Class President won the Rebel Stakes on March 1. His figures have improved from 84 in his debut to 88 in his second start to 99 in the Rebel. He was second from the mile and battled head and nose all the way to the wire. The runner-up horse was Silent Tactics, who just won the Arkansas Derby. Trainer Todd Pletcher won the Blue Grass with Tapit Trice, who had previously won the Tampa Derby. Class President is on a similar track. Considering Class President’s figure was 11 points higher in his last win, he’s projected to run as well as a 101, putting him right alongside Further Ado.

Although the buzz horse is Reagan’s Honor, because he won in his maiden and an allowance race, where he earned the same 105 figure as Further Ado. However, I don’t see him as a contender. For at least 10 years, all Blue Grass winners have come from stakes races. If this were a horse that had tried stakes before, he might be a potential winner, but I can’t endorse him.

Handicapper Picks

Win bets: Further Ado at 8 to 5 or higher.

Class President at odds 9 to 5 or higher.

Wood Memorial Stakes – Race 12 at Aqueduct – Post Time 6:34 PM Eastern

Top Win Contenders: Steel, Albus

The father-son duo of William and Riley Mott has the top horses in this year’s Wood Memorial Stakes. Both horses won their maidens, with Steel winning his first race and Albus winning his first in his third start. Steel won powerfully, though by a nose, showing maturity as if he had raced many more times. Steel hit the stall as the gate opened, starting last of nine and trailing by 10 lengths after a quarter mile. He was still eighth after the quarter mile, four paths wide and four lengths behind. He passed four horses to reach third at the eighth pole but was still three and a half lengths behind the leader. Steel closed that ground in the final strides to win. He earned an Equibase Speed Figure just three points shy of the likely favorite Iron Honor, who won the Gotham Stakes one month ago. Iron Honor earned an 86 figure in his first start, and if Steel improves the same way Iron Honor did, Steel could win here. Mott has another horse on the Kentucky Derby trail, Chief Wallabee, who missed by a nose in the Fountain of Youth Stakes after his maiden win. Mott previously had the 2025 Horse of the Year Sovereignty, who won the Street Sense Stakes in 2024 after finishing second in his maiden, then won five races, including the Kentucky Derby. Mott doesn’t rush his horses, and if he believes Steel has what it takes, I will trust the Hall of Fame trainer.

Riley Mott also has a promising horse in Albus. This colt finished fourth and then third in his first two starts, in October and November, before being sidelined for three months. He was a different horse in his third race on February 27, where he stalked in second, took the lead at the six-furlong mark, and increased his winning margin by six and three-quarters, earning an 87 figure. Mott has another Derby hopeful, Incredibolt, for the same owner (Pin Oak Stud), who won the Virginia Derby. Albus is expected to improve in his second race of the year.

Handicapper Picks

Win bets: Steel and Albus at 5 to 2 or higher, and I would bet both if both are 3 to 1.

The Santa Derby – Race 10 at Santa Anita – Post Time 7:30 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender: Cherokee Nation

If Cherokee Nation runs the same as in his race on February 27 or better, he is the winner. That was his sixth race after his maiden, where he won by 10 lengths and earned a 103 Equibase Speed Figure. He finished second in two maiden routes, beaten by half a length and a nose. He also ran in two graded stakes. His February 27 race was that good, and if that race had been in a graded stakes (by three-year-olds), it would be the third fastest figure overall for males, only behind the Arkansas Derby winner Renegade with a 107 figure. Stark Contrast is the only horse that earned a higher figure (107) in the Eddie Logan Stakes in January before finishing second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks in March. Cherokee Nation gets the rail and can race in front or second, then power on. Florent Geroux rides him for the first time because Baffert has Juan Hernandez riding Potente, who earned a 94 figure, so he will need to improve by about three lengths. Geroux has ridden for Baffert in nine routes over five years, with four wins, including three other early Derby contenders (Blacksmith, Brant, and Plutarch), none of which is on the Road to the Derby, so Geroux gets this top colt. Cherokee is the horse to beat.

Handicapper Picks

Win bets: Cherokee Nation at odds of 3 to 2 or higher.