Metropolitan Handicap (Grade 1) – Race 11 at Saratoga – Post Time 5:32 PM Eastern
Top Win Contender(s): Antiquarian, Nysos
Trifecta in third: Saudi Crown, Rate by Merit
Among the seven horses, ONLY Antiquarian and Nysos have even a 10% chance of winning.
Antiquarian and Nysos earned Equibase Speed Figures of 110 or better in their last races. Antiquarian earned an 113 when he won the Westchester Stakes at this distance on May 3. Nysos earned a 116 when he finished second, by one length, to Forever Young in the Saudi Cup on February 14. These two remarkable horses won 12 races and finished second five times in 20 races. In the previous eight runnings of the Metropolitan Stakes, every winning horse had won their previous race.
With the exception of his fourth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last November, Antiquarian has finished second in four graded stakes, and his best race was his most recent one. The Westchester effort came after a six-month layoff, and he is expected to improve in his second race of the year.
Nysos was also running a career-best figure in the Saudi Cup, and the horse that beat him is considered the best older handicap horse in the world. Before that, Nysos won four straight races, including the Breeders’ Cup Mile, where he earned an 114 figure after a similar three-month layoff. Trainer Bob Baffert won the Metropolitan Stakes with National Treasure after a fourth-place finish in the Saudi Cup.
So, I am going to bet on Antiquarian to win, as he opens at 6 to 1, compared to 9 to 5 for Nysos. But Nysos can be used in exactas, doubles, and pick 3s.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Antiquarian at 9 to 5 or higher.
Exacta: Nysos over Antiquarian, and box also Nysos and Antiquarian
Trifecta: Nysos, Antiquarian over Nysos, Antiquarian over Saudi Crown, Rate by Merit
Double and Pick 3:
Race 11: Antiquarian, Nysos
Race 12: Bright Picture
Race 13: Powershift, Renegade, Golden Tempo
Manhattan Stakes (Grade 1) – Race 12 at Saratoga – Post Time 6:11 PM Eastern
Top Win Contender(s): Bright Picture
Exactas in second and third in trifectas: Make Me King, Integration, One Stripe, Battle of Normandy
Trifectas in second: Deterministic, Rhetorical
Bright Picture is trained by Andre Fabre, one of the best trainers in history. He is 80 years old and has been the French champion trainer 30 times, including 21 straight years from 1987 to 2007. In his career, he has won many races in North America, including with Flintshire, who won four races and finished second from 2014 through 2016, including five in New York. Fabre hasn’t started a horse in North America since 2021, so when he brought Bright Picture to the States, I took note. Bright Picture won his first two races this year, both at one mile and one-quarter, similar to this mile and three-sixteenth distance.
Bright Picture won his first race this year, the Group 3 Prix Exbury on a left-handed course (as in the U.S.), where he also won his other two races. He then won the Group 2 Prix d’Harcourt. Group 2 European stakes are equivalent to Grade 1 races. Group 1 races in Europe are better than North American Grade 1 races, except for the Breeders’ Cup turf races. So, when Bright Picture finished second in the Group 1 Prix Ganay on April 26, it was good enough to win this year’s Manhattan, where he also earned the 120 Equibase Speed Figure, the best figure in the field, except for the 127 figure Make Me King earned when finishing fourth in the Dubai Turf this March. The winner of the Prix Ganay was Darzy, who won his last race last year, the Group 1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, and has won his two top races since. Given that Darzy would be a heavy favorite in this race, Bright Picture will do nicely.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Bright Picture at 3 to 2 or higher.
I am happy to bet on Bright Picture. Still, there is a chance for profit in exactas and trifectas because I think the other two favorites, Deterministic and Rhetorical, might be better choices than the other four horses, Make Me King, Integration, One Stripe, Battle of Normandy, to finish second.
Exactas: Bright Picture over Make Me King, Integration, One Stripe, Battle of Normandy
Trifectas: Bright Picture over Deterministic, Rhetorical over Make Me King, Integration, One Stripe, Battle of Normandy
Double:
Race 12: Bright Picture
Race 13: Powershift, Renegade, Golden Tempo
Belmont Stakes (Grade 1) – Race 13 at Saratoga – Post Time 7:04 PM Eastern
Top Win Contender(s): Powershift, Renegade, Golden Tempo
Exactas in second: Chief Wallabee, Growth Equity, Emerging Market
Trainer Todd Pletcher has won four times in 12 Belmont Stakes, and his overall record of 4-5-6 in 26 races when he entered two or more horses. In this year’s Belmont Stakes, Pletcher has Powershift, who starts at 12 to 1, and Renegade, the favorite at 2 to 1. Powershift is owned by Mike Repole, while Renegade is owned by Repole and others. The two horses complement each other. Renegade is a deep closer who has raced in seventh or eighth early (excluding his sprint debut), except in the Kentucky Derby, where he was 15th early. He finished first three times and second twice in his five routes. Powershift finished first or second in three races, all routes.
Powershift is the best bet over the two Pletcher runners because he is 12 to 1, having just won his maiden. He draws the two post from the gate and gets Luis Saez. Saez is an exceptionally good jockey on horses with early speed. Powershift will be sent to the front from the start, where the colt will go slowly, as only one other horse, Growth Equity, has any early speed. Jockey Manny Franco gets the six post, and if Growth Equity sits second early, unless this horse is a sacrificial rabbit for his stablemate Emerging Market. Even if Franco decides on Growth Equity, Powershift can still get the catbird seat. Both Powershift and Renegade have worked in company for their last four works.
Irad Ortiz, Jr., has ridden Powershift and Renegade in all wins and seconds (seven races), and obviously, since Renegade was just beaten by a neck in the Kentucky Derby, he is the one he has chosen. Renegade, in his first race this year, moved from sixth to the lead in the last quarter mile to win the Sam F. Davis Stakes, and then from seventh to the lead in the Arkansas Derby. In the Kentucky Derby, he rallied from 12th and just missed by a neck.
So, with no horse except Powershift in front, or if Powershift and Growth Equity battle, Renegade will win or finish second at the worst. If Renegade runs as well as he did in either his last race or the Arkansas Derby, he will win this race.
Golden Tempo ran superbly in the Derby. He has improved in his last three races, earning a 90 figure, then finishing third in the Risen Star Stakes in February, and then a 95 in the Louisiana Derby before earning a 100 figure in the Derby. No other horse in this field has earned 100 figures except Golden Tempo and Renegade. Just like last year’s winner of the Belmont Stakes, Sovereignty has been freshened since the Derby. He too will have a fantastic kick and should finish in the money, but I think Pletcher’s pair should finish first and second (as Mo Donegal and Nest did in 2022) or first and third (as Tapwrit and Patch did in 2017).
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Powershift at 4 to 1 or higher.
Renegade and 9 to 5 or higher.
Golden Tempo at 3 to 1 or higher.
Exacta: Powershift, Renegade, Golden Tempo over Powershift, Renegade, Golden Tempo, Chief Wallabee, Growth Equity, Emerging Market
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